Predictions! Bellator 241 Main Card Preview & Quick Picks

Bellator MMA

Bellator 241: “Pitbull vs. Carvalho” comes to Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn., tomorrow night (Fri., March 13, 2020) streaming live online via DAZN. The “champ-champ,” Patricio Freire, puts his 145-pound title on the line in the main event against Pedro Carvalho in one of two Featherweight Grand Prix match ups for the “Elite 8.”

Let’s break down DAZN’s main card match ups:

185 lbs.: Anatoly Tokov (29-2) vs. Fabio Aguiar (17-1)

Despite being unbeaten in his Bellator tenure over five fights, Anatoly Tokov may still be a mystery to all but the most hardcore MMA followers. Fighting on a DAZN only card may not help matters but it’s another chance to exert dominance in a Middleweight division that’s suddenly wide open thanks to Rafael Lovato Jr. relinquishing the title. Tokov is a Russian version of the aforementioned Daley — a thick muscular 185 lb. fighter standing 5’10” with knockout power (16 of 29) and a submission game too (seven of 29). In a case of deja vu his opponent Fabio Aguiar is also taller (6’0”) and skinnier with an equal penchant for striking (nine of 17 wins). Will the result ultimately be similar as well? Most likely.

Final prediction: Anatoly Tokov via second round technical knockout

265 lbs.: Matt Mitrione (13-7, 1 NC) vs. Ronny Markes (19-7)

After an undisclosed medical issue bounced Josh Barnett from this card, Bellator MMA was forced to find a last minute replacement for his fight with Ronny Markes. Thankfully Matt Mitrione was able to step up with about a week to go, but that’s certainly easier for a Heavyweight to do than most fighters who worry about their weight cut. The last few years have not been kind to him though — he lost a tournament bout to Ryan Bader, had a fight end in a no contest, then suffered a technical knockout loss in the rematch in part because he forgot his mouthpiece. Hopefully he remembered to pack it this time. Markes is only 1-2 in his last three bouts as well, but did score a technical knockout win at his last fight for PFL in 2019. Being 10 years the younger of the two at 31, I think Father Time will be on Markes’ side.

Final prediction: Ronny Markes wins via first round knockout

155 lbs.: Nick Newell (16-3) vs. Zach Zane (14-9)

I was a believer in Nick Newell during his World Series of Fighting days. He ran up a perfect 11-0 record right until he ran into Justin Gaethje, and then he was on the wrong side of a one-sided ass whooping. He’s got advantages in areas that you wouldn’t expect until you examine the details. Not having a full left arm makes it harder for opponents to grapple with him standing, and not having the heft of that arm allows him to be more muscular in all other areas and still meet the Lightweight division pound limit. If you’ve ever been bashed by his shoulder or stump on that side you know just how strong he is. The flip side is what we saw in his last fight — take him down and you can make him miserable trying to get back up. He has one less hand to push off the canvas with, to punch an opponent in the face with, to grab a limb for a submission or a sweep with. Zane has only lost two of his last twelve fights, so while Newell’s record looks better on paper, it did against Manny Muro going into that fight as well.

Final prediction: Zach Zane by unanimous decision

That’s a wrap!

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