Holland Vs. Oleksiejczuk Betting Odds, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight sluggers Kevin Holland and Michal Oleksiejczuk will go to war this weekend (Sat., June 1, 2024) at UFC 302 inside Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.

For a brief moment, there was hope that Holland’s drop to Welterweight would result in a title run. Losses to Stephen Thompson, Jack Della Maddalena, and Michael Page have erased all momentum, however, so now “Big Mouth” is back in his usual role: fighting anyone, anywhere, and at any weight class.

Poland’s Oleksiejczuk is not a well-known name, but the boxer has been on the UFC roster since 2017 and has picked up some solid victories over the years. He may not be a contender at the moment, but Oleksiejczuk hunts for the knockout and rarely sees the judges’ scorecards.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

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Holland vs. Oleksiejczuk Betting Odds

• Kevin Holland victory: -280
• Kevin Holland via TKO/KO/DQ: +225
• Kevin Holland via submission: +275
• Kevin Holland via decision: +300
• Michal Oleksiejczuk victory: +200
• Michal Oleksiejczuk via TKO/KO/DQ: +300
• Michal Oleksiejczuk via submission: +2500
• Michal Oleksiejczuk via decision: +800
• Draw: +5000
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

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How Holland Wins

Holland is a great finisher. The lanky “Trailblazer” has serious, snappy power in his long punches, as well as a clinch game that can create sudden stoppages. His wrestling defense has come a long way, and Holland has a sneaky jiu-jitsu game as well.

In this match up, Holland will be looking to potshot Oleksiejczuk. The Polish boxer is sharper in extended exchanges, but Holland holds significant advantages in reach and speed. Subsequently, if Holland can keep his feet moving and force Oleksiejczuk to come to him, he can look to tee off then circle away.

Generally, Holland wants to avoid the pocket. Ideally, he’ll be using his funky kicks and straight punches to out-point (and hopefully hurt) Oleksiejczuk, then evade Oleksiejczuk’s aggression. If and when Oleksiejczuk does close into his own boxing range, Holland should be looking to wrap him up in a double-collar tie, land a knee or elbow, then push him away.

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How Oleksiejczuk Wins

With 14 knockout wins in 19 victories, Oleksiejczuk is a proven knockout artist. His best attributes are his speed and body punching, which have put down several opponents inside the Octagon. Admittedly, his defensive wrestling and grappling are less than elite, but that’s unlikely to be a problem in this match up.

Oleksiejczuk can certainly win this fight. On the feet, he has the power and boxing form to outwork Holland, and it’s not generally Holland’s strategy to shoot for takedowns. The key is closing distance, getting to a place where Oleksiejczuk can build combinations and land his shots.

Body work is a big part of Oleksiejczuk’s game and should be important here, seeing as Holland’s chin is made of cement. Perhaps more vital is his ability to cut the cage, however. Oleksiejczuk is going to have to walk through fire to close range, but if Holland just resets and sticks him with another 1-2, nothing is gained. Oleksiejczuk has to corner him and started roasting the ribs, which will slow Holland down and allow connections upstairs.

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Holland vs. Oleksiejczuk Prediction

This should be a lot of fun.

I actually expect a competitive kickboxing match. Despite Holland’s superior resume and credentials, I wouldn’t consider him a significantly better striker than Oleksiejczuk. However, there is a significant difference in durability here. Oleksiejczuk is a gamer, but we’ve seen him run over by more physical talent in the past.

“Big Mouth,” meanwhile, can walk through sledgehammers and make jokes about it. In a fight between offensive talents, that feels like a difference-maker.

Prediction: Holland via decision (+300)

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