UFC on ESPN+ 26 breakdown: Close on paper, who wins Paul Felder vs. Dan Hooker banger?

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN+ 26.

UFC on ESPN+ 26 takes place Saturday (Sunday locally) at Spark Arena in Auckland, New Zealand. The event streams on ESPN+.

Paul Felder (17-4 MMA, 9-4 UFC)

Staple info:

• Height: 5’10” Age: 34 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 70.5″
• Last fight: Decision win over Edson Barboza (Sept. 7, 2019)
• Camp: Roufusport (Milwaukee, WI)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:

+ CFFC lightweight title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ Taekwondo black belt (2nd dan)
+ 10 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Solid feints and footwork
+ Diverse striking arsenal
^ Accurate spinning attacks
+ Dangerous knees and elbows
+ Underrated grappling ability
^ Shows submission acumen and awareness
+ Good butterfly guard/getups
+ Devastating ground-and-pound

Dan Hooker (19-8 MMA, 9-4 UFC)

Staple info:

• Height: 6’0″ Age: 30 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 75″
• Last fight: Decision win over Al Iaquinta(Oct. 5, 2019)
• Camp: City Kickboxing (New Zealand)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:

+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt
+ 10 KO victories
+ 7 submission wins
+ 12 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Good feints and footwork
^ Will switch stances
+ Works well off of lead hand
+ Accurate crosses and kicks
+ Dangerous knees and elbows
+ Improved wrestling
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Underrated grappler
^ Slick scrambling and submission acumen

Point of interest: Muay Thai maelstrom

The main event in Auckland features a fantastic clash of lightweight contenders who are very familiar with the art of eight limbs.

A muay Thai stylist who can stick and move off of pressure, Dan Hooker wields a diverse arsenal of attack. Whether he’s fighting from orthodox or southpaw, the New Zealand native can strike well from either stance, both coming forward or off the counter.

Working nicely off of a long and well-placed jab, Hooker can offensively prod with effect or attach it to the end of combinations as a disruptive check to help dissuade counters. Often following up with his patented crosses and head kicks, the 30-year-old talent will continue to vary his tempo and attacks throughout the contest, steadily building in pace and pressure.

Helping glue together Hooker’s offensive repertoire is his ability to effectively feint in space – something that I suspect he can thank Eugene Bareman and the City Kickboxing crew for. Nevertheless, despite Hooker’s noted technical improvements and inherent chin, defense has not necessarily been his strong suit, making offense a potent, two-way street.

Enter “The Irish Dragon.”

More of a come-forward stalking threat, Paul Felder can throw a diverse arsenal of attack off of feints or shuffle-steps forward. Mixing in accurate spinning attacks from his taekwondo base, Felder does well at keeping himself on balance, ready to return at the drop of a dime. And since his time spent with the great Duke Roufus at Roufusport, Felder’s style seems to be growing even more synergistically given the seemingly perfect fit.

Appearing much more comfortable entering the pocket, Felder works behind his feinting left-hand, sitting down on check hooks and elbows when appropriate. Felder has also shown an ability to fight much more tactically when he needs to, as we saw him demonstrate this by smartly honing in on James Vick’s long limbs to land calf kicks.

If Felder can find a similar chink in Hooker’s armor early, then we could see his offense and aggression grow at a healthy rate throughout the battle. But considering Felder’s propensity to cut and wear damage, then he, too, will also need to properly weigh risk versus reward whenever he is looking to push forward.

Next point of interest: Potential grappling threats