Ortega Vs. Lopes Betting Odds, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Featherweight contenders Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes will collide this weekend (Sat., June 29, 2024) at UFC 303 inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

As far as last-second co-main events go, it doesn’t get much better than this! Ortega may be talking about jumping to Lightweight, but “T-City” is in pretty good position at 145-pounds after stomping Yair Rodriguez to return to the win column. If he can pick up his second win of 2024 here, Ortega could end up scoring his second title shot. Lopes, meanwhile, has been standout from his very first round inside the Octagon. He gave Movsar Evloev hell on extremely short-notice, and since then, he’s proven himself a top talent by utterly starching three straight opponents in less than five minutes combined.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

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Ortega vs. Lopes Betting Odds

• Brian Ortega victory: +124
• Brian Ortega via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Brian Ortega via submission: TBD
• Brian Ortega via decision: TBD
• Diego Lopes victory: -148
• Diego Lopes via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Diego Lopes via submission: TBD
• Diego Lopes via decision: TBD
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

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How Ortega Wins

Ortega is one of the most opportunistic fighters in the game. If he senses any weakness in his opponents, he has a true gift for snatching finishes out of thin air both on the floor and on the feet. Ortega is also one of the most durable men in the business, capable of taking a monstrous beating and still coming back big.

I would not advise playing the role of nail versus Lopes, however. The Brazilian seems to hit unbelievably hard, possibly hard enough to crack Ortega’s legendary chin. Ortega doesn’t really have the defense to not get hit, but he would be wise to meet fire with fire and step to Lopes with confidence.

Ortega is dangerous in the pocket too and has a knack for timing hard counter shots. He can stand toe-to-toe with Lopes, but ultimately, top control might be his best path. If Ortega can survive the early wildness, he could replicate Evloev’s success in dragging Lopes to the floor. Unlike the Russian wrestler, however, Ortega has the grappling to advance position and perhaps threaten Lopes with his submissions.

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How Lopes Wins

Lopes is quickly proving himself one of the best offensive talents in the sport. He’s just vicious everywhere: from his back, in the clinch, at distance, and in the pocket. Large and athletic for the division, Lopes is growing increasingly confident in his ability to just blow opponents out of the water.

Perhaps that happens here, but it wouldn’t be wise to bet on a first-round finish of the inhumanly tough Ortega. There is a real risk that Lopes cracks Ortega, empties his gas tank trying to finish “T-City,” then has to deal with an undeterred Ortega for 10 more minutes.

That’s a situation to be avoided, which means managing energy levels. In general, Lopes’ victory hinges on his ability to make good choices against an elite opponent. He’s got the tools to do a ton of damage, but he has to pick and choose when to engage and when to circle off. Similarly, he doesn’t want to get too submission-happy and end up on bottom repeatedly.

A touch of patience will go a long way for the action fighter.

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Ortega vs. Lopes Prediction

Lopes is finishing fights so quickly that it’s difficult to get a full read on his abilities. At the same time, it’s impossible to argue with his results! Conversely, Ortega is a known quantity, and there’s a reason he’s been ranked in the Top Five for so long.

I have a difficult time seeing the first five minutes going well for Ortega. Lopes is an offensive dynamo, and Ortega’s face seems like a magnet for damage. Two questions rise though: can Lopes finish him with his first-round onslaught, and if not, what does the rest of the fight look like?

I expect Ortega to be bloodied but still swinging come round two. How does Lopes handle that? We’ve seen plenty of prospects crumble when veterans refuse to go away, but I have confidence Lopes can hold it together. He may be just 29 years old, but Lopes is not some fresh-faced rookie. The man has 30 professional fights, including one that went five rounds. He shouldn’t be shocked if the finish refuses to materialize.

Lopes should be able to continue winning the kickboxing battle and score the biggest win of his career as a result.

Prediction: Lopes victory (-148)