Brown Vs. Zaleski Betting Odds, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight veterans, Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski, will go to war this weekend (Sat., June 1, 2024) at UFC 302 inside Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.

Brown and Zaleski are both great examples of just how difficult it can be to break into Welterweight title contention. Both men have great skills and plenty of high-level experience, and they’ve even enjoyed some long streaks of quality wins. However, neither fully managed to establish themselves as a Top 15 fighter, getting stuck just outside that rank. Subsequently, they’re stuck fighting opposition like each other: competitors nearly as a dangerous as a ranked opponent with relatively little upside to a victory. That’s not a recipe for easy progress or leapfrogs up the ranks, but both have been winning more often than not as of late.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Brown Vs. Zaleski Betting Odds

• Randy Brown victory: -175
• Randy Brown via TKO/KO/DQ: +300
• Randy Brown via submission: +650
• Randy Brown via decision: +175
• Elizeu Zaleski victory: +135
• Elizeu Zaleski via TKO/KO/DQ: +500
• Elizeu Zaleski via submission: +1300
• Elizeu Zaleski via decision: +330
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Brown Wins

Standing 6’3” with a 78-inch reach, Brown is an imposing Welterweight with really sharp boxing. He knows how to use his length well, establishing the jab, doubling it up, then aiming to line a crisp right hand up afterward. All told, Brown has finished 12 foes before the final bell.

In this match, Brown doesn’t have to worry much about the takedown threat. Zaleski is going to trade with him, and Brown wants to make sure those exchanges happen when he’s in control. It’s going to be a battle for range, and whichever man leads the dance is going to have a huge advantage. More specifically, the battle for range may end up a match up of Brown’s jab versus Zaleski’s calf kick.

To ensure he’s able to get the jab off, Brown has to make a couple adjustments. Lots of feints will be necessary, as he’s going to want to draw that low kick out. I’d like to see Brown both withdrawing his leg — fighters don’t like to keep kicking when they miss their opponent entirely — and stepping up the middle with right hands. If he can deter Zaleski from attacking his lead leg, then Brown can start letting his hands go and make use of his boxing advantage.

How Zaleski Wins

Zaleski is a Muay Thai striker and more consistent knockout artist than his opponent. The Brazilian is an offensive juggernaut, able to endure big shots, thrive in chaos and ultimately walk away from his opponent’s fallen form.

Swinging at air while Brown pokes him in the face at distance wouldn’t be a winning recipe. Fortunately, Zaleski is a great kicker, and that can make up for quite a bit of reach disadvantage. As mentioned above, the calf kick should be a huge weapon for him, as it’s a very viable way to take away the jab and limit an opponent’s mobility.

Lanky fighters like Brown rarely have great calf durability as well.

To help hide those kicks, I’d like to see Zaleski mixing in lots of teeps. His stabbing front kick served a great effect in his last bout against Rinat Fakhretdinov, and they could help him close forward in this match up.

Finally, there’s always a chance Brown is savvy to his kicks and Zaleski gets stuck in a boxing match. If that happens, he has to throw caution to the wind and make it ugly, because he still holds the advantages in pure power and durability.

Brown Vs. Zaleski Prediction

This is going to be a quality striking match.

There are clear paths to victory for each man, as well as clear reasons the other could/should succeed. On one hand, Brown is the superior boxer and has his usual physical advantages. He should be able to touch up Zaleski up with his hands. At the same time, Brown has suffered some knockout losses over the years to big hitters, and Zaleski is an absolute dog capable of gritting out a win.

Ultimately, Brown’s recent performances feel stronger than Zaleski. At 33, he should still be in his prime, whereas 37-year-old Zaleski — despite still winning fights — was likely at his peak during that 2016-2019 win streak. Consequently, Brown should hold a speed advantage, which means that his jab lands while Zaleski’s low kicks whiff.

Win the battle to dictate range, win the fight.

Prediction: Brown via decision (+175)

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 302 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:15 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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