UFC Vegas 92: ‘Barboza Vs Murphy’ Predictions

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Vegas 92 mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., May 18, 2024) on ESPN+ from inside the promotion’s APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, featuring a featherweight main event between Top 15 contender Edson Barboza and red-hot up-and-comer Lerone Murphy, a five-round headliner with major title implications for late 2024 and beyond.

Before we dive into the main and co-main event, which includes the 170-pound scrap between welterweight veterans Khaos Williams and Carlston Harris, be sure to bring yourself up to date with all the UFC Vegas 92 news and notes by clicking here. Get all the latest “Barboza vs. Murphy” odds and betting props courtesy of DraftKings right here. In addition, the Sound & Pound podcasters took a closer look at this weekend’s APEX card right here.

145 lbs.: Edson Barboza vs. Lerone Murphy

Edson Barboza

Record: 24-11 | Age: 38 | Betting line: -165
Wins: 14 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 9 DEC | Losses: 4 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 5 DEC
Height: 5’11“ | Reach: 75” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.18 | Striking accuracy: 45%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.34 | Striking Defense: 57%
Takedown Average: 0.48 (50% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 75%
Current Ranking: No. 12 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Sodiq Yusuff

Lerone Murphy

Record: 13-0-1 | Age: 32 | Betting line: +120
Wins: 7 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 6 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 5’9“ | Reach: 73” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.65 | Striking accuracy: 50%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.40 | Striking Defense: 56%
Takedown Average: 1.29 (46% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 46%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Unanimous decision victory over Joshua Culibao

This marks the 30th UFC fight for Edson Barboza, who is just a few months removed from his 14th anniversary with the promotion. You don’t often see that kind of longevity for MMA fighters, particularly at this level, and the Brazilian remains a reliable workhorse that can round out a pay-per-view (PPV) card or headline a “Fight Night” event. He doesn’t always deliver, but a Barboza knockout is typically worth the price of admission and the former lightweight already has 12 post-fight bonuses to his credit, including nine “Fight of the Night” honors. That includes his split decision victory over Sodiq Yusuff at UFC Vegas 81 last fall, his third main event before drawing a tough assignment against an undefeated Brit on the cusp of breaking into the Top 15. Hopefully Barboza isn’t overlooking the English “Miracle” because some of his pre-fight chatter about “BMF” belts has me worried.

“If one guy deserves to fight for the BMF title, it’s me,” Barboza told reporters during the UFC Vegas 92 media day (watch it here). “Who has better highlight knockouts than me? Bro, imagine. I love Max Holloway, he’s one of my favorite fighters ever. I love to watch him fight, and he’s a very nice guy, very family guy, but imagine a fight against him for the BMF belt. It’s going to be very, very good for me and him and the company. Like I said, I have 30 fights in the UFC. I think I deserve that. Of course, my focus is 100 percent on the next one, but I think it’s going to be good.”

Lerone Murphy made his Octagon debut to little fanfare back in late 2019, drawing a last-minute contest opposite Zubaira Tukhugov at UFC 242. What ended in a draw kicked off a five-fight winning streak with a couple of knockouts, and “The Miracle” is looking to build on his unanimous decision victory over Joshua Culibao at UFC London last July. Like any undefeated record, Murphy looks great on paper but his opponents on the regional circuit were so atrocious they make CM Punk look like Georges St. Pierre. I know that sounds harsh but the numbers don’t lie: Martin Fouda, Tyler John Thomas, and Nathan Thompson have a combined record of 20-97. No disrespect to Thompson but I have zero training and zero coordination and could probably do better than 7-41 as a pro fighter. I’m not in the habit of punishing combatants for their strength of schedule because that decision is not up to them, particularly at that level, and Murphy has proven his mettle as legitimate UFC fighter.

It just gets harder to pick him against Barboza when you take a critical look at his resume.

“I visited Las Vegas in 2016 to watch McGregor and Mendes, and since then, I’ve always thought this is a place I need to fight,” Murphy told reporters during the UFC Vegas 92 media day (watch it here). “This is the fight capital. Now, we’re here. This is my opportunity. This is my breakthrough. This is my time to shine now. Who I’m fighting is more so the big thing (over being the main event). I’m fighting Edson Barboza, a legend of the sport, a dangerous fighter. That’s what excited me. A win puts me up there, solidifies my name, puts me among the elite of the elite. It gives me a shot at that Top 10 afterward. If we can get through this fight unscathed and with a win, then I’ll definitely be asking the matchmaker to put me on [UFC 304].”

Bookies have Barboza as the slight underdog, mostly because of his inconsistency. The Brazilian turned 38 back in January and is pretty easy to figure out, all things considered. Murphy will need to disrupt his opponent’s rhythm and cut off space inside the Octagon, forcing Barboza to walk backwards while effectively neutralizing his best weapons. Sounds pretty straightforward, except Murphy will be getting slammed with kicks — in all directions — while trying to accomplish that task. Assuming “The Miracle” can make this a dirty fight, I can easily see him grinding out a decision through repeated takedown attempts and wall-and-stall. That said, 25 minutes is a long time to survive without getting tagged by one of the most dangerous strikers in the division.

Prediction: Barboza def. Murphy by technical knockout

170 lbs.: Kalinn Williams vs. Carlston Harris

Kalinn “Khaos” Williams

Record: 14-3 | Age: 30 | Betting line: -105
Wins: 7 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 6 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 3 DEC
Height: 6’0“ | Reach: 77” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.77 | Striking accuracy: 39%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 5.33 | Striking Defense: 42%
Takedown Average: 0.00 (0% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 80%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Split decision victory over Rolando Bedoya

Carlston “Mocambique” Harris

Record: 19-5 | Age: 36 | Betting line: -125
Wins: 5 KO/TKO, 6 SUB, 8 DEC | Losses: 2 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 3 DEC
Height: 6’0“ | Reach: 76” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 2.93 | Striking accuracy: 49%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.44 | Striking Defense: 53%
Takedown Average: 2.05 (29% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 55%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Submission victory over Jeremiah Wells

Kalinn Williams looked to be an absolute terror for the welterweight division after his late-replacement onboarding back in early 2020. He needed less than 30 seconds to treat Alex Morono the way Kento Nanami treated Haruta Shigemo in Jujutsu Kaisen. Just a couple of months later, “Khaos” replicated that performance with his decapitation of Abdul Razak Alhassan at UFC Vegas 14. Then matchmakers gave Williams a step up in competition and his deficiencies started to reveal themselves, proving the Michigan native is not as effective when his power starts to wane (or gets neutralized altogether). The good news is, at least for UFC Vegas 92, is that “Khaos” will be fighting an equally messy fighter, at least in terms of offense, so this has the potential to earn “Fight of the Night” honors — or be over in the early part of the opening frame.

“I’m ready to go 15 minutes, but all my fights, I don’t see none of my fights going the distance,” Williams told reporters during the UFC Vegas 92 media day (watch it here). “I just feel like whoever is in front of me, the guy isn’t going to last. All it takes is one shot if you make a mistake. Whether I submit him or whether I test that chin out and take his soul from his body, he’s not going to last. But I know you can’t knock everybody out. But that’s just what I plan on doing. I don’t want it to go to a decision. Regardless, I’m going to bring it. Whether I’m the first fight, the last fight, the co-main event — I’m going to bring it just like I’m the main event.”

Carlston Harris has been a nice surprise at 170 pounds and would probably have a better argument for a place in the division Top 15 had the promotion not done him dirty and paired him off against Shavkat Rakhmonov at UFC Vegas 47. “Nomad” was still something of an unknown commodity back then but in hindsight, Harris was doomed from the start. Undaunted, “Mocambique” bounced back with consecutive wins over Jared Gooden and Jeremiah Wells, the latter of which ended with a submission — and a “Performance of the Night” bonus worth $50,000. Harris is more well rounded than Williams but just as sloppy in his offense, so unless he falls back on his wrestling, he may be walking into the lion’s den.

“I never question when UFC gives me any opponent — I just want to fight,” Harris told reporters during the UFC Vegas 92 media day (watch it here). “I never question. No matter who. I just want to fight. I want to be active. I only fight two times a year. That’s not good, man. Two times a year is nothing for an active fighter. Two times a year can’t pay the bills. So for me, the opponent don’t matter. I want at least four fights a year. I’m not injured. I just want to fight. I don’t know what is the UFC agreement. I’m always on my [Instagram page] asking for fights. Finally, they give me Khaos Williams. So it’s good. I never question it. I just want to fight. It don’t matter what name, who and when. I just want to fight.”

Harris broke out his wrestling against Gooden and I suspect he’ll do likewise against Williams. Whether or not he’s effective remains to be seen, though I’m underwhelmed by his success rate of 29 percent. I think “Mocambique” can win this fight if he’s both patient and tactical in his approach, but the more likely scenario is that both fighters come out of the gate with something to prove and just wing punches until someone drops. If that’s the case, it’s hard to bet against “Khaos.”

Prediction: Williams def. Harris by knockout

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MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 92 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ preliminary card matchups, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance (also on ESPN+) at 7 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 92 news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here. For the updated and finalized “Barboza vs. Murphy” fight card and ESPN+ lineup click here.