Who Will Win? Canelo Vs. Berlanga Fight Prediction!

Do you think Edgar Berlanga is going to beat Saul “Canelo” Alvarez tomorrow night (Sat., Sept. 24, 2024, in Las Vegas, Nevada?

If you want to put your money where your mouth is, you could make some very decent bank on it. Depending on which online (or potentially local) sportsbook you fancy, your $10 can net you a win somewhere in between $90 and $105.

That’s a hefty prize purse, but it’s very hard to imagine a situation where that happens. It’s not outside the realm of possibility — Canelo has been in professional boxing for 19 years now, while Berlanga — seven years younger than his adversary — has the height and reach advantage.

But, let’s talk about what Alvarez has going for him.

His chin has never been cracked. He works effectively to the body and the head, and is a master of getting in and out when he wants and how he wants. He understands range better than just about anyone else in this sport, which is even rarer for someone who’s a bit short (5’9”-ish) for his weight class. These attributes make him so sharp both defensively and offensively that he consistently outboxes taller fights on the outside.

Now, Berlanga isn’t some bum. He’s 27, coming off of the biggest win of his career, and his star is on the rise. He does have the ability to finish opponents. This is boxing and anything can happen, but Berlanga is going to have to make an insanely massive leap up from what we’ve seen or Father Time has had to immediately grab a hold of Canelo and turn his skills into mush.

Canelo has had four or five hard fights in his boxing life: Erislandy Lara, Gennady Golovkin, Floyd Mayweather and Dmitry Bivol. I’m not trying to be a jerk to Berlanga, but nothing we’ve seen of him in his eight-year career has led anyone to think that he’s in that class. This match really boils down to one thing — have Canelo’s skills and attributes eroded to the point where Berlanga can close the gap?

Canelo has certainly looked past his apex — it’s just that his apex is so high that he hasn’t descended to the plane of most mortal men yet. He’s not the fighter who beat the likes of Sergey Kovalev, Amir Khan, Miguel Cotto and others years ago, but it’s unlikely that he has to be in order to rack up the dub this Saturday.

Prediction: Alvarez by decision (although I wouldn’t be shocked to see a late technical knockout)

Photo by Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images

In the co-main event, we’ve got two older, crafty veterans in Erislandy Lara and Danny Garcia. Honestly, I’m prepared for this to be a dull affair, as both men are often perfectly content being counter-punchers and waiting for the other to go. I could easily be wrong, in that Lara is also decent in leading the dance, and both men have sneaky knockout power when given the opportunity, so maybe we do get fireworks, but I feel more comfortable saying “no”, more than “yes”.

Garcia hasn’t boxed in two years, and at 36, that’s a very rough sentence to read if you’re a fan of “Swift.” It’s very rare for good things to come of that. Lara, however, is 41, and there’ve been a lot of questions about his strength of schedule lately. It’s easy to win when you’re decent and facing regional champs from Australia and Ireland. Suffice it to say that Garcia is easily going to be Lara’s biggest test since at least before the pandemic.

Prediction: Lara via decision

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