UFC Vegas 93: Best betting props, parlays and picks | Perez vs. Taira

UFC Vegas 93 goes down this weekend (Sat., June 15, 2024) with hot prospect Tatsuro Taira meeting savy vet Alex Perez. Checkout all the odds right here …

UFC Vegas 93 takes place this weekend (Sat., June 15, 2024) inside the UFC APEX in Enterprise, Nevada. Flyweights occupy the main event slots with undefeated Japanese prospect Tatsuro Taira facing tough veteran Alex Perez. In this bout Taira will be hoping to graduate from hot prospect to contender. However, Perez will be on the hunt to stop his hype train and win back-to-back fights as an underdog.

Our co-main event is Ikram Aliskerov vs. Antonio Trocoli in the Middleweight division. Also on the main card is Miles Johns vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade and Adam Fugitt vs. Josh Quinlan.

The “Prelims” are headlined by more Flyweights with Tagir Ulanbekov meeting the exciting Joshau Van. This portion of the card also has Shayilan Nuerdanbieke vs. Melquizael Costa.

This card might remind fans of a certain age (me) of the WEC days, with all fights (other than the co-main) taking place at 170 lbs of lower. I don’t need to tell you that there isn’t much name value on this card. However, Taira has turned himself into a must-watch prospect.

Let’s check out the moneylines on Perez vs. Taira and all the other bouts on the card…

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UFC Vegas 93 Main Card Money Line Odds

Alex Perez (+154) vs. Tatsuro Taira (-185)

It feels like Tatsuro Taira can do it all. He’s extremely dangerous on the ground and, as demonstrated by his TKO over Carlos Hernandez last time out (see that here), he’s got a stand-up game, too. That win took Taira to 15-0 and, more impressively, 5-0 in the UFC. He’s had fights with tougher opponents fall through as of late (David Dvorak and Tim Elliott) and he was due to fight Joshua Van in January before the match makers decided to split them up on this card. Despite the roller coaster to get here I think this is an excellent booking for Taira. In Alex Perez he meets a ranked veteran who can test his credentials as a potential contender in the Flyweight division.

The 32-year-old Perez has been with the UFC since 2017, coming off the first season of the Contender Series. He’s been a solid Flyweight for the promotion, elevating himself over the unranked to earn fights with the big names in the division. He was second best against Deiveson Figueiredo, Alexandre Pantoja and Muhammad Mokaev. But two months ago he showed that he’s not someone you should take lightly.

In the main event of UFC Vegas 91 Perez let his hands go to defeat the favored Matheus Nicolau with a crushing right hook in the second round (see it here).

Perez was initially due to fight Tagir Ulanbekov on this card. However, Ulanbekov is who the UFC have decided to match with Van.

I think Perez will struggle with Taira in this bout. Taira has a five inch reach advantage and he is defensively solid on the feet (just 1.15 significant strikes absorbed per minute). Perez may struggle to get inside against him and land what he showed to be his hardest shot. Perez has good takedown defense (82%), but over five rounds I would expect Taira to find a way to get him down to the mat. Once they are on the ground, I think you have to fancy Taira to find a submission (Perez has been submitted five times in his career, with three of those losses against fighters well below UFC level competition).

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Ikram Aliskerov (-1200) vs. Antonio Trocoli (+750)

Dagestan’s Ikram Aliskerov is an enormous betting favorite against the Brazilian Antonio Trocoli. And for good reason. Aliskerov has looked phenomenal since joining the UFC and has won his first three Octagon contests with an amount of flair that we’re not accustomed to seeing from the brutally efficient sambo-stylists from the Caucasus. After a slick kimura on the Contender Series, Aliskerov obliterated Phil Hawes with a first round KO (check it out here) and then blew up Warlley Alves with flying knee (see that here). Aliskerov is now 15-1 and his only loss is to some guy called Khamzat Chimaev.

I don’t want to sound too disrespectful here, and anything can happen in a fight, but Trocoli seems like a warm body they have brought in to give Aliskerov another highlight before he moves on to bigger and better things. Trocoli (whose first stint in UFC ended with a positive test for nandrolone) was re-signed out of the Brazilian scene to fight Ovince St. Preux, at light heavyweight, in December. However, Trocoli had to withdraw. He then pulled out of a fight against Oumar Sy, again at light heavyweight.

This sequence of events feels hearkens back to the Joe Silva method of punishing fighters with increasingly harder opponents if they reject or pull out of fights. The only times Trocoli fought outside of Brazil he lost to Dhiego Lima and Jacob Volkmann. +750 looks high, but it should be twice that.

If you are desperate to make a case for Trocoli you can point to his size advantage. He’s five inches taller than Aliskerov and has a six inch reach advantage.

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Timothy Cuamba (-205) vs. Lucas Almeida (+170)

It’s pretty sad that we’re only three fights down from the top of the card and we’re met with two fighters who would be more at home on the Contender Series than an actual fight night event. Both these guys came through the Contender Series, with Cuamba winning a decision in 2023 and failing to secure a contract initially. He had to get a win in Tuff-N-Uff before being signed to the UFC proper, where he lost a split decision to Bolaji Oki in February.

Lucas Almeida lost his Contender Series fight, against Daniel Zellhuber in 2021, and needed a Jungle Fight win before he could get signed to the UFC. In his debut he took out Michael Trizano (see it here), but has since lost to Pat Sabatini (submission) and Andre Fili (TKO — see it here).

Neither of these guys seem to have much of a future in the UFC, but hey, it’s all content, right?

Cuamba is the slight favorite for this one. Perhaps the bookies are excusing his debut loss due to the fact he went up in weight to fight Oki. Both guys have a lot of finishes on the regional scene, the older Almeida might fade is these two decide to scrap.

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Miles Johns (-130) vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade (+110)

This is a pick’em with both guys being pretty well-rounded fighters who don’t particularly excel at any aspect of the game. Douglas Silva de Andrade has a big experience advantage over Johns, though. The 38-year-old Brazilian has fought (and lost to) Petr Yan, Rob Font, Lerone Murphy and Said Nurmagomedov. And he has wins over Marlon Vera and Renan Barao. He’s a pretty tough out for anyone who is not a household name in the division. Miles Johns’ losses are to Mario Bautista and John Castaneda (who was outclassed by Daniel Marcos last week).

Despite the age-gap here, I like De Andrade in this match-up. I think he’ll be too tough and too savvy for Johns, able to stuff takedowns and impose his striking game on route to a decision victory.

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Assu Almabayev (-575) vs. Jose Johnson (+425)

Jose Johnson is a big underdog here against Kazah fighter Assu Almabayev. Johnson is 1-1 in both the UFC proper and the Contender Series (and 16-8 on his career). His best win is a third round submission over Chad Anheliger. Almabayev is 19-2 and he’s undefeated since 2017. One of his two losses is against Tagir Ulanbekov (who is featured further down the card). Almabayev has looked good in his two UFC bouts so far, submitting Ode Osbourne and then taking a decision over CJ Vergara.

This is Johnson’s first ever cut to Flyweight. He fought as a Featherweight in 2022 and a Lightweight in 2019. Almabayev is a natural Flyweight. He’ll be giving up a ton of size to Johnson (eight inches in height and six inches in reach), but I’m worried about how much the cut could deplete Johnson.

Almabayev should be able to get to Johnson’s long legs and take him down on repeat. Almabayev gets 7.12 takedowns per 15 minutes and Johnson has a dreadful 36% takedown defence. Almabayev is well worth his short odds here.

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Josh Quinlan (-125) vs. Adam Fugitt (+105)

Both these guys are yet to find their stride in the UFC. And it’s not a given that either will. Josh Quinlan was beat up by Danny Barlow in February. Before that he lost a decision to Trey Waters. His only UFC win is his KO victory over Jason Witt in 2022 (see it here). Adam Fugitt was submitted by Mike Mallott in his last fight. He has a win over Yusaku Kinoshita, but that came after TKO loss to Michael Morales.

Fugitt has a five inch reach advantage and has shown better accuracy and defense in his striking than Quinlan, in the few UFC fights they have been in. Fugitt offers more of a takedown threat, too. For these reason I’m inclined to take him over Quinlan here.

UFC Vegas 93 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

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Tagir Ulanbekov (-230) vs. Joshua Van (+190)

I’m not sure why this fight is on the prelims. It should be a pretty fun scrap. Joshau Van is 3-0 in the UFC after taking a split decision over Zhalgas Zhumagulov and then a unanimous decision over Kevin Borjas. Last time out he stopped Felipe Bunes with ground and pound. He’s 10-1 with his only loss coming to Devon Jackson in 2021.

Tagir Ulanbekov is 15-2. His losses are pretty respectable. He lost to Zhumagulov in Fight Nights Global in 2018 and then lost to Tim Elliott at UFC 272 in 2022, both were decisions. His UFC wins are against Bruno Silva, Allan Nascimento, Nate Maness and Cody Durden. Those last two wins were by submission.

Ulanbekov has that typical sambo/smother game and it may very well be too much for Van to handle. Van has certainly never faced anyone like Ulanbekov before. He did well against Zhumagluov (stuffing four of five takedowns), but Ulanbekov is a better takedown artist than that. Van’s activity and striking makes him an interesting challenge for Ulanbekov and I’m a little tempted to pick him, but I need to remember that Ulanbekov should be prepared for that and be able to get around Van’s strikes to land his takedowns.

Jimmy Flick (+370) vs. Nate Maness (-485)

Jimmy Flick is the big underdog here. The big question on him is his chin. Six of his seven pro losses are K/TKO. Nate Maness is not a killer on the feet, but his hands should be heavy enough to cause Flick problems, especially if Flick tries to hang out on the bottom too long looking for submissions.

Brady Hiestand (+154) vs. Garrett Armfield (-185)

Garrett Armfield’s win over Brad Katona looks pretty good right now. He’s the better striker in this match-up and he should be able to avoid most of Brady Heistand’s takedowns.

Carli Judice (+130) vs. Gabriella Fernandes (-155)

Carli Judice’s lone UFC experience is a split decision loss to Ernesta Kareckaite on the Contender Series (Kareckaite didn’t look great in her full UFC debut recently). Gabriella Fernandes is 0-2 after losing to Jasmine Jasudavicius in her debut (tough booking there) and Tereza Bleda. She’s a former LFA champion. The oddsmakers must believe Fernandes’ grappling is more dangerous than Judice’s punches.

Jeka Saragih (-355) vs. Westin Wilson (+280)

Jeka Saragih is a Road to the UFC finalist. After losing to Anshul Jubli in the final he earned a Performance of the Night bonus when he TKO’d Lucas Alexander in November (see that here). He’s a big favorite against Westin Wilson who is two fights into his UFC career at 35-years-old. He’s lost both those bouts via TKO, to Joanderson Brito and Jean Silva. This probably doesn’t go well for Wilson.

Josefine Knutsson (-192) vs. Julia Polastri (+160)

Julia Polastri is a former LFA champ who lost to Jasmine Jasudavicius on the Contender Series in 2021. After she won her LFA title she was given another shot on the Contender Series in 2023 and beat Patricia Alujas via submission. Josefine Knutsson is a hot shot former kickboxer and she has started her UFC career with a decision win on Contender Series followed by a decision win over Marnic Mann. Despite being known for her striking, the undefeated Knutsson showed some wrestling capabilities against Mann.

Melquizael Costa (-198) vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (+164)

Both these guys have been inconsistent in their UFC careers to date. Melquizael Costa is 1-2 in the Octagon. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke is 3-2. Costa is the more potent striker of the two. Costa is also close enough to Nuerdanbieke when it comes to wrestling to not get overwhelmed in that department.

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UFC Vegas 93 Prop Bets And Parlays

Here’s a couple of things that look interesting for this Saturday’s UFC Vegas 93 card …

Tatsuro Taira to beat Alex Perez via submission (+130)

Alex Perez has been susceptible to getting submitted throughout his career (five of eight pro losses by submission) and Tatsuro Taira is one of the better submission artists he’s ever faced. If Taira gets cute and tries to develop his standing in front of Perez, he might learn what Matheus Nicolau did. If Perez is able to land on Taira, that might expedite Taira’s desires to get Perez out of there via the ground.

Jose Johnson total significant strikes landed – Under 25.5 (-115)

Jose Johnson is not going to be spending much time on his feet against Assu Almabayev. Johnson is long and lanky and cutting down to flyweight for the first time in his career. He has awful takedown defense. Ronnie Lawrence took him down twelve times on the contender series. In his last fight Chad Anheliger took him down four times on eight attempts. Almabayev is levels beyond those two when it comes to wrestling, so I think Johnson is going to spend this fight defending on the ground and won’t be getting off many strikes.

Two fight parlay: Josefine Knutsson to defeat Julia Polastri and Adam Fugitt to defeat Josh Quinlan (+211)

Josefine Knutsson is one of the best kickboxers and muay thai fighters to enter the UFC’s womens’ divisions lately. She’s not been coasting on her striking ability in MMA, though, and has been able to take opponents down and wear on them. Julia Polastri has not handled that kind of pressure well in the past. Adam Fugitt has the edge on Josh Quinlan in both striking and wrestling.

Ikram Aliskerov vs. Antonio Trocoli to end in 1st 60 seconds of round 1 (+450)

I have a lot of belief in Ikram Aliskerov and a lot of doubts over Antonio Trocoli. Aliskerov has all the takedowns, submissions and ground strikes you’d expect of someone from his neck of the woods and he’s got some electrifying stand up on top of that. Aliskerov is a fast starter, too. He’s won all his UFC fights in the first round with the longest fight going two minutes and ten seconds. He’s yet to crack 60 seconds, but maybe he does on Saturday.

UFC Vegas 93 Poll Time

Which of the earlier props and parlays do you like the look of the most?

Got something better than those? Well, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them in the comments.

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 93 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 5 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 8 p.m. ET (also on ESPN/ESPN+).

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