Biggest UFC 303 Betting Line Movements Tracker

UFC 303 is live this weekend (Sat., June 29, 2024). Here’s a look at all the betting line movements as we head into the weekend and get ready for Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka 2!

UFC 303 (Sat., June 29, 2024) from T-Mobile Arena outside of Las Vegas, Nevada. UFC 303’s pay-per-view (PPV) main card was supposed to feature Conor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler. However, Roadhouse’s Knox was unable to make the date because of a pinky toe injury (seriously). Whether McGregor damaged it in the training room or the dance floor is anyone’s guess.

Stepping in to save the event on short notice is Light Heavyweight champion, Alex Pereira, (who fought with a broken toe at UFC 300). He will be staking his title against Jiri Prochazka, who he beat via controversial technical knockout back in Nov. 2023. The co-main event will see Brian Ortega take on Diego Lopes (now in Lightweight action). Rounding out the main card will be Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze, Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson and Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael Page.

The late “Prelims” will feature Joe Pyfer vs. Marc-Andre Barriault, Cub Swanson vs. Andre Fili and Charles Jourdain vs. Jean Silva. The early “Prelims” are headlined by Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs. Jillian Robertson.

I’ve been watching the lines for all the fights on UFC 303 and tracking the changes to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Below you’ll find all the line movement info since the odds were released (per Best Fight Odds).

UFC 303 PPV Main Card Line Movement Tracker

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Alex Pereira (-146 -3.3%) vs. Jiri Prochazka (+118 +3.2%)

There hasn’t been a lot of movement on this line since it was announced. The line is also similar to where these two closed when they fought each other at UFC 295. This tells us that the public are as split on this one as the oddsmakers, with most favoring the champion to retain his belt, while plenty others think Prochazka was robbed last time out and should be able to get past Poatan with his more well-rounded game.

Betters siding with Prochazka need to be cautious, though. Black magic may be at play here (not even joking), on the part of the Brazilian.

Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images

Brian Ortega (+117 +17.1%) vs. Diego Lopes (-145 -19.6%)

Our co-main event has seen a big swing in the odds. When the lines came out on June 14 Lopes was the slight underdog. However, with the public fading Ortega, we have seen Lopes now established as the favorite.

Despite Ortega beating Yair Rodriguez last time out, Lopes feels like the more relevant and interesting fighter at the moment. And the hype around his potential certainly seems to be winning over a lot of betters here.

This didn’t help, either.

Nevertheless, I liked him as an underdog because of his ability to threaten a finish against Ortega both on the feet and on the ground. I don’t think Ortega can hang with him on the feet and, unlike with past opponents, he won’t have a massive skill advantage if and when they get to the canvas.

Photo by Alexandre Loureiro/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Anthony Smith (+115 -10.5%) vs. Roman Dolidze (-144 +6.3%)

This line has seem a little movement. Smith was a decent-sized underdog when this bout was announced. However, he’s seen some action from the public, bringing his odds down slightly. It’s pretty obvious the reason(s) this has happened. We have a pretty fresh memory of Smith cashing as a big underdog in Rio a few months back, when he guillotined Vitor Petrino in the first round. The action on Smith has lead to a little more value being created on the Dolidze pick. I don’t think Dolidze will walk over Smith, but I trust him to not make a silly mistake like Petrino did.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Mayra Bueno Silva (+100 +25.9%) vs. Macy Chiasson (-107 -55.8%)

This is a very interesting line. Bueno Silva was a -238 favorite and Chiasson was a +195 underdog when these odds were released. It seems the public were loving that plus money on Chiasson over the last week. Her odds especially started to plummet on June 22, 2024.

The fight is now a pick ‘em and I wish I could have gotten Chiasson at +195. I think her size and wrestling are going to cause all kinds of problems for Bueno Silva.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Ian Machado Garry (-148 -18.4%) vs. Michael Page (+135 +17.6%)

This is another fight that has seen a lot of action on its lines. This was a pick ‘em initially. However, there has been a lot of steady action on Garry, pushing him to a solid favorite.

This is good news for the haters. Page is a live dog at +135 and that might grow some more as we get closer to the fight night.

I think this is a really close fight, but a lot of money might be heading Garry’s way because he is more well known to a UFC audience.

UFC 303 Late ‘Prelims’ Line Movement

Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images

Joe Pyfer (-275 -21%) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (+240 +29.8%)

With both men coming off a loss, the bookies initially had this fight as a pick ‘em. However, the public still believe in Pyfer it seems. I do, too, for what it’s worth — at least in this match-up where he is the more dangerous striker and grappler. This line is trending in opposite directions for both men, so if you like Pyfer best get on his odds now before they shrink anymore.

Cub Swanson (+205 +23.1%) vs. Andre Fili (-230 -17%)

The 40-year-old Swanson was getting a little love from Vegas when these odds were first released. However, the public aren’t riding with SoCal’s finest for this fight. Instead they are betting on NorCal’s Fili. That’s good news if you think Swanson’s experience will see him through this fight for what might be one of his last wins in the cage. However, the majority of folks might think all that experience is a negative and that Swanson will simply be too slow for Fili.

Charles Jourdain (-110 +19.8%) vs. Jean Silva (-110 -36.5%)

Silva was a +164 underdog when these lines were first introduced. But, a slow and steady stream of money on the Brazilian has turned this into a pick ‘em. I think this is down to interest on Silva’s potential as a heavy-handed striker. But, it’s also a bit of a condemnation on Jourdain’s status as a favorite. “Air” Jourdain lost to Sean Woodson as a -210 favorite last time out. He also lost to Nathaniel Wood and Julian Erosa as a favorite.

Payton Talbott (-1600 -26.6%) vs. Yanis Ghemmouri (+1000 +66.7%)

Ghemmouri was +240 when these lines first came out. But, the public has been pounding the favorite Talbott here, turning this line into a gaudy mismatch. There must be an incredible amount of confidence in the undefeated (8-0) 25-year-old here. He looked great when he finished Cameron Saaiman in his last fight (see it here), but -1600 feels a little inappropriate. I think Talbott will win, but I won’t judge anyone for putting a little sprinkle on Ghemmouri (anything can happen in MMA, after all).

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

UFC 303 Early ‘Prelims’ Under Card Line Movement

Michelle Waterson-Gomez (+115 -29%) vs. Gillian Robertson (-180 +11.6%)

I’m a little surprised by what’s happening with this line. The public have been betting on Waterson-Gomez enough that she has gone from a sizeable underdog to just a slight dog in her fight with Robertson. I thought things would go the opposite way, with people jumping on Robertson as the favorite here and making her a bedrock of their parlays. Waterson-Gomez is 38 and her last fight was sad to watch. Robertson is peaking and should be able to take down and submit Waterson-Gomez.

Andre Arlovski (+220 -5.5%) vs. Martin Buday (-250 +2%)

Not a lot of movement on this one. The 45-year-old Arlovksi is a decent-sized underdog. However, his name recognition and the unpredictability of the Heavyweight division, is probably preventing the public from jumping on Buday (even though I think he’s one of the biggest locks to win at UFC 303).

Rei Tsuruyu (-450 -3%) vs. Carlos Hernandez (+375 +15.2%)

Tsuruyu is a late replacement in this fight. We’ve not seen much of him. But, what we have seen is very impressive. That was enough for the oddsmakers to give him -450 and the public hasn’t shown any disagreement over this.

Ricky Simon (-235 -11.6%) vs. Vinicius Oliveira (+205 +17.8%)

The oddsmakers have been checked here as the public think their line on Simon was too stingy. Oliveira is coming to the fight off the back of a “Knockout of the Year” candidate. However, the betters don’t think that’s enough to discount what Simon can bring to the table and a belief that he can rag-doll Oliviera on Saturday night.

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

UFC 303 Biggest Line Movements

TLDR: Here are the five biggest line movements at UFC 303:

• Yanis Ghemmouri from a +240 underdog to a +1000 underdog (+66.7%)
• Macy Chiasson from a +195 underdog to a -107 favorite (-55.8%)
• Jean Silva from a +164 underdog to a -102 favorite (-36.5%)
• Marc-Andre Barriault from a +136 underdog to a +240 underdog (+29.8%)
• Michelle Waterson-Gomez from a +225 underdog to a +155 underdog (-29%)

UFC 303 Best Underdogs Bets

We’ve seen a lot of swings on this card, with some underdogs ballooning in price while others have flipped to become favorites (Lopes, Chiasson, Silva).

Of the underdogs left on the board, though, Prochazka and Page have to be the best value. They are both extremely talented fighters in close match-ups. They are both certified finishers, too. I think there’s more chance Page gets by Garry than Prochazka enacts revenge on Pereira, personally.

There are no other underdogs here that I would be tempted to take big swings on. Smith could slip up Dolidze and Ortega might prove his doubters wrong. But, the rest of the dogs on this card have pretty long odds for a reason.

Enough about me, though, which of these underdogs do you like the most?

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 303 fight card, starting with the “Prelims” play-by-play right here and followed by the “Main Card” play-by-play right here. The action begins on ESPN+ with the “Early Prelims” scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET. Those are followed by the “Late Prelims” at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+ before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 303: “Pereira vs. Prochazka 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.