UFC on ESPN+ 28 breakdown: Will it be Kevin Lee or Charles Oliveira with the finish?

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN+ 28.

UFC on ESPN+ 28 takes place Saturday at Ginasio Nilson Nelson in Brasilia, Brazil. The card airs on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.

Kevin Lee (18-5 MMA, 11-5 UFC)

Staple info:

• Height: 5’9″ Age: 27 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 77″
• Last fight: KO win over Gregor Gillespie (Nov. 2, 2019)
• Camp: Tristar Gym (Canada/Las Vegas)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:

+ Regional MMA titles
+ Collegiate wrestler (NCAA Division II)
+ 3 KO victories
+ 8 submission wins
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ Improved overall striking
^ Footwork, fundamentals, accuracy
+ Strong inside of the clinch
+ Excellent offensive and reactive shots
^ Has taken down 14 of 16 UFC opponents
+ Intelligent transitional grappler
^ Positionally aware/fights hands
+ Dangerous back taker
^ Heavy hips and crushing chokes

Charles Oliveira (28-8 MMA, 16-8 UFC)

Staple info:

• Height: 5’10” Age: 30 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 74″
• Last fight: KO win over Jared Gordon(Nov. 16, 2019)
• Camp: Chute Boxe/Macaco Gold Team (Brazil)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:

+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 8 KO victories
+ 18 submission wins
+ 14 first-round finishes
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Improved boxing ability
^ Accurate hooks and uppercuts
+ Solid muay Thai arsenal
^ Dangerous knees and elbows
+ Hard leg kicks
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ Strong takedowns from the clinch
+ Superb transitional grappler
^ Diverse submission acumen

Point of interest: Playing with fire

The main event in Brasilia features a fun matchup between two dangerous grapplers who have proven themselves on the feet.

Coming off an emphatic knockout over Gregor Gillespie, Kevin Lee has reaffirmed the potential that many have pegged him for. Moving his camp to Tristar Gym in Canada, Lee seemingly has been sharpening his already growing arsenal.

From his footwork to fundamentals, Lee has never been shy about shifting to a southpaw stance when attacking his opponent. That said, in Lee’s last outing, he was displaying a much tighter and dedicated boxing game out of an orthodox stance, showing to sit down more on his punches.

“The Motown Phenom” utilized his long jab to set up right hands that either went over his Gillespie’s shoulder or underneath his guard. And when Lee read where his opposition’s head was going, he was quick to intercept it with a devastating switch-kick up high.

Nevertheless, despite Lee’s improved propensity to roll his head off of punches, he still not beyond being stung for his efforts – which is why Charles Oliveira makes for such an interesting matchup.

An offensive marauder who can Thai march forward behind a high guard, “Do Bronx” Oliveira offers a plethora of problems standing. The Brazilian standout also possesses a long, prodding jab that he likes to use to set up right hands and leg kicks.

Once establishing his range, Oliveira is quick to find creative elbows and destructive uppercuts that often change the complexion of a fight at the drop of a dime. However, Oliveira, too, is not beyond getting knocked off course, as his shelling guard style has traditionally opened him up to body damage.

Regardless of which man hurts the other first, you can expect the action to fall to the floor shortly after should both parties still be conscious.

Next point of interest: Protect your neck