Benavidez Vs Figueiredo Predictions, Odds For UFC Fight Island 2

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads toward its twelfth live MMA event during the pandemic. And with all wandering sports-eyes focussed on UFC, Uncle Dana will be more than happy to continue the fighting festivities in Abu Dhabi when necessary. Let’s take a deep-dive into this weekend’s flyweight main event and how the bookmakers are assessing the title situation. 

In the history of televised mixed martial arts (MMA), nothing is more compelling than a title fight with massive implications that’s accompanied by a compelling backstory, and this weekend’s UFC Fight Island 2 main event, which takes place TONIGHT (Sat., July 18, 2020) on ESPN+ from “Fight Island” in Abu Dhabi, is precisely that.

Heavy-hitting Brazilian, Deiveson Figueiredo, will make his second attempt at capturing UFC gold against the same opponent from his first attempt at title glory, Joseph Benavidez, back in the UFC Norfolk headliner. However, a poor weight cut forced Figueiredo to relinquish his chance to claim the title (win or lose) and give up a percentage of his wage packet. The controversy continued after Figueiredo won via technical knockout following a clash of heads and Benavidez went on to claim Figueiredo purposely head-butted him.

Benavidez, a combat sports legend and future Hall of Famer, will attempt to capture a UFC championship for the fourth time. Two losses against former flyweight kingpin Demetrious Johnson put Benavidez in a lose/lose situation regardless of how many fights he went on to win in the aftermath of his “Mighty Mouse” losses. His knockout defeat to Figueiredo was nothing beyond an intentional head-butt, according to Benavidez, but only time will tell.

The stage is set on “Fight Island” in Abu Dhabi and the two best flyweights in UFC will clash for a second time this year which will no doubt possess “Fight of the Year” potential and crown the newly greatest flyweight in the world.

Joseph ‘Benavidez
Age: 35
Professional MMA record: 28-6-0
Gym: Xtreme Couture & Team Alpha Male
First Fight: June 3^rd 2006 (UFC debut 2011)
Streak: 1 loss (Figueiredo by TKO)

Path to Victory – Benavidez must keep his composure entering into a second clash with the power-striker Figueiredo. On record, complaining about depression and bouts of crying could well-be concussion symptoms. He’s not getting any younger and the powerful strikes of his opposition could be taking their toll. A defensive mind-set should probably be more of a priority than what “Joe Jitsu” is used to. Figueiredo loves to counter-strike and happily welcomed the aggressive approach Benavidez took in their first fight.

The power difference was vital in the first go-round, Benavidez loved to make his way inside and get himself into a dog fight but found himself countered with power strikes against the Brazilian. Figueiredo effortlessly switched stances and would exchange in the pocket with Benavidez like when we saw the clash of heads.

The exciting style of Benavidez needs to be tamed. Figueiredo’s chin has proven its durability, so a smart fight for “Joe Jitsu” would involve an intelligent strategy. His hands fall by his side, wild punches and kicks are exchanged and more often than not, Benavidez has come out on top, but not against Figueiredo – the tactic needs altering for the second encounter.

Deiveson Figueiredo
Age: 32
Professional MMA record: 16-1-0
Gym: Marajo Brothers
First Fight: Feb 17^th 2012 (UFC debut 2017)
Streak: 3 wins (Benavidez by TKO, Elliot by Sub, Pantoja by Decision)

Path to Victory – Deiveson Figueiredo has imposed himself on the flyweight division, one of the rare power strikers among the elite 125 pounders. A one-blow kill shot is all it takes from the Brazilian and nobody learned this lesson more than Benavidez himself.

Their first encounter was a lopsided round one in favor of Figueiredo, followed by a second-round TKO following a clash of heads. Yes, the head butt was a factor, but it would be remiss to completely disregard the prior damage Figueiredo had accumulated on Benavidez.

I expect a similar outcome. If not, a more impressive showing from Figueiredo the second time around. So long as he doesn’t struggle with his (successful) weight cut and his cardio can take him into deep waters, I predict the country of Brazil will have a new weight class added to their list of UFC titles.

Benavidez vs Figueiredo Bookmakers Odds

The bookmaker’s opinion has shifted weight since their first fight, as the -165 betting favorite (Benavidez) has now traded places with the underdog for this weekend’s rematch. Benavidez opened up as the +135 underdog for his title shot on “Fight Island.” I guess the oddsmakers saw more than a clash of heads from Figueiredo in their first (somewhat) controversial ending.

Now sitting at +185 the line movement is questionable. And although I favor Figueiredo in the rematch, if the line continues to move, a look on the other side may hold some value.

Final Prediction: Deiveson Figueiredo by KO/TKO

MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Fight Island 2 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” undercard bouts at 5 p.m. ET, followed by the ESPN+ main card start time at 8 p.m. ET.

For the rest of the UFC Fight Island 2 fight card and ESPN+ line up click here.