UFC 303 Predictions, Preview, And Analysis

No Conor McGregor? No problem!

With “Notorious” injured and unable to compete, reigning light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira, who already saved the day at UFC 300, will once again step up on short notice to defend his 205-pound strap in a five-round rematch against former division titleholder Jiri Prochazka atop the UFC 303 pay-per-view (PPV) event, locked and loaded for Sat., June 29, 2024 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. UFC 303 will mark the Brazilian’s seventh fight in less than two years, six of which have been contested for a championship title.

This weekend’s fight card will also feature an important featherweight clash between former 145-pound title challenger Brian Ortega and red-hot Brazilian sensation Diego Lopes. In addition, Anthony Smith replaces the injured Jamahal Hill to battle late-replacement Roman Dolidze. “The Caucasian” takes over for the wounded Carlos Ulberg, making this an entirely new fight. Elsewhere on the card, Mayra Bueno Silva and Macy Chiasson collide in the women’s bantamweight division (deal with it), not long after welterweight warriors Ian Garry and Michael Page hook ‘em up at 170 pounds.

Get a complete breakdown of all the UFC 303 odds and betting lines HERE.

205 lbs.: UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Alex “Poatan” Pereira (10-2) vs. Jiri “BJP” Prochazka (30-4-1)

Alex Pereira is a special athlete.

It’s becoming increasingly difficult for the promotion to put together marquee matchups, because this generation of fighters want to protect their spot and preserve their paydays. For example, can you tell me when Ilia Topuria plans to make his first 145-pound title defense? Probably not. It took Leon Edwards and Dricus Du Plessis eight months to agree to defend their division titles and Jon Jones? Yeah, let’s not even get started on that one.

UFC 303 will mark Pereira’s fourth title fight in less than a year, two of which came on short notice.

I don’t normally advocate for such a quick turnaround, but “Poatan” didn’t take any damage in his knockout win over Jamahal Hill at UFC 300 back in April. I think it’s fair to say that fans can expect the same version of the Brazilian when he rematches Jiri Prochazka in UFC 303’s five-round main event, which is probably the same version we saw against “BJP” at UFC 295.

Pereira will stand upright, chop at the legs, and swing the left hand hammer of doom.

That posture makes him vulnerable, as we saw against Israel Adesanya. It’s also worth pointing out that he was tagged by Prochazka at UFC 295, as well as Jan Blachowicz at UFC 291. The difference is that “Poatan” can (usually) weather the storm, whereas opponents cannot, which is why Pereira has eight knockouts in 10 wins. My concern here is that Prochazka — who’s been knocked out in three of his four losses — will forget about his Samurai code and fight to win, which may not be that tall of an order if he exploits the champion’s porous takedown defense.

It worked against Glover Teixeira at UFC 275.

Prochazka is the more well-rounded fighter and can win this fight wherever it goes. Yes, the same held true the first time they fought, but now “BJP” understands what he’s up against, as well as the most probable path to victory. Unless he’s that committed to the bushido bit, I don’t envision Prochazka playing the kickboxing game for very long. Instead, he’s likely to cover and smother Pereira like a Denny’s hash brown, breaking a lot of hearts in “Sin City” while also setting up a late 2024 trilogy.

Prediction: Prochazka def. Pereira by submission

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145 lbs.: Brian “T-City” Ortega (16-3, 1 NC) vs. Diego Lopes (24-6)

Brian Ortega is already talking about a jump to lightweight, which makes me wonder how much he invested in this fight, psychologically speaking. Competing as a two-time title challenger, “T-City” carries significant name recognition and usually finds himself at or near the top of every UFC fight card. How much stock you put into Ortega as a featherweight contender may depend on how much you value his recent performance against Yair Rodriguez, which could be looked at as an amazing comeback victory for “T-City” — or an embarrassing collapse for “El Pantera.” Getting lit up then finding a way to battle back and win has been a troubling trend throughout Ortega’s career and it may continue at UFC 303 against a younger but more experienced featherweight in Diego Lopes.

Lopes has been a nice surprise to the stagnant 145-pound weight class. Previously known as UFC flyweight champion Alexa Grasso’s jiu jitsu coach, the Brazilian has been able to establish himself as a legitimate threat to the major players in the division Top 10 after racking up three straight wins with three first-round finishes over the last 10 months. His lone defeat in UFC came against No. 5-ranked Movsar Evloev, a bout Lopes accepted on just five days’ notice. In addition, the former “Contender Series” competitor is now sporting double-digit knockout wins, for those detractors who think Lopes is “just a BJJ guy.”

Ortega has just one knockout win over the last eight years and that came against the mummified remains of Frankie Edgar. “T-City” has typically relied on his jiu jitsu to bail him out of trouble, a failsafe that won’t be operational against a ground wizard like Lopes. I don’t want to get too carried away and start talking about Lopes like he’s Max Holloway or Alex Volkanovski, I just think he’s on his way up and Ortega is on his way down. We’ll find out for certain this Sat. night in “Sin City.”

Prediction: Lopes def. Ortega by technical knockout

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205 lbs: Anthony “Lionheart” Smith (38-19) vs. Roman “The Caucasian” Dolidze (12-3)

No disrespect to either fighter, but if you’re asking Roman Dolidze to step up on two weeks’ notice to fight Anthony Smith at light heavyweight, maybe it’s time to cut your losses and move up a “Prelims” banger to the UFC 303 main card, especially since “Lionheart” is also fighting on short notice. I guess we should just keep our expectations low and be grateful their contest is only staged across three rounds, though cardio issues in the final frame would not surprise me — assuming it lasts that long.

When we last saw Smith, he was strangling Vitor Petrino en route to a massive upset victory at UFC 301 in Brazil. As much as he can rub MMA fans the wrong way, Smith remains a dangerous fighter with 35 finishes in 38 wins. Conversely, he’s also been stopped in 15 of his 19 losses, so one thing you can count on when “Lionheart” fights is Smith living and dying by his sword. Hard not to respect that and probably one of the reasons the former middleweight has over 20 fights for Dana White and Co. over a span of eight years. His biggest issue, at least in terms of reaching the 205-pound mountaintop, has been his consistency, evidenced by a 2-3 record across his last five.

Dolidze deserves credit for answering the UFC 303 call, but let’s be honest, he was hardly in a position to turn it down. “The Caucasian,” once ranked No. 8 in the 185-pound division, is now the loser of back-to-back fights and in danger of falling out of the middleweight Top 10. He also turns 36 in just a few weeks, so if he’s going to get something going, it’s now or never. I don’t want it to sound all doom-and-gloom for Dolidze because most fighters would pull the wings off a butterfly to sport a 12-3 record. In addition, all three losses have come by way of judges’ decision, making Dolidze one of more durable combatants in his weight class. I’m not sure that trend continues this weekend at 205 pounds.

Smith will have a two-inch height advantage on Sat. night but their reach is even at 76 inches with both combatants fighting out of the orthodox stance. I would expect this contest to be decided by whoever controls the wrestling. Smith has his share of problems at times but his level of competition dwarfs the resume of Dolidze, who can’t seem to get himself out of first gear. Look for Smith to frustrate “The Caucasian” and lock up a surprise submission in the second half of the fight.

Prediction: Smith def. Dolidze by submission

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135 lbs.: Mayra Bueno “Sheetara” Silva (10-3-1, 1 NC) vs. Macy Chiasson (9-3)

The jury is still out when it comes to the verdict on Mayra Bueno Silva, which is unusual for a combatant who’s been fighting under the UFC banner for nearly six years. Once a top prospect and winner of Dana White’s “Contender Series” (Brazilian version) back in summer 2018, “Sheetara” has produced mixed results inside the Octagon, compiling a 5-3 record with one draw and one “No Contest,” the result of a positive drug test. Silva’s march toward the bantamweight title ended with a decision loss to grizzled veteran Raquel Pennington at UFC 297, though Silva remains ranked No. 3 at 135 pounds, right behind fellow Brazilian Ketlen Vieira. Defeating the No. 7-ranked Macy Chiasson probably doesn’t do much to elevate her stock, but it should at least prevent her from losing ground as the promotion tries to figure out what to do with Julianna Pena (No. 1) and Kayla Harrison (No. 4).

Chiasson took the harder route to earn her UFC contract, fighting her way through Season 28 of The Ultimate Fighter, taking home the glass trophy with a submission victory over Pannie Kianzad in the live finale. Chiasson would go up two-zip on “Bonzai” when they rematched at UFC Vegas 88, part of a 6-3 run under the UFC umbrella that was consistently inconsistent. Just as it looked as though Chiasson was ready to make a serious run at the 135-pound title, an untimely loss set her back and kept her in the middle of the pack. Against Silva, Chiasson will have a tremendous size advantage, sporting a five-inch advantage in height and six-inch advantage in reach. She’s also proven to be the better wrestler, at least in terms of Octagon statistics, though she may struggle to deal with Silva’s aggression and never-ending pace.

Neither fighter is known for their knockout power so expect three rounds of grappling. If Chiasson can fight a clean, technical contest then I don’t see any reason why she can’t stymie the Brazilian’s attack. My biggest concern is Chiasson becoming careless or getting sloppy in the transitions, which could set her up for a sneaky Silva submission. Barring any boneheaded mistakes, this should be Chiasson’s fight to lose — which is probably why she’ll lose it.

Prediction: Silva def. Chiasson by submission

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170 lbs.: Ian “The Future” Garry (14-0) vs. Michael “Venom” Page (22-2)

Ian Garry remains undefeated under the UFC banner (7-0) and believes he’s destined to win the welterweight title. At just 26 years old and barely entering his competitive prime, there’s no reason to believe it’s not within reach. That said, his star lost some of its shine over the last 10 months following back-to-back decision victories over Neil Magny and Geoff Neal. I don’t want to minimize those performances, because “The Haitian Sensation” and “Handz of Steel” are notoriously tough outs, but it’s hard to accept Garry as the chosen one when Shavkat Rakhmonov is also undefeated at 170 pounds, having already finished both Magny and Neal by submission. In addition, UFC 303 will mark the first time Garry has ever faced a legitimate striker and not just a brawler with heavy hands. It’s also worth mentioning that Michael Page — the same height as Garry at 6’3” — will have a five-inch reach advantage, and is probably the only opponent to date that actually knows how to use it.

Like Garry, the 37 year-old Page has been surfing calm seas for most of his career. Even seasoned MMA fans will struggle to name anyone of note from “Venom’s” hit list, outside of Douglas Lima and Paul “Semtex” Daley. I don’t want to go crazy over his debut win over Kevin Holland at UFC 299, because “Trailblazer” already showed us against Stephen Thompson that he is ill-equipped to deal with long, rangy strikers. Page was a decorated kickboxer with multiple world titles before transitioning to MMA and similar to the aforementioned “Wonderboy,” can be derailed by opponents who avoid the fancy footwork and grind their way to the scorecards. Logan Storley was able to do enough to steal a split from Page at Bellator 281 and it would not surprise me to see Garry follow a similar blueprint. It may depend on how often “The Future” relies on his wrestling, a strategy that factored into his 2023 win over Magny.

This is a fight that deserves five rounds because the opening frame will no doubt serve as an adjustment period for both fighters, based on their respective styles. There’s an argument to be made for Page treating Garry like an Irish Wac-A-Mole, I just have a hard time believing Garry won’t make the necessary adjustments and turn this into a grapple-fest — assuming he doesn’t get his dome dented a la Evangelista Santos back in summer 2016. “The Future” probably won’t be taking home any performance bonuses at UFC 303; but hey, winning ugly is still winning.

Prediction: Garry def. Page by decision

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