UFC 246 breakdown: Who takes Conor McGregor vs. Donald Cerrone showdown?

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 246.

UFC 246 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on UFC Fight Pass/ESPN+.

Conor McGregor (21-4 MMA, 9-2 UFC)

Staple info:

• Height: 5’9″ Age: 31 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 74″
• Last fight: Submission loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov (Oct. 6, 2018)
• Camp: SBG Ireland (Dublin, Ireland)
• Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:

+ Former UFC lightweight and featherweight champion
+ Cage Warriors lightweight and featherweight titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ 18 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 13 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Athletic and agile mover
+ Excellent footwork
^ Manages distance well
+ Accurate left cross
^ Adjusts attack angles nicely
+ Diverse kicking arsenal
+ Improved wrestling/takedown defense
^ Solid base and balance
+ Underrated grappling acumen
+/- 1 MMA fight in the last 38 months

Donald Cerrone (36-13 MMA, 23-10 UFC)

Staple info:

• Height: 6’1″ Age: 36 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 73″
• Last fight: TKO loss to Justin Gaethje (Sept. 14, 2019)
• Camp: BMF Ranch (New Mexico)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:

+ Multiple muay Thai titles
^ 28-0 as a pro kickboxer
+ 10 KO victories
+ 17 submission wins
+ 15 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Intelligent strike setups
^ Feints, reads, reacts
+ Devastating head kicks
+ Accurate and intercepting knees
+ Hard leg kicks
^ Most landed in UFC history
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ Solid level-changing takedown
+ Good transitional grappler
+ Active and attacking guard
+/- 4-9 against UFC-level southpaws

Point of interest: Southpaw shootout at Cowboy’s corral

The main event for UFC 246 features a fun stylistic clash between two fighters who will ultimately be looking to control space.

Considering Donald Cerrone’s history against southpaw strikers who can pressure, I can understand why some may have concerns about this particular matchup for “Cowboy.”

However, with pressure, in general, being a common threat throughout Cerrone’s career, the 14-year pro has sharpened elements of his game to help him keep distance and dissuade the aggression that is typically headed his way.

A pronounced muay Thai striker who loves to play in space, Cerrone has always embraced his kicking arsenal to help him gauge and maintain his preferred range. Cerrone also carries his patented check-knee up the middle, which adds a crucial layer to his preservation of said space (particularly when pitted against shorter opposition).

In recent years, the 36-year-old veteran has proven to provide much more than the kicks that comprise his highlight reel, showing strides in his ability to connect punches inside the pocket or in combination.

Working with everyone from Brandon Gibson to Joe Schilling, the more recent iterations of Cerrone have him moving his head and torso offline and at angles, unloading his punches with slightly different mechanics than before. Often punching his way out of exchanges with his left hook, Cerrone will feed his newfound flow into his devastating head kicks, displaying an arsenal that’s much more symbiotic.

Regardless of what weapons Cerrone chooses to arm himself with, he will need to draw quick considering the fast start that will likely be headed his way on Saturday.

Enter the Irishman, Conor McGregor.

Despite often being labeled a counter striker, McGregor depends heavily on pressure to help kickstart his rhythm and open up opportunities.

Operating out of a southpaw stance, McGregor masterfully dictates distance, tossing out feints and fakes that take up a presence of their own. The former champ-champ commands a diverse arsenal of strikes, whether he is throwing front kicks, spinning kicks or shovel hooks.

However, these weapons are primarily used in a corralling effort to get McGregor’s opponents into his preferred kill zone.

A well-known tool in the Irish fighter’s wheelhouse, McGregor’s left cross is about as dynamic as they come. Whether he is launching his left from inside-slips over the top or taking the inside angle off the counter, the 31-year-old phenom’s placement is pristine.

What is most impressive about McGregor’s accuracy is the way in which he utilizes angles to adjust to his oncoming opposition (who are typically trying to enter or escape as far from the power side as possible). From his step-offs to the side, to the way in which McGregor pivots his feet, all allow for the SBG Ireland fighter to pitch his punches in a variety of forms.

That said, the potential problem with McGregor’s somewhat-bladed stance is that the weight distribution can leave him open to leg kicks, which was something that fighters like Dennis Siver, Dustin Poirier and Max Holloway were able to score with consistently despite losing. Considering that Cerrone is the fighter who has landed the most leg kicks in UFC history, I will be curious to see if McGregor elects to keep his somewhat lackadaisical defense toward leg kicks or gets more diligent with his checks for this matchup.

McGregor is not beyond catching kicks and countering but typically does so by catching the kick and sweeping the opposite leg, which could be tricky against a caliber of kicker like Cerrone, who also has a wicked guard game to fall back on.

Next point of interest: Grappling reminders