UFC 306 Predictions, Preview, And Analysis

Up until very recently, The Sphere was known as a spectacularly shitty movie based on a not-so-shitty book. These days, it refers to the Las Vegas super venue (some might say eyesore) that is revolutionizing the way entertainment is consumed in “Sin City.”

Or maybe it’s a costly tech fad that will close down and get demolished in a couple of years.

Either way, UFC CEO Dana White — no stranger to gambling — is placing a $20 million bet on the success of UFC 306, the championship doubleheader on pay-per-view (PPV) this Sat. night (Sept. 14, 2024) with Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili leading the charge.

“Suga” will be putting his bantamweight strap up for grabs.

This weekend’s fight card will also feature the flyweight championship trilogy between current titleholder Alexa Grasso and former champion Valentina Shevchenko, fresh off their duties on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 32. Elsewhere on the card, Brian Ortega completes what could be his last fight at 145 pounds against featherweight phenom Diego Lopes.

Get a complete breakdown of all the UFC 306 odds and betting lines HERE.

135 lbs.: UFC Bantamweight Champion “Suga” Sean O’Malley (18-1, 1 NC) vs. Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili (17-4)

Sean O’Malley captured the bantamweight crown from Aljamain Sterling at UFC 292 last summer in Boston, then legitimized his reign as 135-pound titleholder by defending the strap against Marlon Vera at UFC 299 back in March. Detractors are quickly running out of reasons to discredit O’Malley as a world-class fighter which is why most of the criticism centers on his flamboyant appearance, his love for ganja, or his extramarital exploits. Inside the cage he’s a deadly sniper, currently holding the division record for striking differential at 4.24. For those unfamiliar with striking differential, it measures significant strikes landed per minute against significant strikes absorbed per minute. Armed with a switch stance, “Suga” also holds the bantamweight record for most post-fight performance bonuses at nine, which includes three “Fight of the Night” honors. His takedown defense is good, but not great, and how well he keeps the challenger at bay will determine his success on fight night.

And perhaps his success in replacing Conor McGregor as the top guy in UFC.

“This is what I wanted, something like this,” O’Malley told reporters at the UFC 306 media day (watch the replay here). “Obviously, we didn’t even know The Sphere was a thing at those times, but I wanted 1-of-1 kind of moments. This was it. Conor’s still got one more big fight in him because it’s a big question mark. I think Conor has one more huge fight. If he goes out there and loses his next fight, it’ll be like six in a row or something. It’s got to die down eventually. Maybe not. That just tests how big of a star he is. But I’d assume he goes out there. If he loses, I’m there. I’m the guy. I’m the No. 1.”

Merab Dvalishvili is a longtime friend and training partner of Sterling and presents a similar style inside the Octagon. His 10-fight win streak includes three former champions in Henry Cejudo, Petr Yan, and Jose Aldo, though you could argue “The Machine” was able to get Cejudo, 38, and Aldo, 37, when they were well past their competitive prime. Similarly, Yan has dropped four of his last six in what is one of the biggest collapses in bantamweight history. As a wrestler, Dvalishvili is more volume than skill, because he ranks No. 1 all-time with takedowns landed at 66 — but does not even crack the Top 10 in takedown accuracy. That’s like a baseball player who leads the league in both homeruns and strikeouts. It’s also worth pointing out that Dvalishvili has just one finish during his 10-fight win streak and that came over Marlon Moraes during “Magic’s” seven-fight losing skid. On paper, “The Machine” is a force to be reckoned with but when you start to deconstruct his individual performances … not that impressive.

Does it matter? Probably not, because the end result is what counts and Dvalishvili knows how to get there.

“Stylistically, it’s easy for me because my cardio, my grappling, my style should work against him,” Dvalishvili told reporters at the UFC 306 media day (watch the replay here). “But at the same time, we see what he can do. He can throw something big. It’s a challenge. I can dominate, but he can throw one punch and he can change everything. Every fight is like this. I don’t look at any fights in the UFC as easy. There is no easy fights here. Not always the best fighter wins. We’ve seen it so many times.”

The challenger has the conditioning to spam takedowns for all five rounds and I’m not sure O’Malley — taken down six times by Petr Yan at UFC 280 — has the defense to stop him. I just don’t feel comfortable picking the champion on the slim chance he can land the kill shot before getting double-legged into oblivion.

Prediction: Dvalishvili def. O’Malley by unanimous decision

125 lbs.: UFC Flyweight Champion Alexa Grasso (16-3-1) vs. Valentina “Bullet” Shevchenko (23-4-1)

Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko have not fought since their Noche UFC headliner last Sept. in Las Vegas, a rematch of their UFC 285 showdown that Grasso won by submission. That’s because they were too busy filming TUF 32, which nobody watched, while the rest of the flyweight division was spinning its wheels. Not that I think the average UFC fan can even name the Top 5 at 125 pounds, but it’s still important to keep the line moving. Grasso has looked unstoppable since getting outwrestled by Carla Esparza back in late 2019, to the tune of five straight wins (pre-draw) and I sometimes wonder if this is the same fighter who lost to Felice Herrig at UFC Fight Night 104. Now 31, Grasso is the -135 favorite on the moneyline, which is likely due to Shevchenko’s performances over the last two years.

“I had an injury in the (second) fight, I needed surgery,” Grasso told reporters at the UFC 306 media day (watch the replay here). “It took me like a few months. My hands are my strongest weapon, you know. I love to box and it was really hard, honestly. But right now, it’s fully healed and I’m ready for that. I’m happy my body heals really well. Like I said before, we’re both professional. We’re here to do our job, we love to compete, and we just found that fighting each other is really, really tough and amazing.”

Coming out of her snuff film starring Lauren Murphy, Shevchenko appeared to be invincible. Then Taila Santos took her to a split decision in a five-round scare at UFC 275, followed by the consecutive performances against Grasso. “Bullet” was the second-best bantamweight in the world before dropping to flyweight, with a submission win over former champion Julianna Pena, so it’s hard to know what led to her recent woes. Perhaps it’s her age (36) or the wear-and-tear on her body. Remember, Shevchenko spent more than a decade competing in both Muay Thai and kickboxing before migrating to mixed martial arts (MMA), so there are a lot of miles on those proverbial tires. She needs a dominant performance this weekend in “Sin City” to reestablish herself as the top dog at 125 pounds.

“The concern is to finish the fight,” Shevchenko told reporters at the UFC 306 media day (watch the replay here). “This is No. 1 what’s in my head. It’s like when to seize opportunity, just do what you have to do, 100 percent, finish the fight. Our second fight, everyone could see that I won the fight but they give a draw. A draw in this circumstances I’d say by itself. What should I do, what should I change? I don’t know. I really had to focus on to perform and prepare myself the best way what I can. I can say I had an amazing training camp. I push myself to all that’s impossible limits, and yeah, just ready for the action and it’s going to be amazing event and amazing fight.”

Shevchenko is a world-class striker with good wrestling and solid submissions, but none of those attributes were able to carry her to victory against Grasso the first and second time out and I’m not sure they’ll come into play here, either. It’s possible that Grasso just has “Bullet’s” number (think Holloway-Volkanovski) but I also expect another close fight that may lead to a fourth encounter somewhere down the line, much like it did for Brandon Moreno and Deiveson Figueiredo.

Prediction: Grasso def. Shevchenko by unanimous decision

145 lbs.: Brian “T-City” Ortega (16-3, 1 NC) vs. Diego Lopes (25-6)

Brian Ortega is already talking about a jump to lightweight, which makes me wonder how much he invested in this fight, psychologically speaking. Competing as a two-time title challenger, “T-City” carries significant name recognition and usually finds himself at or near the top of every UFC fight card. How much stock you put into Ortega as a featherweight contender may depend on how much you value his recent performance against Yair Rodriguez, which could be looked at as an amazing comeback victory for “T-City” — or an embarrassing collapse for “El Pantera.” Getting lit up then finding a way to battle back and win has been a troubling trend throughout Ortega’s career and it may continue at UFC 306 against a younger but more experienced featherweight in Diego Lopes.

“The new version of myself is someone who is actually taking his job seriously,” Ortega told reporters at the UFC 306 media day (watch the replay here). “After the Max loss, that was the first time we decided to take it serious. Then, I won (against) ‘Zombie’ and I kind of decided just to be stupid again. It’s something that’s hard to shake out there, my lifestyle. After that, after failing recently and hitting rock bottom, that’s when I decided to say, ‘You know what, bro? Stop self-sabotaging yourself because you’re afraid of what you can become.’ I was more happy to be part of the party. I wasn’t supposed to be here. That was always my mentality.”

Lopes has been a nice surprise to the stagnant 145-pound weight class. Previously known as UFC flyweight champion Alexa Grasso’s jiu jitsu coach, the Brazilian has been able to establish himself as a legitimate threat to the major players in the division Top 10 after racking up four straight wins with three first-round finishes over the last 10 months. His lone defeat in UFC came against No. 6-ranked Movsar Evloev, a bout Lopes accepted on just five days’ notice. In addition, the former “Contender Series” competitor is now sporting double-digit knockout wins, for those detractors who think Lopes is “just a BJJ guy.”

But he is still Grasso’s coach.

“I know Brian is a great fighter. I’m ready for whatever comes up, but the idea is to run back to the locker room, get changed and go back to corner Alexa,” Lopes told reporters at the UFC 306 media day (watch the replay here). “I am ready for a war. I’m ready to go full out, and we do debate this as a team and make decisions according to whatever happens, but yeah we spoke about it. We have a strategy for it. I’m going to fight the No. 3 ranked guy in the division, so it’s just great to hear [compliments from the champion] and that really sets me up in a better position to come up strong.”

Ortega has just one knockout win over the last eight years and that came against the mummified remains of Frankie Edgar. “T-City” has typically relied on his jiu jitsu to bail him out of trouble, a failsafe that won’t be operational against a ground wizard like Lopes. I don’t want to get too carried away and start talking about Lopes like he’s Max Holloway or Alex Volkanovski, I just think he’s on his way up and Ortega is on his way down. We’ll find out for certain this Sat. night in “Sin City.”

Prediction: Lopes def. Ortega by technical knockout

155 lbs.: Esteban “El Gringo” Ribovics (13-1) vs. Daniel “Golden Boy” Zellhuber (15-1)

This is one of those great battles between once-beaten lightweight prospects that almost feels premature, kind of like the time matchmakers booked Arman Tsarukyan against Mateusz Gamrot at UFC Vegas 57. Esteban Ribovics blasted his way to a UFC contract with his “Contender Series” creaming of Thomas Paull back in Aug. 2022, but stumbled out of the gate with a UFC debut loss to “Tajik Tank” Loik Radzhabov. Undaunted, “El Gringo” roared back with consecutive wins over Kamuela Kirk and Terrance McKinney, the latter of which ended by way of brutal, first-round knockout.

Not surprisingly, fans are hyped for this important 155-pound showdown.

“I think there’s hype because he’s a great fighter,” Ribovics told reporters at the UFC 306 media day (watch the replay here). “I respect him a lot. As I said previously, I wish we had the opportunity to fight him further along in my career. Maybe we could have a chance to develop and grow together. But yeah, this is a great fight now. I’m ready for this fight. I think it’s going to be an insane fight and no one wants to miss it. Yeah, I have nothing but respect for him. He’s a great fighter, a great contender, coming up from Mexico. I wish we were going to fight further up, but the opportunity came up now. I’m happy to accept it. I’m happy for this fight.”

Daniel Zellhuber proved himself worthy by knocking around Lucas Almeida on the 2021 edition of “Contender Series” and like Ribovics, got stymied in his Octagon debut after dropping a decision to Trey Ogden. What followed was three straight wins, including his submission finish over Christos Giagos at last year’s Noche UFC card in Las Vegas. The well-balanced “Golden Boy” has more knockouts than submissions — not unlike Ribovics — but has the chops to hang wherever the fight goes. In addition, cardio has not proven to be any kind of issue in his decision wins, should his “El Gringo” contest find its way into the final frame — certainly an option for a slow starter like Zellhuber.

“I feel that the most important thing I’ve been finding is self-confidence,” Zellhuber told reporters at the UFC 306 media day (watch the replay here). “When you get to the UFC and your first fight is a defeat, as is my case, that breaks you mentally a little bit. After I lost that fight, I was struggling with the thoughts about belonging here in the UFC. Now, after a three-fight winning streak, the way I’ve been winning, the way I’ve been evolving in the gym with my training partners, I feel that I’m more dangerous than ever.”

It’s tempting to favor Ribovics based on his aggression, but Zellhuber has a staggering eight-inch reach advantage to complement his three-inch advantage in height. I don’t expect much wrestling in this contest though it remains a factor, it just depends on how long it takes “Golden Boy” — a -230 betting favorite — to find his range and pepper his way to a decision.

Prediction: Zellhuber def. Ribovics by decision

125 lbs.: Ode “Jamaican Sensation” Osbourne (12-7, 1 NC) vs. Ronaldo “Lazy Boy” Rodríguez (16-2)

Ode Osbourne looked to be a promising flyweight prospect when he submitted Armando Villarreal on Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in summer 2019. In addition to his 7-2 (1 NC) record at the time, the “Jamaican Sensation” was also huge for the division, standing 5’7” with a 73-inch reach. Despite showing early promise, Osbourne has performed below expectations over the last couple of years and his UFC record now stands at 4-5 after dropping three of his last four, including consecutive submission losses to Asu Almabaev and Jafel Filho. For tomorrow night’s contest, the 32 year-old flyweight will enter the Octagon as the +130 betting underdog.

“It almost feels like a high school experience where you get invited to the cool party and you’re kind of the nerd and people are like, ‘What’s he doing here?,’” Osbourne told reporters at the UFC 306 media day (watch the replay here). “Everybody has been asking me that, ‘What are the emotions?’ There really isn’t none, honestly. This is my 10th fight in the Octagon. I’ve fought on some great cards. UFC has blessed me with some great opportunities. So I’m pretty used to this personally. In that way there’s no emotions there. I got nothing but love and respect for ‘Lazy Boy’ to be honest. He’s a cool dude.”

Ronaldo Rodriguez was hoping to start his UFC career back in summer 2020 but faltered in his “Contender Series” tryout, losing to Jerome Rivera by way of decision. It took “Lazy Boy” four years and five straight wins on the regional circuit to finally earn a spot on the UFC roster. Rodriguez made the most of it, submitting Denys Bondar as part of the UFC Mexico City lineup back in February. The 25 year-old Mexican is a strong wrestler with aggressive counterattacks and 12 finishes in 15 wins. More importantly, he’s got the momentum that Osbourne is currently lacking.

“I hope he doesn’t think that we’re friends,” Rodriguez told reporters at the UFC 306 media day (watch the replay here). “In the cage I’m going to try to rip his head off. It’s business. I guarantee I’ll put on a show. You know why? Because I have nothing to lose, and everything to gain. I come from nothing. I have everything to gain and that’s why I’m so dangerous. I have nothing to lose. Whoever they put in front of me must be prepared to die.”

Osbourne is now 32 and has looked wholly unimpressive in his last few trips to the Octagon. He certainly has the physical tools to defeat a reckless bulldozer like Rodriguez but is struggling to put it all together. I don’t expect that to change this weekend at The Sphere.

Prediction: Rodriguez def. Osbourne by technical knockout

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