Silva Vs. Chiasson Betting Odds, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) women’s Bantamweight talents Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson will go to war weekend (Sat., June 29, 2024) at UFC 303 inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Just six months ago, Silva was favored to become UFC champion. Indeed, she was able to beat up Raquel Pennington for a couple rounds, but then the gas tank began to fade. Soon, her decision-making grew worse and the fight got uglier, and the outcome after 25 minutes was a disappointing defeat. She’ll look to rebound opposite Chiasson — The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) champion — who has flirted with being a top contender for awhile now. The former Featherweight definitely has skills and size for the division, but inconsistency has cost her several winnable fights.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Silva Vs. Chiasson Betting Odds

• Mayra Bueno Silva victory: -125
• Mayra Bueno Silva via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Mayra Bueno Silva via submission: TBD
• Mayra Bueno Silva via decision: TBD
• Macy Chiasson victory: +105
• Macy Chiasson via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Macy Chiasson via submission: TBD
• Macy Chiasson via decision: TBD
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

How Silva Wins

Silva is an unusually gifted finisher for her division. She hits quite hard and is quick to snatch up a submission, as the jiu-jitsu brown belt has won seven bouts via tapout. However, she’s also had a problem with fatiguing and ending up stuck on bottom.

In this bout, I’d like to see tactical pressure from Silva. Both of these women fight far more effectively from the front foot, but Silva has the venom in her punches that should allow her to lead the dance. Chiasson is very much a kicks and clinch fighter, meaning she avoids trading in the pocket when possible.

Silva, conversely, tends to do quite well slinging leather in close quarters. If she’s able to press Chiasson and make her uncomfortable, opportunities will arise, either in the form of a clean right hand connection or a wrap on the neck when Chiasson takes a bad shot. Silva is a fast-starter and Chiasson has been finished in her last two bouts — that could be a recipe for a short night of work!

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

How Chiasson Wins

Chiasson is a scrappy fighter. Her best attributes are likely size and conditioning, as she can push a rather mean and physical pace that breaks opponents. I mentioned above that Silva is well-equipped to finish Chiasson quickly, but at the same time, Chiasson has the tools necessary to exhaust and beat up the Brazilian!

Chiasson has to get the wrestling going sooner than later here. She really doesn’t want to strike with Silva for an extended period of time. Fortunately, her last performance showed an ability to consistently wrestle and remain focused on that game plan. Historically, she’s had difficulty wrestling occasionally then having things come apart, but her showing against Pannie Kianzad was a shutout and exactly the type of strategic focus that’s required here.

This is a match up of former Featherweight and former Flyweight. Chiasson will have a size and strength advantage, and her best path to utilizing those gifts is to drive Silva into the fence and wrestle relentless. She’ll have to mind her neck, but Silva’s offensive potency will drop off after five minutes of the grind.

Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Silva Vs. Chiasson Prediction

This bout really feels like a question of Chiasson’s consistency.

She very clearly has the tools to wrestle Silva, but Chiasson has a history of getting finished in winnable fights. It seems like a focus issue. How else do up explain an upkick to the ribs knockout loss in a fight that she was winning? Generally, defense isn’t her strong suit, and she’s going to have be pretty perfect for at least five minutes.

Ultimately, this one is decided in the first round. Either Chiasson survives and gets the wrestling going, or Silva sits down on a big punch, gets her opponent panicking, and creates an opportunity for the finish.

I’m expecting the latter.

Prediction: Silva victory (-125)

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 303 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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