Predictions! UFC Vegas 33 ‘Prelims’ Preview – Pt. 1

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is bringing more “Prelims” fights to ESPN/ESPN+ this weekend (Sat., July 31, 2021) when UFC Vegas 33: “Hall vs. Strickland” returns to UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. MMAmania.com’s Patrick Stumberg kicks off the UFC Vegas 33 “Prelims” party with the first installment of a two-part undercard preview series below.

Two top Middleweights in the midst of unexpected resurgences lock horns this Saturday (July 31, 2021) when The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) veteran Uriah Hall meets Sean Strickland inside UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. Meanwhile, 80 pounds north, Chris Daukaus welcomes Shamil Abdurakhimov back to the Octagon in a rescheduled Heavyweight tussle, while TUF graduates Gloria de Paula and Cheyanne Buys look to bounce back from unsuccessful debuts at each others’ expense.

UFC Vegas 33 boasts a hefty line up of nine “Prelims” undercard bouts this time around; therefore, let’s have a gander at the first five below:

145 lbs.: Danny Chavez vs. Kai Kamaka III

Just one month after ending a nearly two-year layoff, Danny Chavez (11-4) stepped up on short notice to face “Contender Series” graduate T.J. Brown, tearing up “Downtown’s” lead leg en route to a unanimous decision victory. He couldn’t do the same against Jared Gordon, who used pressure and top control to neutralize “The Colombian Warrior.”

He’s ended three professional fights via knockout.

Kai Kamaka III (8-4) lived up to the hype in his last-minute UFC debut, which saw him outlast Tony Kelley over three rounds to claim Fight of the night. Subsequent efforts proved less successful, as he tapped to a Jonathan Pearce RNC and lost a controversial decision to T.J. Brown.

He gives up three inches of height and two inches of reach to Chavez.

Odds-wise, this is the closest fight on the card, and I’m inclined to agree with the bookies’ assessment. This is a flat-out dead heat between two men with the tools to exploit the other’s lingering weaknesses. Chavez’s straight punches and raw power are a real problem for Kamaka’s stationary chin, while Kamaka offers the heavy leg kicks and aggressive wrestling that Gordon used to great effect.

Though he let me down against Pearce, I’ve got Kamaka by a hair. Chavez is too willing to cede ground and too ineffective off of his back for my linking, and Kamaka’s at least got the durability to survive the punches his leaky defense lets through. In the end, Kamaka grits out a razor-thin decision on the strength of his top control.

Prediction: Kamaka via split decision

115 lbs.: Jinh Yu Frey vs. Ashley Yoder

Jinh Yu Frey (10-6) — the former Invicta Atomweight champion — stumbled out of the UFC gate with consecutive losses to Kay Hansen and Loma Lookboonmee. With her back against the wall, she managed to survive some rough spots to beat Gloria de Paula in March 2021.

She is the shorter woman by four inches and gives up as much reach.

Ashley Yoder (8-7) snapped a three-fight skid with consecutive decisions over Amanda Cooper and Syuri Kondo, only to lose her next two. She managed to get back on track by beating Miranda Granger, but once again fell short against old rival Angela Hill in March 2021.

“The Spider Monkey” has scored four submissions as a professional, though none since 2016.

This isn’t what you’d call a prediction-friendly fight. If both women fight at their best, Frey’s definitely got the edge, as Yoder’s wrestling and striking have yet to catch up to her jiu-jitsu game. The thing is, Frey never fights to the best of her abilities; she’s one of the most self-destructively passive fighters I’ve ever seen in the sport, often failing to do even the bare minimum to sway the judges.

Yoder’s got a real chance to win this by simply doing more than Frey. Even if her takedowns fail and her strikes don’t find their mark, she’ll at least be making an effort, which is more than you can say about Frey. On the other hand, Frey’s left hand by itself is more potent than Yoder’s entire stand up arsenal and she’s not too shabby a wrestler herself. Combine that with a history of winning razor-thin decisions and I say Frey ekes it out.

Prediction: Frey via split decision

135 lbs.: Ronnie Lawrence vs. Trevin Jones

Though he failed to find the finish in his “Contender Series” bout with Jose Johnson, Ronnie Lawrence’s (7-1) wrestling clinic impressed Dana White enough to earn him a contract anyway. “The Heat” rewarded this faith by routing Vince Cachero in his “Performance of the Night”-winning UFC debut.

He’s ended four professional fights with strikes.

Trevin Jones (13-6) authored one of 2020’s biggest upsets by knocking out top prospect Timur Valiev, only for a failed drug test to turn it into a “No Contest.” Undaunted, he got in the UFC win column proper with another impressive knockout against Mario Bautista in Feb. 2021.

He was previously slated to face Tony Kelley last Saturday, but now steps in for John Castaneda.

It’s hard to figure out exactly how good Jones is — he was losing both of his UFC fights before he, well, wasn’t. No such ambiguity exists for Lawrence, whose excellent wrestling makes him stand out in a division absolutely choked with talent. That said, Valiev is also enormously talented and we all saw how that worked out for him.

That’s really the long and short of it. Lawrence will dominate on the mat and is skilled enough with his in-and-out striking to hold his own on the feet. Jones needs to find that one-hitter quitter again, which is admittedly more feasible than it sounds. Still, expect Lawrence to put the pace on him and wrestle his way to another Octagon victory.

Prediction: Lawrence via unanimous decision

170 lbs.: Philip Rowe vs. Orion Cosce

Philip Rowe (7-3) rode a six-fight win streak into his 2019 turn on “Contender Series,” where he battered the favored Leon Shahbazyan into submission to earn a spot in the Octagon. A series of cancelations pushed his debut back until Feb. 2021, when he dropped a decision to Gabe Green for his first loss since 2015.

“The Fresh Prince” stands four inches taller than Orion Cosce (7-0) and boasts a nine-inch reach advantage.

Less than two years after his professional debut, Cosce found his way onto “Contender Series” against blue-chip prospect Matt Dixon. After struggling with his foe’s wrestling in the early going, Cosce’s pressure turned the tide and secured him both a last-second finish and a UFC contract.

He’s knocked out six foes and submitted one other.

While the 27-year-old Cosce is far from a finished product, he’s perfectly equipped to win this. Rowe’s massive height and reach advantages are offset by his vulnerability to pressure, which the hard-charging Cosce is more than happy to exploit. To make matters worse for Rowe, Cosce’s too adept a wrestler for Rowe to bail himself out of bad spots with takedowns like he did against Green.

Don’t expect the sort of critical cardio failure that sank his brother Louis, either — “Galaxy” is more than capable of going three hard rounds. Even if the early finish isn’t there for Cosce, he’ll be in Rowe’s face and testing his chin all night. In short, attrition and toughness carry him to a dominant debut victory.

Prediction: Cosce via unanimous decision

125 lbs.: Ryan Benoit vs. Zarrukh Adashev

These two were supposed to fight in May, but Benoit borked his weight cut. My thoughts on the matchup haven’t changed in the last two months, so let’s just use what we’ve got …

Ryan Benoit (10-7) began his UFC career by alternating losses and wins, amassing a 3-3 record and taking home a post-fight bonus for his debut bout with Josh Sampo. “Baby Face” has since dropped two straight, losing decisions to Alatengheili and Tim Elliott.

His nine professional finishes include eight by form of knockout.

Though he fell in his mixed martial arts (MMA) debut, former kickboxer Zarrukh Adashev (3-3) went on to win three straight under the Bellator banner, two of them inside the distance. He’s yet to taste victory in the Octagon itself, though, falling short against knockout artists Tyson Nam and Sumudaerji.

He gives up 3.5 inches of reach to Benoit.

Losing to the likes of Nam and Sumudaerji is nothing to be ashamed of, and now that he’s fighting someone closer to his own height, I expect a much better showing from Adashev. Though Benoit has serious power, his standup never quite developed enough to properly deliver it, and his offensive wrestling isn’t particularly potent.

Adashev has Benoit out-classed in a pure striking battle, which Benoit’s underdeveloped takedown game is insufficient to prevent. In short, a fast-paced slugfest sees Adashev land the cleaner, more telling blows to seal the deal.

Prediction: Adashev via unanimous decision

Four more UFC Vegas 33 “Prelims” undercard bouts remain to preview and predict, including a great clash of Featherweight “Contender Series” graduates. Same time tomorrow, Maniacs.

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 33 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance on ESPN/ESPN+ at 9 p.m. ET.

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