MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 302 co-main event between former middleweight champion Sean Strickland and Paulo Costa.

Sean Strickland UFC 302 preview

Staple info:

• Height: 6’1″ Age: 33 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 76″
• Last fight: Decision loss to Dricus Du Plessis (Jan. 20, 2024)
• Camp: Xtreme Couture MMA (Las Vegas, NV)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC middleweight champion
+ King of the Cage middleweight title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 11 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ 22-3 in the middleweight division
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Long and accurate jab
^ Coming forward or off the backfoot
+ Solid inside of the clinch
^ Strikes well off the breaks
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Good transitional grappler
^ From top or bottom

Paulo Costa UFC 302 preview

Staple info:

• Height: 6’1″ Age: 33 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 72″
• Last fight: Decision loss to Robert Whittaker (February 17, 2024)
• Camp: Team Borrachinha (Brazil)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ “TUF: Brazil 3” alum
+ Jungle Fight middleweight title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ 11 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Imposing pressure
^ Feints, stalks, corrals
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Variates rhythm, looks and levels
+ Strong inside of the clinch
^ Shows wrestling fundamentals
+ Works well from topside
^ Rides, transitions, strikes

Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa point of interest: Middleweight mashup

The co-main event for UFC 302 features a pairing of middleweights who aren’t afraid to get messy on their feet.

Fighting to his frame, Stickland does a decent job of staying long with the occasional front teep and a series of stinging jabs. Whether he is circling with his jab off the counter or connecting it to crosses down the center line, the jab is a shot that Strickland has had a nice feel for since entering the organization.

When feeling in stride, Strickland isn’t afraid to shift stances mid-combination to better target fleeing foes. Opposite opponents like Krzysztof Jotko, Strickland was able to utilize said shifts to fuel a steady dose of low kicks that were quite effective.

Still, despite being a fighter who can do his share of countering, Strickland himself is not beyond being countered due to his upright posture and a propensity to sometimes move and follow in straight lines.

However, since teaming up with Xtreme Couture’s Eric Nicksick, Strickland has done a much better job of controlling the cage, which, in turn, helped him turn in one of the biggest upsets of 2023 when he took the title from Israel Adesanya.

Nevertheless, Strickland will still need to respect what Paulo Costa is throwing back at him.

An imposing competitor by nature, Costa traditionally likes to pressure his prey toward the fence.

Whether Costa is baiting opponents with feints into crushing hooks and body kicks, or crashing the distance to intercept his opposition with a devastating cross, the Brazilian seems to be genuinely comfortable inside of exchanges.

Even when caught clean, Costa will no-sell his opponent’s shots as he returns fire right back in their face, but with an adjusted and varied rhythm. For me, it is an impressive feat to see a young fighter who otherwise seems like a bully using subtle tactics like rhythm and level changes to avoid predictability with strikes.

Costa’s shot selection is also useful when it comes to corralling his opposition in between the cage and inner-black octagon lines – a place where his power comes to life. That said, Costa did display some solid jabbing tactics in his last outing opposite Robert Whittaker, as well as a deceptively accurate spin kick that could give Strickland flashbacks to his loss to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos down at welterweight.

Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa breakdown: Potential grappling threats

Considering that “Borrachinha” initially came from a base in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, I will be curious to see if he looks to surprise the former champion by revisiting his roots.

During his brief stint on “The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 3,” we saw a very green version of Costa using cage pressure and takedowns to seal the deal on fighters before running out of gas and losing a split-decision (exhibition bout) to Marcio Alexandre on the show. Although the latest iteration of Costa has moved heavily toward the striking realm, I have to imagine that the Mineiro champion of jiu-jitsu’s ground game is still firmly intact.

When competing under the Jungle Fight banner, Costa demonstrated an ability to transition and ride while striking, appearing to maintain a good sense of positional IQ and awareness. But if the Brazilian does intend on taking Strickland down, then Costa will need to come correct with his setups and executions.

Sure, former UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman was able to largely dominate Strickland to a decision win; but other than that, Strickland has made a solid account for himself within the wrestling realm since stepping onto the UFC scene.

Offensively, Strickland still shows the ability to hit level-changing doubles when he needs to, as well as helpful shuck-by’s from the body lock position that allows him to get an angle on his opponent’s back (which are all good signs considering the damage Strickland sustained in a motorcycle accident a few years back).

Although we haven’t had to see much shot defense from Strickland since his return to the middleweight division, the 33-year-old American always has done a decent job of either separating his opposition’s grips or sprawling and shutting down their takedown attempts outright.

Strickland also appears fairly flexible in scrambles, showing a solid sense of hip awareness and leg dexterity to boot.

Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa odds

The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the American fighter, listing Stickland -265 and Costa +200 via FanDuel.

Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa prediction, pick

Despite this line starting to get a bit wide for my liking, I don’t disagree with Strickland being favored from a betting perspective.

The outspoken American is undeniably a wildcard outside of the octagon, but inside Strickland is one of the more consistent fighters that this division has to offer. Whereas Costa, who is a character inside and out of the cage, can be much harder to predict.

Stylistically, the fighter who is moving forward should have an inherent advantage in exchanges.

Both men aren’t shy about coming forward, but I’d argue that Strickland is the more flexible fighter in regards to operating off the backfoot when he needs to. Add in the fact that straight shots from either stance seem to be Costa’s common culprit, and I can’t help but side with Strickland in this spot.

Unless Costa can emphatically bring to light Strickland’s left-sided strike susceptibilities with a hook or a spin kick, then I suspect that the former champion can pull away from his Brazilian foe down the stretch for a competitive win on the scorecards.

Prediction: Strickland by decision

Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa start time, where to watch

Strickland and Costa are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 11:45 p.m. ET. The fight streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view.

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 302.