Kape Vs. Mokaev Betting Odds, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Flyweight contenders Manel Kape vs. Muhammad Mokaev will square off this weekend (Sat., July 27, 2024) at UFC 304 inside Co-Op Live in Manchester, England.

And it seems they already got things going early (watch it).

Something strange is brewing here. This top-notch Flyweight clash was originally on the main card — that’s why we’re talking about it in this post — but has since been dropped all the way down to the early “Prelims.” Given its status as a possible title eliminator, why the sudden shift in bout position? Fight fans online are wondering if it’s the result of another Manel Kape weight issue, whereas the more optimistic amongst us have theorized that the athletes requested the bout take place earlier on the card to avoid fighting at an ungodly time of day. Whenever it takes place, it’s a great fight that has serious stakes at 125- pounds.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Kape Vs. Mokaev Betting Odds

• Manel Kape victory: +135
• Manel Kape via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Manel Kape via submission: TBD
• Manel Kape via decision: TBD
• Muhammad Mokaev victory: -155
• Muhammad Mokaev via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Muhammad Mokaev via submission: TBD
• Muhammad Mokaev via decision: TBD
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

How Kape Wins

Kape is one of the most athletic men in a very fast division. He puts together his punches beautifully and is very difficult to take down. Historically, low-volume has been his greatest issue, but he’s stepped up the activity in his current win streak.

This is a very clear-cut striker vs. wrestler match up. Kape is the much more skilled and dangerous fighter on the feet, whereas Mokaev has consistently won fights by grounding his opponents and controlling their attempts to scramble. Fortunately for Kape, damage wins fights, and Mokaev has proven unimpressive at actually landing ground strikes when on top.

That means even if Kape is taken down, he can still win the fight by staying active. In general, breaking down Mokaev should be the goal. I’d like to see attritional damage from Kape aimed at the legs and body. In addition, punishing takedown attempts with knees or breaking the clinch with a combination would be a really good way to punctuate exchanges and make it clear that Kape is the man landing the more devastating blows.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

How Mokaev Wins

An extremely accomplished (23-0) amateur fighter, Kape is a freestyle wrestler who has brought explosive shots and excellent control into the Octagon. His kickboxing is developing, but really, it’s been the takedowns that have earned him victory time and time again. He’s now facing the heaviest hitter of his entire career, so it’s hardly time to switch up the game plan!

The key here is getting ahold of Kape, who relies on explosive movements to deny takedowns and escape quickly when taken down. It’s not going to be easy to get a firm grip on “Starboy” or fully establish top position.

Therefore, Mokaev has to make those moments count. Ideally, that means locking in positions like the leg triangle or back mount, where it’s difficult to be so athletic. If Mokaev is losing position, he has to be sure to at least landing something on the break to score some points.

All in all, a consistent wrestling attack is Mokaev’s best — only? — bet here.

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Kape vs. Mokaev Prediction

I’m backing the striker here.

Mokaev is extremely talented for his age and has a ton of upside, but he’s still uncomfortable on his feet. Kape can match — if not exceed — his athleticism, and he’s a much slicker striker with better timing and power overall. If the two trade, Kape will hurt his opponent.

Furthermore, this is a Flyweight fight. It’s very rare for elite Flyweights to just get held down for long portions of time. Kape doesn’t have that issue historically, and there have been moments of opportunity for previous Mokaev opponents like Tim Elliott and Alex Perez.

I’m guessing Kape capitalizes.

Prediction: Manel Kape victory (+135)

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 304 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 304: “Edwards vs. Belal 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.