UFC 263 Odds, Under Dogs And Best Bets!

Get a detailed breakdown of the betting lines for UFC 263, which is set to hit Gila River Arena in Glendale, Ariz., this weekend (Sat., June 12, 2021), including best bets, underdogs, favorites and much more!

Two destructive champions look to settle some standing grudges this Saturday (June 12, 2021) when Israel Adesanya and Deiveson Figueiredo defend their respective titles against lethal challengers Marvin Vettori and Brandon Moreno. UFC 263, which will take place inside Gila River Arena in Glendale, Ariz., will also see Nate Diaz return to action against streaking Welterweight contender Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad lock horns with the ageless Demian Maia.

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What Went Wrong at UFC Vegas 28?

I actually arranged last week’s bets such that only one of them needed to hit to ensure a profit, meaning that Jordan Leavitt’s sad display didn’t totally sink us. Unfortunately, Mason Jones turning a guaranteed win into a “No Contest” via eye poke limited the payout from his parlay, and Montana De La Rosa and Gregory Rodrigues weren’t quite enough to make up the difference. It was unfortunate, but we trudge forward …

UFC 263 Odds For The Under Card:

Drew Dober (-135) vs. Brad Riddell (+115)
Eryk Anders (-150) vs. Darren Stewart (+130)
Joanne Calderwood (-145) vs. Lauren Murphy (+125)
Movsar Evloev (-235) vs. Hakeem Dawodu (+195)
Pannie Kianzad (-210) vs. Alexis Davis (+175)
Matt Frevola (-300) vs. Terrance McKinney (+240)
Steven Peterson (-120) vs. Chase Hooper (EVEN)
Fares Ziam (-135) vs. Luigi Vendramini (+115)
Carlos Felipe (-170) vs. Jake Collier (+150)

Thoughts: That’s a whole mess of competitive match ups right there, but that doesn’t mean we can’t squeeze some value out of it. Therefore, let’s cast a wide net and see where that gets us.

Outside of his loss to Islam Makhachev — who’s a problem for pretty much any Lightweight alive — Drew Dober’s recent form has been impeccable. Still, I think underdog Brad Riddell could be a good play. “Quake” has a ton of striking experience and is finally facing a UFC opponent who’s not focused on takedowns, which should give him free rein to really let his hands go and get those vicious combinations of his going.

It’s worth a shot, at least.

While he hasn’t fully lived up to my hopes, Hakeem Dawodu strikes me as undervalued (check out our interview with him here). He just defeated another highly skilled wrestler in Zubaira Tukhugov, and though Movsar Evloev has a better submission game and more reliable gas tank than Tukhugov, he also lacks the vicious speed and punching power “Warrior” used to keep Dawodu honest on the feet.

In the end, expect Dawodu’s more complete striking arsenal to carry the day.

The funny thing about Steven Peterson vs. Chase Hooper is that while “Ocho” has a laundry list of flaws, Hooper is equipped to exploit none of them. Peterson has decent wrestling, a cinderblock for a chin, a great gas tank, and a stubborn refusal to ever take a step back, all of which make him a nightmare for Hooper’s nonexistent stand up. Unless Hooper’s made some huge strides (which seems a bit optimistic considering his limited improvement between the Caceres and Barrett fights), Peterson’s going to walk him down and mulch him on the feet.

For completion’s sake, a Pannie Kianzad/Carlos Felipe parlay could work. Kianzad proved she could handle a dangerous grappler in her win over Sijara Eubanks and Felipe’s relentlessness should pay dividends against Collier.

UFC 263 Odds For The Main Card:

Israel Adesanya (-255) vs. Marvin Vettori (+215)
Deiveson Figueiredo (-230) vs. Brandon Moreno (+190)
Leon Edwards (-570) vs. Nate Diaz (+435)
Belal Muhammad (-225) vs. Demian Maia (+185)
Jamahal Hill (-270) vs. Paul Craig (+230)

Thoughts: I like Figueiredo to retain his title and Hill to defeat Craig in their battle of Light Heavyweight prospects.

For my money, Moreno had his best possible shot in his first meeting with “Deus da Guerra,” as Figueiredo had to deal with two weight cuts within one month and was reportedly hospitalized with a stomach infection the day before fight night. Even then, he only managed to take two rounds from the champ (see scorecard here), and I don’t imagine him faring much better against a better-prepared version.

In other words, a moderate bet on “and still” makes sense.

I underestimate Craig on the regular, and there’s no denying that the man’s getting better at a remarkable clip. Even acknowledging that, Hill looks all wrong for him, boasting a three-inch reach advantage and the knowledge of how to use it. “Sweet Dreams’” long-range attack and solid footwork figure to limit Craig’s chances of actually finding an opening to shoot in, and even if he does manage to put Hill on his back, Hill’s a difficult man to hold down. Don’t go crazy because, after all, this is Paul Craig we’re talking about, but do put a bit down on Hill.

UFC 263 Best Bets:

• Parlay — Brad Riddell and Jamahal Hill: Bet $80 to make $156
• Parlay — Deiveson Figueiredo and Hakeem Dawodu: Bet $60 to make $193.80
• Parlay — Deiveson Figueiredo and Steven Peterson: Bet $150 to make $244.57
• Parlay — Pannie Kianzad and Carlos Felipe: Bet $100 to make $134

If last Sunday’s shenanigans left a bad taste in your mouth, this should wash it out. See you Saturday, Maniacs.

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 263 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, then the remaining undercard balance on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, before the PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 263: “Adesanya vs. Vettori 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.

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