Strickland Vs. Costa Betting Odds, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight contenders, Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa, will collide this weekend (Sat., June 1, 2024) at UFC 302 inside Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.

Less than a year ago, Strickland did the impossible, escaping UFC Apex to dethrone Israel Adesanya … on short-notice circumstances. He became a star over night — in a weird, Strickland-y sort of way — but lost his title almost immediately. Fortunately, with a victory here, Strickland is back in the mix, lined up nicely for huge rematches with either Adesanya or Du Plessis.

Costa, meanwhile, put on his best performance in recent memory against Robert Whittaker, but it wasn’t enough to defeat the veteran Aussie. It’s good to see the Brazilian fighting more actively after negotiating a new contract, but Costa has to get back in the win column if he’s to remain atop Middleweight.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

Strickland vs. Costa Betting Odds

• Sean Strickland victory: -260
• Sean Strickland via TKO/KO/DQ: +150
• Sean Strickland via submission: +1200
• Sean Strickland via decision: +200
• Paulo Costa victory: +185
• Paulo Costa via TKO/KO/DQ: +300
• Paulo Costa via submission: +2500
• Paulo Costa via decision: +800
• Draw: +5000
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Strickland Wins

Strickland is one of the best defensive fighters in the sport, the rare mixed martial arts (MMA) fighter truly comfortable standing in the pocket and parrying off shots. He combines that comfort with a high work rate and sharp jab, though Strickland has faced criticism for failing to build beyond those tools.

In this match up, Strickland has to ensure the jab is the difference maker. Nobody is wrestling here — it’ll be a kickboxing match. If Strickland cannot establish his jab, he’s going to end up stuck on the fence, eating body shots — not a fun place to be against “Borrachinha.”

Fortunately, Costa’s face tends to be a magnet for jabs. Between his jabs and teeps, Strickland should be able to make pressuring difficult. As soon as Costa is a bit more hesitant to step forward, Strickland can look to take the initiative himself and start moving Costa backward. If Strickland really wants to make a statement and leapfrog the Khamzat vs. Whittaker winner, he may also want to start following that jab with his right hand.

How Costa Wins

Costa is a marauder. He’s best known for bullying his opponents, herding them to the fence with kicks and combinations then unleashing towards the mid-section. He’s fully capable of tanking his foe’s counter fire, and in his last bout, Costa showed an improved jab.

Costa did some good things against Whittaker, most notably that fast snappy jab. However, he made a tactical error, trying to out-slick the former champion at distance rather than pressure. It nearly resulted in the wheel kick KO, but over time, Whittaker proved himself superior in that range.

To defeat Strickland, Costa has to add his new tools into his old game plan. He’s not going to outbox Strickland in the open, but a fast jab can help him maneuver Strickland towards the fence. That will always be where Costa is most dangerous, and he stands his best shot at breaking through Strickland’s defenses there.

Body work is a huge aspect of Costa’s game, and it should absolutely be a huge focus here. Dricus Du Plessis did a great job of kicking through Strickland’s defenses — Strickland was feeling those blocked and checked kicks, and it wore him down. Costa can do the same with his powerful kicking game, but he can expand upon the attritional damage with lots of rib roasting hooks.

Strickland vs. Costa Prediction

I see almost zero chance this fight doesn’t end up a very competitive, 25-minute fight. That’s historically what happens when you pair Strickland up with a more powerful, but less pretty striker (like Jared Cannonier and Du Plessis). Strickland is good enough to win exchanges, but he’s also the smaller puncher, which can be a hard sell for the judges.

At this point, we know exceedingly well what Strickland brings to the table and shouldn’t expect much different. The question is whether Costa can put it all together? Between his body work, volume, and athleticism, “Borrachinha” has all the tools necessary to win rounds and shift the damage in his favor.

Betting on a smart showing from Costa is a gamble to say the least, but I think he’s moving in the right direction. Strickland isn’t nearly as mobile as Whittaker — or as good generally — meaning Costa will be more easily able to find the pocket and let his combos fly.

Prediction: Costa via decision (+800)

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 302 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:15 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 302: “Makhachev vs. Poirier” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.