Noche UFC 306: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili Staff Predictions
Noche UFC (UFC 306) is now only a couple of days away, and what better way to get hyped for the upcoming pay-per-view than with some MMA News staff predictions?
The event will be available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view on Saturday, September 14, 2024. The main card begins at 10 PM ET, while the preliminary card kicks off at 7:30 PM ET.
The main event will see Sean O’Malley make his second defense of the middleweight title. Following his crowning at the expense of Aljamain Sterling, “Sugar” stalled the championship ambitions of Marlon Vera this past March. He’s now tasked with repeating the feat against a teammate of Sterling’s, charging Georgian Merab Dvalishvili.
Co-headlining the Mexican Independence Day celebration, meanwhile, will be the country’s own Alexa Grasso. Having coached opposite one another on this year’s season of The Ultimate Fighter in the time since their rematch ended in a draw, the champ and Valentina Shevchenko will complete their trilogy this weekend.
Elsewhere on the main card, the fast-rising Diego Lopes once again looks to reach the top five at the expense of Brian Ortega, while Mexican prospects Daniel Zellhuber and Ronaldo Rodriguez hope to make the most of their positions on the prominent card.
Noche UFC 306: MMA News Staff Predictions
Ahead of Saturday’s Noche UFC event, Kyle Dimond, Ryan Jarrell, Thomas Albano, Andrew Starc, Pranav Pandey, and Aakrit Sharma have provided their picks for the five matchups set for the main card.
Below, you can check out the current leaderboard through five cards.
- Thomas Albano (19-5)
- Ryan Jarrell (15-9)
- Kyle Dimond (13-11)
- Andrew Starc (7-7)
- Pranav Pandey (1-4)
- Aakrit Sharma (0-0)
And with that, it’s time for the team’s predictions for Noche UFC 306.
Flyweight: Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Ode’ Osbourne
Kyle Dimond: Osbourne has fought some very tough opposition during his UFC career, but the back-to-back losses are the major concern here. On this night of all nights, it feels like the Mexican fighters are going to have some added momentum, which I think will carry Rodriguez through here by way of a submission. (Prediction: Ronaldo Rodriguez)
Ryan Jarrell: Rodriguez looked impressive in his UFC debut, winning by submission in the second round over Denys Bondar. Meanwhile, this will be Osbourne’s tenth fight inside the UFC Octagon. Osbourne has been stopped in his last two fights and desperately needs to secure a win or possibly face losing his job in the world’s largest promotion. This is a tough fight to pick because I expect Osbourne to come out dialed in and looking his best. Rodriguez is the favorite and I can see a path to victory for the younger fighter, but I am picking Osbourne to show some grit and win a tough fought decision. (Prediction: Ode’ Osbourne)
Thomas Albano: Rodriguez has been on an absolute tear ever since his 2020 loss on Dana White’s Contender Series. He’s won six straight, which includes four finishes – with Rodriguez winning his UFC debut by way of a second-round submission of Bondar. Osbourne has proven to be an exciting fighter in his own right. However, momentum is just simply not on his side. And when you look at the capabilities of both men, Rodriguez’s wrestling is more effective, and his fighting style is more dynamic. Rodriguez is continuing to develop into a well-rounded fighter, and this should help him to another finish on a big stage. (Prediction: Ronaldo Rodriguez)
Andrew Starc: Rodriguez is coming into this one off a submission win against Bondar in his UFC debut this past February. The 25-year-old Mexican is unbeaten in his last six fights, while Osbourne has lost three of his last four, including two via submission. Given the lack of grappling defense Osbourne displayed in his last bout, I think he might be ripe for a another sub in this one. (Prediction: Ronaldo Rodriguez)
Pranav Pandey: Rodriguez may still be flying under the radar, but he’s an absolute force inside the cage. His stunning submission victory over Bondar in his debut made it clear he’s anything but his “Lazy Boy” moniker. Rodriguez brings relentless forward pressure and pairs it with elite grappling skills, making him a dangerous opponent for anyone. On the other hand, Osbourne faces some tough questions about his recent form. Having been caught in submissions in his last two fights, along with showing signs of wear from previous battles, I just can’t envision this fight unfolding in favor of “The Jamaican Sensation.” (Prediction: Ronaldo Rodriguez)
Aakrit Sharma: Rodriguez showed toughness in his UFC debut and proved that he poses a submission threat on the ground as well. Osbourne, meanwhile, is coming off two straight submission losses and is unlikely to want the fight on the ground. I believe Rodriguez is the better fighter everywhere despite Osbourne boasting more experience in the UFC. Although “Lazy Boy” should try to take Osbourne down as a submission is his easiest path to victory, I’m predicting a knockout win for him. Osbourne tends to strike with his hands down, giving a sniper like Rodriguez a ton of space to land the perfect knockout blow. (Prediction: Ronaldo Rodriguez)
Consensus: 5-1 Ronaldo Rodriguez
Lightweight: Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics
Kyle Dimond: This should be an absolute firecracker. Ribovics has got some frightening finishes to his name and I think he will test Zellhuber early. That classic Mexican heart is going to be on display here, and I’ve seen more from Zellhuber to suggest that he will do better once this fight goes into deep waters. I expect it to be a barnburner which, slowly, Zellhuber will start to take over in with his pressure and output en route to a TKO finish. (Prediction: Daniel Zellhuber)
Ryan Jarrell: This fight very well could be your fight of the night. Zellhuber has an eight-inch reach advantage and if he uses it effectively, it could be a long night for Ribovics. Having said that, Zellhuber has to be extremely careful with the power that his opponent possesses. We saw Ribovics kick Terrance McKinney into the shadow realm in his last fight, and he has the ability to do it in this fight too. Regardless, I expect Zellhuber to use his reach and fight smartly en route to a decision victory. (Prediction: Daniel Zellhuber)
Thomas Albano: This should be a fun matchup featuring a pair of up-and-coming lightweights. Both men are very talented strikers, and we could be in for a really underrated matchup. Since his win over Lucas Almeida on Dana White’s Contender Series, Zellhuber has won three of four fights he’s had in the UFC, with wins over Lando Vannata, Christos Giagos, and Francisco Prado. Ribovics, meanwhile, has won two of three fights he’s had since his DWCS appearance, including a 37-second knockout of McKinney in May.
If Ribovics is able to get in and land a couple of powerful shots, Zellhuber could find himself in trouble. I, however, feel Zellhuber will be mindful of his distance and look to land from the outside, making solid usage of his significant reach advantage. (Prediction: Daniel Zellhuber)
Andrew Starc: The rangy Zellhuber brings an all-round skillset of striking and grappling to this encounter, along with a three-fight win streak. Ribovics, meanwhile, is coming off a 37-second KO of McKinney in May — one of many knockouts and submissions on his résumé. This will be a contest between two young DWCS alums that I think will be decided by Zellhuber’s superior grappling. (Prediction: Daniel Zellhuber)
Pranav Pandey: This could be an absolute barnburner as both fighters bring well-rounded skillsets to the table. “Golden Boy” enters as the clear favorite, largely due to his significant reach advantage, which could dictate the pace of the fight. Yet, underestimating “El Gringo” would be a mistake. Ribovics not only has the defensive sharpness to evade Zellhuber’s striking but also packs powerful punches that, when paired with his well-timed takedowns, make him a dangerous and unpredictable opponent.
I anticipate this fight unfolding primarily in the striking department, with Ribovics likely keeping his distance and looking to land heavy shots from the outside. The real intrigue, however, lies in how Zellhuber responds, as he’s just as explosive as his opponent. (Prediction: Esteban Ribovics)
Aakrit Sharma: This is my Fight of the Night contender because both fighters are unlikely to shoot for a takedown and have different yet exciting striking styles. “Golden Boy” is a master at managing distance and keeping opponents at bay through teep kicks and knees during the clinch. Ribovics, on the other hand, is a powerful striker who likes to trade in the pocket. His cardio will be an extremely effective tool in this fight, and his pace and power remain the same throughout all three rounds.
Zellhuber’s last win against Prado was extremely impressive as he was more active with punches, kicks, and knees and didn’t get hit a lot like his previous fights. The Mexican struggles against high-paced opponents, though, and Ribovics excels at landing big combinations out of nowhere. Both strikers have a solid chin, so my prediction is Zellhuber to win via decision. (Prediction: Daniel Zellhuber)
Consensus: 5-1 Daniel Zellhuber
Featherweight: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes
Kyle Dimond: When this fight was originally booked for UFC 303, I went with Lopes on the back of his recent form whilst making a note to say that it seems to always be forgotten just how good Ortega is because he’s not that active. Well, after some more time to think about it, I’m going the opposite way.
It does worry me that Lopes throws a lot and Ortega takes too much punishment, even in his wins. I can see this fight being close and I think I’d probably pick Lopes if he had another two rounds to work with. Over three, I think Ortega might be able to hit UFC 306 with another ‘y’all must have forgot’ performance. Or, you could say that to steal a pro wrestling term, I’m going for 50:50 booking.
I picked Lopes last time so I’ll pick Ortega this time. Considering how hard this one is to call, I have no shame in that. (Prediction: Brian Ortega)
Ryan Jarrell: This fight is very interesting on so many levels. When these two were initially matched up, I picked Ortega to get the win. Lopes is someone who is still evolving and has not reached his prime yet. I don’t think we can say the same thing about Ortega. “T-City” had a memorable win over Yair Rodríguez in his last UFC fight and it would be no surprise to see him notch another as an underdog. Having said that, I have to go with the younger fighter here. This would be the biggest win of Lopes’ career thus far, and I think he gets it. (Prediction: Diego Lopes)
Thomas Albano: This is a huge opportunity for Ortega – and an even bigger opportunity for Lopes. Over a year-and-a-half after suffering a shoulder injury against Rodríguez, Ortega returned in a big way by submitting him in spectacular fashion in February. Spectacular is also the word to describe Lopes’ time in the Octagon thus far. Just four fights into the UFC, he’s had a narrow loss to Movsar Evloev and highlight finishes of Gavin Tucker, Pat Sabatini, and Sodiq Yusuff.
This should be one of the best fights on the card. It’s a big step up to be taking on a two-time title challenger, but it’s the biggest opportunity of Lopes’ life – and he needs to make the most of it. And the thing is, he has the capability to get it done. “T-City” might be tough to finish with a solid chin, but Lopes possesses some explosive speed and power with his striking. Even on the ground, the up-and-comer could be able to duel in grappling with Ortega with his jiu-jitsu experience. Lopes, in fact, has more wins via submission in his MMA career than he holds KO/TKOs. If he continues his run with the kind of circumstances he’s facing here, one can only imagine the kind of major doors that will open for him. (Prediction: Diego Lopes)
Andrew Starc: This is a huge step up in competition for Lopes. Ortega is coming off a submission win against Rodríguez in February, while the Brazilian has racked up three first-round finishes in the past year. Lopes is the bigger man with huge KO power, and both fighters have good grappling. However, I think if “T-City” survives a first-round onslaught from Lopes, his experience will see him get the win. (Prediction: Brian Ortega)
Pranav Pandey: This is easily my favorite matchup on the card, as I believe it has all the ingredients to be the show-stealer of the night. Lopes is on an absolute tear right now, boasting impeccable credentials with knockout potential and a formidable grappling game to match. He poses a serious threat to Ortega, potentially being one of his toughest challenges to date. However, “T-City” is as tough as they come, showcasing sharp boxing skills with impressive volume striking. But what truly sets him apart is his ability to completely shift the momentum when the fight hits the mat. My only concern is whether his durability might be starting to wane.
Both fighters have a warrior’s mentality and won’t back down until the final bell. While Lopes has the edge with his youth and sharpness, Ortega’s resilience is a key factor that can’t be overlooked. He has the ability to turn the tide in the later rounds but must remain cautious of getting caught by the Brazilian’s strikes. Otherwise, “T-City” has the experience and savvy to steal the fight when it matters most. (Prediction: Brian Ortega)
Aakrit Sharma: It’s outrageous to me that Ortega is the underdog against Lopes. The Brazilian prospect has shown resilience and well-roundedness in his UFC fights so far, but Ortega has shared the Octagon for 25 minutes with the likes of Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway. Because the fight is three rounds, I’m not expecting either fighter to get finished. Instead, it could be a back-and-forth brawl on the feet with some exceptionally slick scrambles in between. My prediction is for Ortega to win by decision, and his experience fighting way superior competition will be a key factor in the bout. (Prediction: Brian Ortega)
Consensus: 4-2 Brian Ortega
UFC Women’s Flyweight Title: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko
Kyle Dimond: There’s a lot of factors that point to this being Grasso’s time to close out this trilogy, but there are a few issues with that — one being that Valentina Shevchenko is a bit good, and two, I can see there being a fourth fight if “Bullet” reclaims the belt. The former champ just refuses to let the division move on, but I do think that Grasso has enough to win another close fight. The first time, she capitalized on a mistake. The second time, she looked as good as we’ve seen her. I think that trajectory is going to keep climbing here. (Prediction: Alexa Grasso)
Ryan Jarrell: I cannot wait to see what unfolds in this trilogy fight. The former champion is now 36 years old and I think it’s fair to say not in her prime anymore. But I think Shevchenko is still good enough to pick up this win and reclaim the title. Grasso is definitely a tough out and matches up well with the veteran. I would not be surprised if she defends her title and closes this chapter in her career. It’s just hard for me to pick against Shevchenko. I won’t be placing a huge bet on this fight, but give me “Bullet” to win a decision here. (Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko)
Thomas Albano: It’s always great to see a trilogy fight, and considering the circumstances of their first two fights, this will really be enjoyable. We’ve never had a women’s trilogy fight in UFC history until tonight, and so while O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili is the main event, this fight (containing a Mexican-born UFC champion) should have a lot of focus.
If there is something that the first two fights between Grasso and Shevchenko have shown, it’s that Grasso is not afraid and can take it to the longtime former champion. Whether it’s grappling or the clinch, Grasso seems to have an edge. Of course, Shevchenko is known for her crisp, technical, sometimes powerful striking and being able to land from range. Shevchenko is also one of the more unpredictable and creative strikers in the cage with her fighting style, so she can never be counted out of the fight. Shevchenko performed well in both previous outings, but neither fight went her way given that she got caught in the first fight (to Grasso’s credit) and the debatable judges’ cards in the second fight (again, to Grasso’s credit on her own performance).
Though Grasso has gotten the better of Shevchenko twice already, Shevchenko is a smart, dedicated fighter who has definitely learned from the first two outings. Not everyone is ready to consider her no longer the top dog at 125 pounds, and she may very well bring a new plan into this third fight after taking in both of their 2023 outings. My feeling is that “Bullet” reclaims her throne in another competitive outing that may prove to be one of, if not the, best women’s UFC fights in 2024. (Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko)
Andrew Starc: The Shevchenko who a few years ago seemed unassailable is perhaps no longer. 36 years old now, she’s facing an opponent in Grasso who, while maybe not as technically gifted, is certainly in her prime. You could argue Shevchenko was the more dominant in their two previous meetings, and Grasso only clinched victory the first time due to Shevchenko’s slip up. This one could go either way, but it just seems like Grasso is going to pull off the win. (Prediction: Alexa Grasso)
Pranav Pandey: Grasso and Shevchenko now stand on equal footing, with each fighter well-versed in the intricacies of the other’s skills and fighting style thanks to their previous encounters. On paper, “Bullet” seems to outclass the reigning champion in nearly every aspect — whether it’s her unconventional striking, defensive grappling, or overall skillset. However, what sets Grasso apart is her freshness, giving her a physical sharpness advantage over the more battle-worn Shevchenko. Moreover, Grasso carries a surge of confidence from her previous success against Shevchenko, which could be a decisive factor in their next showdown.
Shevchenko brings a menacing arsenal of striking threats, where one misstep from her opponent could lead to an early night. However, in her recent outings, she’s revealed glaring vulnerabilities against skilled grapplers, a weakness Grasso can exploit. If the Mexican plays her cards right and capitalizes on these openings, she has a strong path to victory. (Prediction: Alexa Grasso)
Aakrit Sharma: In their last outing, Shevchenko showed glimpses of a dominant force against Grasso throughout five rounds. She was getting the better of the striking exchanges and could secure four takedowns with over eight minutes of control time. However, the UFC women’s flyweight champion had a couple of huge moments like the second-round knockdown and the ground control in the last frame that made the fight a lot closer than it threatened to be at times.
Although Grasso is unbeaten in two fights against Shevchenko and “Bullet” no longer looks
invincible in the Octagon, it’s hard to bet against her. The former champ will still have a
massive power advantage and, with the right adjustments, she should be able to get a
decision win over Grasso at UFC 306. Grasso’s very tough and has good jiu-jitsu, so I wouldn’t predict a submission or finish win for Shevchenko. (Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko)
Consensus: 3-3
UFC Bantamweight Title: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili
Kyle Dimond: This fight is going to be fascinating because of two big questions. We’ve seen Dvalishvili get hurt in the past and survive, but will he be able to do that against a sniper like O’Malley? And how will “Suga” fare against a pressure fighter like “Merab”The Machine.” This has become a real coin flip pick for me in the weeks leading up to this fight but I am going to side with and new.
I don’t see the challenger as someone who is going to lose confidence in this fight if he can’t close that gap or if he gets hurt when doing so. I think O’Malley will more than hold his own but I can also see him being stifled at points in this fight, which will give Dvalishvili the rounds he needs to take home the bantamweight title. (Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili)
Ryan Jarrell: There was a time when I was absolutely convinced that Dvalishvili would eventually be the bantamweight champion and the man to dethrone O’Malley. But I have been slowly losing my confidence in picking the Georgian to get the job done. The main reason is because of how many openings he leaves when closing distance. “Suga” is a sniper and so precise with his punching placement. I just believe that over 25 minutes, there will be a moment when Dvalishvili gets caught and O’Malley capitalizes for the TKO finish. (Prediction: Sean O’Malley)
Thomas Albano: O’Malley’s rise to the UFC bantamweight championship has been nothing short of spectacular and star-making. Having said that, he’s taking on a man who probably would have received a title shot a lot sooner if he was willing to fight his friend and teammate in former champion Aljamain Sterling. O’Malley seems to continue to get better with every fight, but Dvalishvili presents a unique challenge that he hasn’t faced before – and perhaps the toughest that he’s ever faced.
Though it sounds generic to say, this one truly is a striker vs. grappler matchup, and whoever dictates control of the fight determines how this one is going to go. If Dvalishvili is as dominant with his takedowns and his wrestling as we’ve seen him be in the Octagon, it’s going to be a long night for “The Suga Show” and his fanbase. But if O’Malley has really worked on his takedown defense and his wrestling, then he can keep this fight standing, where it will be a great night for him.
Unfortunately for O’Malley and his fans (or for me in case I get this wrong!), I feel like unless I see Dvalishvili be stopped in his relentless takedown pursuits, I’m not going to doubt him. And considering this may be Dvalishvili’s only opportunity at the 135-pound gold after just serving as Sterling’s “bodyguard” of sorts when he was champion, I don’t think Dvalishvili is going to just let this opportunity slip through his fingers. (Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili)
Andrew Starc: Dvalishvili’s relentless wrestling and cardio seem the antidote to O’Malley’s phenomenal striking, but how will the Georgian perform under the pressure of his first title fight? Also factoring into his chances is the fact that Dvalishvili revealed to the world a cut that’s prime for targeted shots from O’Malley, and that he could possibly have a staph infection. O’Malley seems the sort of fighter that steps up a notch in big title fights, and I think he’s going to use his striking to get the win here. (Prediction: Sean O’Malley)
Pranav Pandey: In my view, Dvalishvili poses a formidable threat to Sean O’Malley, primarily due to his relentless pace and suffocating wrestling style, which has consistently left his opponents gasping for air. Yet, “Suga” isn’t one to back down easily. With his exceptional takedown defense and uncanny ability to capitalize on his reach, he’s more than capable of turning a potential wrestling clinic into a striking showcase.What truly sets O’Malley apart, though, is his sharp counter-striking, which could serve as a perfect antidote to Dvalishvili’s forward pressure. His precision and timing allow him to exploit even the slightest openings, forcing opponents to rethink their approach.
I anticipate the early rounds will see both fighters engage in a tactical chess match, cautiously gauging each other’s rhythm and distance, with neither willing to overcommit too early. While “The Machine” has proven time and again that he can push the pace, O’Malley presents a different challenge. His precision striking could sap Dvalishvili’s energy reserves faster than expected. Dvalishvili’s susceptibility to being hit, particularly around the temple, perfectly aligns with O’Malley’s prowess as a devastating headhunter with fight-ending power. While Dvalishvili has the endurance to push the fight into deep waters, evading “Suga’s” pinpoint strikes will be an immense task , though the Georgian has the resilience to pull it off. (Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili)
Aakrit Sharma: Din Thomas rightly predicts that this fight won’t be a back-and-forth. Either Dvalishvili’s wrestling will overwhelm O’Malley for five straight rounds or the champ’s takedown defense and clean striking won’t allow the Georgian to be as relentless as he usually is. O’Malley has really underrated grappling. Petr Yan could take him down at will but “Suga” didn’t take much damage on the ground and hopped back up in several creative ways. He’s improved drastically since that fight, and his ability to hit you as soon as you enter the pocket should be a problem for Dvalishvili. O’Malley’s knees should also serve him well against a grappler like Dvalishvili.
If the fight goes the distance, “The Machine” will most likely get the nod, but my prediction is O’Malley winning via KO before the fourth begins. (Prediction: Sean O’Malley)
Consensus: 3-3
That’ll do it for our Noche UFC 306 staff picks! What do you think? Do your picks look similar? Let us know in the comments section! Also, you can check out the full Noche UFC 306 card below.
Main Card:
- Bantamweight Championship Main Event: Sean O’Malley (C) vs. Merab Dvalishvili
- Flyweight Championship Co-Main Event: Alexa Grasso (C) vs. Valentina Shevchenko
- Featherweight: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes
- Lightweight: Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics
- Flyweight: Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Ode’ Osbourne
Preliminary Card:
- Bantamweight: Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Aoriqileng
- Bantamweight: Irena Aldana vs. Norma Dumont
- Lightweight: Manuel Torres vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
- Flyweight: Edgar Cháirez vs. Kevin Borjas
- Strawweight: Yazmin Jauregui vs. Ketlen Souza
Be sure to keep it right here on MMANews.com tomorrow for all the results, highlights, and updates on Noche UFC 306!
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Noche UFC 306: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili Staff Predictions