UFC Rio Rancho Prelims preview and predictions (Part I)

Per Haljestam-USA TODAY Sports

Four years after their first battle, Corey Anderson and Jan Blachowicz will meet as top Light Heavyweight contenders this Saturday evening when they headline the latest ESPN+ card in Rio Rancho, New Mexico.

Down at 170 pounds, veteran Diego Sanchez looks to shut down Brazilian wild man Michel Pereira, while Dequan Townsend makes a sub-month turnaround against Devin Clark at Light Heavyweight.

Let’s bang out the last three Prelims and get back to catching all the Oscar winners we missed.

170 lbs.: Tim Means (29-11-1) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (10-1)

“The Dirty Bird’s” brutally efficient Welterweight run gave way to a 1-3 skid, including razor-thin losses to Belal Muhammad and Sérgio Moraes alongside a come-from-behind knockout loss to Niko Price. He got back on track this past December with a guillotine finish of Thiago Alves, just the fifth submission victory of his career. He’s scored 19 knockout wins as a professional.

“D-Rod” put together a four-fight winning streak to earn a Contender Series slot opposite Rico Farrington in July. Despite facing height and reach disadvantages, he utilized aggression and well-timed takedowns to claim a decision, albeit not one that earned him a contract. He steps in for Ramazan Emeev on three weeks’ notice.

If Rodriguez decides to stand and trade with Means, as he seemed happy to do for most of his fight with Farrington despite scoring easy takedowns, he’s screwed. He overcommits badly to his overhand left, leaving his head wide open as he stumbles, and had all sorts of trouble getting inside when Farrington committed to keeping a jab in his face. Means is more than technically savvy enough to take Rodriguez apart in any prolonged exchange.

Where Rodriguez does have a shot is with his ground game, as he’s adept at passing to mount and unleashing heavy punches from there. Historically, though, Means has been extremely difficult to hold down, so Rodriguez will end up trading punches whether he wants to or not. “The Dirty Bird” dissects him for a mid-round mercy stoppage.

Prediction: Means by second-round TKO

135 lbs.: John Dodson (20-11) vs. Nathaniel Wood (16-3)

Dodson, the TUF 14 Bantamweight winner, started his UFC career 5-1 with a narrow loss to Demetrious Johnson as the only blemish. He is just 3-5 since, currently riding a two-fight losing streak courtesy of Jimmie Rivera and Petr Yan. He’ll give up three inches each of height and reach to Wood.

Four consecutive knockout wins under the Cage Warriors banner secured Wood two successful defenses of its Bantamweight title and a UFC berth. He’s been similarly dominant in the Octagon, choking out Johnny Eduardo, Andre Ewell, and Jose Alberto Quiñonez. 14 of his wins have come inside the distance, eight of them by form of knockout.

Dodson’s collapse has less to do with physical decline or fighting above his ideal weight and more to do with the fact that he never evolved. He’s the same low-output, one-handed banger who floored TJ Dillashaw eight years ago, offering little besides his booming overhand left. That’s not to say that can’t win him this fight; we’ve seen Wood badly hurt before and “The Prospect” can’t lean on his wrestling the way he has in previous Octagon appearances.

Still, Wood’s length and far more versatile striking arsenal look like more than the aging “Magician” can handle. His chances of winning comfortably from the outside outweigh Dodson’s chances of finding a one-hitter quitter.

Prediction: Wood by unanimous decision

155 lbs.: Jim Miller (31-13) vs. Scott Holtzman (13-3)

An ongoing battle with Lyme disease and some high-level competition combined to produce a four-fight skid for Miller, who’d previously won three straight. He now finds himself on a 3-1 run, all three wins coming by submission. He’s tapped 17 professional opponents during his 14-year career.

“Hot Sauce” took some time to find his footing in the Octagon, opening his run 2-2, but now finds himself 4-1 in his last five. The current stretch includes an upset knockout of Alan Patrick and a terrific back-and-forth war with Dong Hyun Ma in his most recent effort last August. He is the taller man by an inch but will give up two inches of reach.

Holtzman’s wrestling prowess seems frustratingly inconsistent. He went from completely shutting down Patrick’s takedown offense to surrendering five to Lentz; he can’t afford to have similarly porous defense against Miller, whose top game remains potent enough to trouble top-tier Lightweights.

If Miller’s decline had more to do with wear and age than an enterprising tick, Holtzman’s physical superiority may be enough to earn him the win. Considering what it’s historically taken to knock Miller out and the fact that, outside of Diego Sanchez in 2016, Miller hasn’t lost to a sub-top-15 fighter in his whole career, I say Miller turns the clock back one more time.

Prediction: Miller by first-round submission

It ain’t the prettiest card, but at least we’ll get a new contender out of it. See you Saturday, Maniacs.

Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2020: 9-9