UFC 251: Jose Aldo vs. Petr Yan odds, picks and best bets
(Editor’s note: This post first appeared on Sportsbook Wire, part of the USA TODAY Network.)
Petr Yan and Jose Aldo square off in a bantamweight bout for the vacant title on the main card Saturday at UFC 251 at the UFC’s “Fight Island” facility on Yas Island, Abu Dhabi. The prelims kick off at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.
Yan (14-1) might have a three-inch disadvantage in reach, but that’s about the only shortcoming here. The switch-stance fighter has a sizable 5.65 to 3.47 advantage in significant strikes landed per minute, and 1.73 to 0.64 in takedown average. Yan is coming off a TKO win in Round 3 against Urijah Faber last time out at UFC 245, and is 6-0 at the UFC level with three KO/TKO victories and three wins by unanimous decision, too. The only setback of his career came at ACB 32, a split decision loss to Magomed Magomedov in March, 2016.
The veteran Aldo (28-6), coming off a split decision loss to Marlon Moraes at UFC 245, is just 3-5 in the previous eight outings with three knockout losses. In addition, five of his past eight fights have finished inside the distance, too.
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Petr Yan vs. Jose Aldo betting odds
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday, July 9 at 6 a.m. ET.
Yan (-228) is a heavy favorite against the veteran Aldo (+185), and risking more than two times than your potential return is a bit of risky business, so you’ll need to be more specific. Rolling with YAN BY KO/TKO or DQ (+120) on the 7-way Method of Victory line is a better way to go. If you want to take YAN BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (+110) on the 5-way line, adding another route to a winning ticket, it won’t cost you much more.
Also see: UFC 251 Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal: Main Card Odds
UNDER 4.5 ROUNDS (-143) is a solid play, too, as Yan is a heavy hitter, ranking second among active bantamweights with 1.52 knockdowns per 15 minutes. Yan also has an impressive 2.5 striking differential. On the flip side, he is fifth among bantamweights with a 67.8 significant strike-defense percentage and 87.5 takedown-defense percentage. All of those stats point to a shorter fight and a Yan win.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet Yan by KO/TKO or DQ (+120) returns a profit of $12. A $10 wager on Yan (-228) on the 2-way line fetches a net profit of $4.39, while betting $10 on the Under 4.5 Rounds (-143) returns a net profit of $6.99.
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