Barboza Vs. Murphy Betting Odds, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Featherweight strikers Edson Barboza and Lerone Murphy will collide TONIGHT (Sat., May 18, 2024) inside UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 92.

At 38 years of age, Barboza has still got it! Most interpreted his late-career Featherweight move as a bad idea, but the Brazilian has carved out a ranked position for himself and currently rides a two-fight winning streak. He’s a gate keeper to the elite, and his next task is turning away “The Miracle.” Murphy is undefeated as a professional and has won five straight bouts inside the Octagon. He hasn’t fought often enough to really establish himself as a contender, but the English talent aims to make his first main event slot a breakthrough performance.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

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Barboza vs. Murphy Betting Odds

• Edson Barboza victory: -150
• Edson Barboza via TKO/KO/DQ: +250
• Edson Barboza via submission: +2000
• Edson Barboza via decision: +450
• Lerone Murphy victory: +120
• Lerone Murphy via TKO/KO/DQ: +300
• Lerone Murphy via submission: +1400
• Lerone Murphy via decision: +165
• Draw: +5000
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

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How Barboza Wins

Barboza has seen it all inside the UFC’s Octagon. A Muay Thai striker through and through, Barboza is one of the nastiest kickers in the sport’s history, capable of stopping his opponent via low, body, or high kick.

This match up reminds me a lot of Barboza’s last bout opposite Sodiq Yusuff. Yusuff was the younger and more explosive athlete, and he came prepared to take Barboza’s head off early on. When the Brazilian hung tough, however, he was able to take the fight deep and make use of his experience advantage with lots of body work and even occasional takedowns.

This match up reads similar. Murphy has seen Barboza’s losses and is going to come out swinging, and he’s a dangerous finisher in his own right. Barboza has to keep his feet moving and weather that storm, perhaps with an intercepting knee or two in the mix to calm Murphy down.

Murphy isn’t an overwhelming wrestler, so if Barboza can survive the early goings, he will end up in the kind of kickboxing match he desires. Then, he can get to work on breaking Murphy down and pulling ahead late.

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How Murphy Wins

First and foremost, Murphy is a talented athlete with natural knockout power. In the cage, he’s primarily a striker, capable of timing counters and hurting opponents with kicks and knees alike. He’ll wrestle occasionally too, though getting held down on bottom has been an issue for the unbeaten Manchester native.

Barboza has fought in the UFC a ridiculous 29 times, and he’s lost 11 bouts in that span. There is a common element in almost all of those defeats: pressure. Whether it’s wrestling or striking pressure, Barboza’s inability to keep himself off the fence tends to put him in trouble.

Murphy isn’t typically one to explode out of the gates, but it’s a good tactic here. Time after time, top fighters have either been able to stop Barboza or do severe damage by attacking at the first bell. He’s vulnerable, particularly as the years drag on and Barboza endures more of these wars.

Whether the early finish materializes or not, pressure is the key to victory here.

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Barboza vs. Murphy Prediction

It’s hard to feel overly confident in one side or another.

On one hand, Barboza is 38 years old and has a ton of mileage on him. That’s just not a recipe for consistent success below 185 pounds! Conversely, Murphy’s win streak has quite a few iffy moments. He nearly lost to the debuting Gabriel Santos and was thoroughly outwrestled by both Makwan Amirkhani and Zubaira Tukhugov. Simultaneously, he’s managed to show weaknesses and then win anyway, which makes for an unpredictable athlete.

Ultimately, I like Barboza over 25 minutes. He’s still a difficult man to finish, and his Muay Thai is the most standout skill between the two men. He’ll have to endure a bad spot or two, but Barboza should be able to wear down Murphy with consistent kicks to the legs and body, as well as his counter punches.

Even in 2024, few men are 145 pounds are beating Edson Barboza in a kickboxing match.

Prediction: Barboza via decision (+450)