Predictions! UFC Vegas 5 Undercard Preview – Pt. 1

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With Irene Aldana out of commission, top 185-pound prospect Edmen Shahbazyan gets his first main event this Sat. night (Aug. 1, 2020) when he faces veteran Derek Brunson in the UFC Vegas 5 middleweight headliner from inside UFC APEX, streaming exclusively on ESPN+.

Down at 125 pounds, Joanne Calderwood steps in on short notice to face flyweight sensation Jennifer Maia, while Vicente Luque faces 170-pound bruiser Randy Brown in what could be a welterweight slobberknocker. Before any of that transpires, there’s half a dozen “Prelims” to sift through.

Here’s a roadmap for the first batch.

185 lbs.: Markus Perez (12-3) vs. Eric Spicely (12-5)

“Maluko” entered the world’s largest fight promotion on the heels of a submission win over Ian Heinisch, which earned him the LFA Middleweight Championship. He hasn’t quite found his footing in the Octagon, going 2-3 and recently dropping a decision to Wellington Turman. He is the shorter man by an inch but has a slight reach advantage.

Impressive submissions of Thiago Santos and Alessio Di Chirico had “Zebrinha” knocking on the door of contention, only for three consecutive stoppage losses to bounce him from the promotion. After scoring a pair of knockouts in CES, he returned to face Deron Winn on short notice, earning Fight of the Night in a competitive defeat. All 10 of his professional finishes have come in the first round.

It’s hard to get a bead on Perez, who at times seems like less than the sum of his parts. Unfortunately for Spicely, he might be in an even worse position, proving consistently unable to parlay his legitimately excellent ground game into consistent MMA success. The devil-may-care approach he took against Winn looked promising, though, and he could find success outworking “Maluko.”

That possibility isn’t compelling enough to discount his issues with wrestling and durability, however. Perez should be able to hold his own on the feet and take Spicely down as necessary, either racking up enough top control to claim the decision or catching Spicely in a front choke if the latter tries his own shot.

Prediction: Perez by unanimous decision

145 lbs.: Jamall Emmers (17-5) vs. Timur Valiev (16-2)

Emmers’ loss on the “Contender Series” didn’t stop him from winning his next four by stoppage, including a submission over Rafael Barbosa in his first LFA main event. He ultimately made the Octagon walk in March, where he lost a narrow decision to Giga Chikadze at UFC 248. He’s knocked out seven pro opponents and submitted another three.

Valiev reached the 2018 PFL Featherweight playoffs with wins over Max Coga and Bekbulat Magomedov, only to withdraw due to injury. He then returned to Russia to win two more bouts and extend his winning streak to six since a questionable decision loss to Chris Gutierrez. He stands four inches shorter than Emmers and gives up six inches of reach.

This is a tough matchup for Emmers to begin with, and it’ll only get tougher if he keeps up his habit of waiting to wrestle until he’s already dropped a round. Valiev’s speed and variety make him the more effective striker even with Emmers’ height and reach, and though the Dagestani is a natural Bantamweight, his PFL run showed that he can hold his own against 145ers.

Emmers can still win this if he focuses on taking Valiev to the mat, especially if Valiev gets overly fond of throwing flying knees or catchable kicks, but Valiev’s historically shown good balance and the ability to get off of his back in a hurry. Like training partner Frankie Edgar, Valiev defuses the larger man with slick movement and volume to take the decision.

Prediction: Valiev by unanimous decision

135 lbs.: Chris Gutierrez (15-3-1) vs. Cody Durden (11-2)

Gutierrez started his Octagon career on the wrong foot, tapping to a rear naked choke from Brazilian standout Raoni Barcelos. Things have gone a bit more smoothly since, as he’s won three straight and scored a rare leg kick finish in the process. He’s scored seven wins by form of knockout and one via rear naked choke.

The latest quality signing of the quarantine era, Durden enters the UFC in the midst of a seven-fight winning streak. The ATT Atlanta product last fought on the 18^th of this month, demolishing John Sweeney in just 80 seconds. He replaces Luke Sanders on six days’ notice.

This pick is a shot in the dark, unfortunately. All of Durden’s recent fights are locked behind FloCombat’s paywall, leaving me to extrapolate from older footage against terrible opposition. Between a strong wrestling pedigree and some decent striking, he definitely looks like a strong prospect, but he hasn’t dealt with anyone even near Gutierrez’s level.

While Gutierrez has admittedly had some issues with takedown defense in the past, his quality footwork and debilitating leg kicks will make it extremely difficult for Durden to get his wrestling offense going. There may be some key to Durden’s victory hiding in that footage, but expect Gutierrez to steadily break him down for a late finish.

Prediction: Gutierrez by second-round TKO

Three more UFC Vegas 5 “Prelims” bouts remain to preview and predict, among them a debuting bantamweight and a fun light heavyweight clash between longtime middleweights. Same time tomorrow, Maniacs!

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 5 fight card this weekend, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the main card portion that also streams on ESPN+ at 9 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 5: “Brunson vs Shahbazyan” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.