UFC Tampa Predictions, Preview, And Analysis

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A potential Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Strawweight title shot is on the line in Tampa, Florida this Saturday (Oct. 12, 2019) when former champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk throws down with the surging “Karate Hottie,” Michelle Waterson.

Kron Gracie continues his quest to be Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu’s next great mixed martial arts (MMA) ambassador in his co-feature opposite veteran Cub Swanson, while Lightweight prospects Thomas Gifford and Mike Davis duke it out one fight prior

115 lbs.: Joanna Jedrzejczyk (15-3) vs. Michelle “The Karate Hottie” Waterson (17-6)

Curse Joanna Jedrzejczyk for bringing weigh-in drama into what was a fairly straightforward pick. Now I have to add disclaimers like “if she isn’t too drained” instead of just saying she’s going to dominate.

Jedrzedczyk just outclasses Waterson in the long-range striking “The Karate Hottie” prefers thanks to her jab and considerable edges in height and reach. To make matters worse for the former Invicta champ, Waterson’s killer jiu-jitsu is a non-factor due to her inability to get through Jedrzejczyk’s ironclad takedown defense. Waterson’s only chances of victory are if Jedrzejczyk’s gas tank fails her or if Waterson somehow manages to slam a shin into the Pole’s shaky chin.

Neither of those are worth putting faith in. Jedrzejczyk’s had rough weight cuts before without slowing down and, save for the first fight with Rose Namajunas, has consistently been able to bounce back from knockdowns. If both women fight near the best of their capabilities, Jedrzejczyk channels her championship reign in a dominant performance.

Prediction: Jedrzejczyk via unanimous decision

145 lbs.: Cub Swanson (25-11) vs. Kron Gracie (5-0)

If Cub Swanson fights to the best of his abilities, this is extremely winnable. Gracie looked a bit more mobile than in the past when he debuted against Alex Caceres, but he’s still a bit of a plodder, and Swanson showed against Ortega that he can still punish straightforward approaches. Thing is, Swanson hasn’t turned in what I’d call a “great” performance since the Doo Ho Choi fight almost three years ago and his BJJ black belt hasn’t stopped him from suffering submission loss after submission loss.

Like Ortega, Gracie only really needs to tie up once, and he’s legitimately good enough to submit Swanson off of his back. After four consecutive losses, two of them tapouts, I can’t see Swanson staying out of Gracie’s grip for 15 minutes.

Swanson is a terrific fighter who’s dealt with one of the most punishing schedules of anyone in recent memory; just because he can’t take out the elites anymore doesn’t necessarily mean he’s washed. All that said, he’ll need to turn back the clock in a big way to derail Gracie. Clinch, takedown/guard pull, submission.

Prediction: Gracie via first-round submission

155 lbs.: Thomas “The Young Lion” Gifford (17-8) vs. Mike “Beast Boy” Davis (7-2)

Davis deserves a lot more respect than he’s likely to get from those who just take a cursory glance. He fought a genuine beast in Sodiq Yusuff on the Contender Series, stepped up in weight to fight another monster in Gilbert Burns on short notice, and now takes another last-minute fight above his natural weight class.

Luckily, this one figures to go a bit better for him.

I’ve compared Gifford to Brian Ortega before, and though “The Young Lion” is nowhere near that level, he’s similar in the sense that his lack of offensive wrestling means he has to force opponents into mistakes to bring it to the ground. Davis is a far more skilled and, more importantly, composed striker who seems unlikely to rush into an ill-advised takedown attempt when he can just take Gifford apart on the feet.

Gifford’s got size here, but his inability to leverage it into the takedown-heavy offense he’d need to defeat Davis is damning. “Beast Boy” finally gets on the board with a dominant striking victory.

Prediction: Davis via unanimous decision

115 lbs.: Mackenzie Dern (7-0) vs. Amanda Ribas (7-1)

Imagine being Mackenzie Dern. Imagine being on the shortlist of the greatest female grapplers on the planet and boasting natural knockout power in your right hand and not even caring enough to make weight on a consistent basis. It’s mind-boggling to me, as is the fact that the UFC is letting her compete at Strawweight again.

But who knows? Maybe becoming a mother was the spark she needed, and she’ll actually make proper use of her world-class skills and gifts. And if you’re not sold on that, take solace in the fact that she only needs to make semi-proper use to defeat Ribas.

Dern badly outclasses Ribas in the latter’s area of expertise, and though the Brazilian showed massive improvement in her Octagon debut after a lengthy layoff, she doesn’t really have a clear avenue of victory. Dern’s better than her on the mat and Ribas’ technical striking edge is offset by Dern’s natural punching power.

Then again, this is Dern we’re talking about, and it’s hard to forget her mediocre performance against another piece of ostensible cannon fodder in Ashley Yoder. I’ll split the difference and say Dern underperforms but still manages to eke out a win.

Prediction: Dern via split decision

155 lbs.: Matt Frevola (7-1-1) vs. Luis Pena (7-1)

I really dig this matchmaking. Ridiculously tall prospects need to prove that they can handle opponents who will relentlessly stay in their faces; Jalin Turner failed the test against Frevola this past April and now it’s Pena’s turn.

Pena will have six inches of height and four inches of reach on Frevola. So long as it stays on the feet, “The Steamrolla” is going to get picked apart. On the flip side, Steven Peterson had some mild success executing a rough version of Frevola’s ideal gameplan against Pena. Both men have clear blueprints to follow and areas of expertise that slot nicely into the other man’s weakpoints.

I think I’m on Team Pena here. While he’s been taken down several times in the past, only Mike Trizano was able to parlay that into an actual win against him, and “Violent Bob Ross” generally does a good job of getting back to his feet. Plus, Frevola’s not a hard man to hit and has been hurt more often than someone with his gung-ho approach should be. Pena has the higher ceiling and looks to be climbing nicely, so expect a fun back-and-forth until Pena clips him and chokes him out.

Prediction: Pena via second-round submission

185 lbs.: Eryk Anders (12-4) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (30-11)

Honestly, writing about dudes and ladies beating the snot out of each other is a pretty nice gig, but the downside is that I periodically have to try to predict how Gerald Meerschaert. The guy’s skills and fight IQ oscillate wildly between fights to the point where I’m convinced he’s being remotely piloted by someone whose mom forces them to share the controller with their little brother. Sometimes he’s an insanely durable comeback machine who doesn’t let slapdash wrestling stop him from bringing his grappling to bear and sometimes he’s just randomly flailing about while Jack Hermansson runs roughshod over him.

At least Anders has the courtesy of being consistent, even if it’s consistently below expectations.

I initially backed Meerschaert on the strength of his recent win over Trevin Giles, but that victory came in large part thanks to Giles willingly obliging Meerschaert on the ground despite constantly getting punished for doing so. Anders ostensibly has enough sense to keep it on the feet and, critically, has the cardio to not burn himself out bouncing sledgehammers off of Meerschaert’s concrete skull.

Anything can happen when “GM3” enters the cage, but Anders should be able to keep it in his comfort zone and outbox him for a decision.

Prediction: Anders via unanimous decision

MMAmania.com will offer LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Fight Night 161 event this Saturday (click here), starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” at 5 p.m. ET and continuing on with the 8 p.m. ET main card.

To see more on UFC Fight Night 161: “Jedrzejczyk vs. Waterson” and the rest of the MMA offerings on ESPN+, head on over to our comprehensive event archive right here.