Smith Vs. Dolidze Betting Odds, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Light Heavyweight veterans Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze will square off this weekend (Sat., June 29, 2024) at UFC 303 inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

This bizarre match up arrives in “Sin City” under the strangest of circumstances. Allow me to briefly recap: Jamahal Hill is supposed to return against rising knockout artist, Khalil Rountree Jr. However, Rountree Jr. is forced out by a tainted supplement, so a different rising knockout artist in Carlos Ulberg stepped up. Then, “Sweet Dreams” went down to injury (again), meaning both halves of the original match up were long gone.

“Lionheart,” as he does, stepped up to the challenge. Unfortunately, Ulberg dipped out for unknown reasons, so UFC matchmakers scoured Las Vegas for an ultra last-second replacement, landing on struggling Middleweight contender Dolidze, who at least does have some 205-pound experience.

Nobody expected this match up, but let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

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Smith Vs. Dolidze Betting Odds

• Anthony Smith victory: +120
• Anthony Smith via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Anthony Smith via submission: TBD
• Anthony Smith via decision: TBD
• Roman Dolidze victory: -142
• Roman Dolidze via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Roman Dolidze via submission: TBD
• Roman Dolidze via decision: TBD
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Photo by Alexandre Loureiro/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

How Smith Wins

Smith is one of the most experienced men on the roster. Tough and well-rounded, Smith has derailed more than a few prospects and picked up wins as the underdog on several occasions.

I’ll be honest: the odds above shocked me, because this feels like a great match up for Smith. Dolidze is not an overpowering wrestling force nor is he particularly adept with low kicks. Those are the two usual ways to defeat Smith, who otherwise can be quite tricky to deal with.

Smith has a major advantage on the feet here. He’s the cleaner, more technical distance striker, and he works at a higher rate. He’ll have to be mindful of Dolidze’s wild swings, but between those flurries, Smith should be picking him apart and making use of his height and reach advantage. Dolidze likes to wrestle in the clinch, and Smith has answers there too in the form of frames and knees.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

How Dolidze Wins

Dolidze is a very unique fighter. He fights brutishly, charging forward and trying to overpower opponents in a very straightforward way. Then, only if taken down, he’ll execute beautiful and intricate jiu-jitsu sequences like a grappling savant.

The question here is how Dolidze brings his jiu-jitsu prowess into play, because he doesn’t seem to have the wrestling outright to drag Smith to the floor. He could pull guard, but that should be a last-ditch desperation option.

Really, Dolidze’s best option is to force a really ugly fight and trust that both will end up exhausted given the short-notice circumstances. If Dolidze is able to charge forward, gain the pocket/clinch, and start wailing away at the body, he can pretty much guarantee two fatigued fighters. Suddenly, the takedown becomes more feasible, and Dolizde could rest and win the fight from top position.

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Smith Vs. Dolidze Prediction

It’s impossible to have full faith in Smith. Despite his toughness, it’s certainly possible to break his confidence in a fight and render him defensive. We’ve seen it several times, and perhaps Dolidze hits hard enough to draw that reaction from “Lionheart.”

That said, this match up seems to strongly favor Smith. He’s the bigger man, better striker and generally fights at a higher pace. Dolidze is not an elite wrestler — particularly at 205 pounds — and his style of wrestling seems more likely to end with him eating knees than landing takedowns.

If Smith performs even reasonably well, he should control this contest from start to finish.

Prediction: Smith victory (+120)

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 303 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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