UFC Fight Night 196 predictions: Marvin Vettori or Paulo Costa in 205-pound main event?

	Costa vs. Vettori	Dawson vs. Glenn	Clark vs. Edwards	Caceres vs. Choi	Grant vs. Trinaldo	Negumereanu vs. Villanueva
MMA Junkie readers’ consensus picks 2021: 167-97	Costa (57%)	Dawson (87%)	Clark (75%)	Choi (50.1%)	Trinaldo (63%)	Negumereanu (77%)
John Morgan @MMAjunkieJohn 2021: 172-92	Vettori	Dawson	Clark	Choi	Trinaldo	Negumereanu
Simon Samano @SJSamano 2021: 166-98	Vettori	Dawson	Edwards	Choi	Trinaldo	Negumereanu
Nolan King @mma_kings 2021: 164-100	Vettori	Dawson	Edwards	Choi	Trinaldo	Negumereanu
Dan Tom @DanTomMMA 2021: 161-103 2020 Champion	Vettori	Glenn	Clark	Choi	Trinaldo	Villanueva
Ken Hathaway @kenshathaway 2021: 160-104 2018 Champion	Costa	Dawson	Edwards	Choi	Grant	Negumereanu
Matt Erickson @MMAjunkieMatt 2021: 160-104	Vettori	Dawson	Clark	Choi	Trinaldo	Negumereanu
Mike Bohn @MikeBohnMMA 2021: 159-105 2014 Champion	Vettori	Dawson	Clark	Caceres	Trinaldo	Negumereanu
Brian Garcia @thegoze 2021: 155-109 2017 Champion	Costa	Dawson	Clark	Choi	Trinaldo	Negumereanu
Danny Segura @dannyseguratv 2021: 154-110	Vettori	Dawson	Edwards	Caceres	Trinaldo	Negumereanu
George Garcia @MMAjunkieGeorge 2021: 153-111	Vettori	Dawson	Clark	Caceres	Grant	Negumereanu
Farah Hannoun @Farah_Hannoun 2021: 151-113	Costa	Dawson	Clark	Choi	Trinaldo	Negumereanu
Abbey Subhan @kammakaze 2021: 150-115	Costa	Dawson	Clark	Choi	Trinaldo	Negumereanu
Matthew Wells @MrMWells 2021: 90-58	Vettori	Dawson	Clark	Caceres	Grant	Negumereanu

The UFC stays home in Las Vegas this week with a key middleweight matchup atop the card – thought it won’t be at that weight class.

UFC Fight Night 196 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card streams on ESPN+.

(Click here to open a PDF of the staff picks grid in a separate window.)

In the main event, Paulo Costa (13-1 MMA, 5-1 UFC) takes on Marvin Vettori (17-4-1 MMA, 7-3-1 UFC) in a fight between the most recent two middleweight title challengers. They both lost to champion Israel Adesanya. But this fight won’t be at middleweight thanks to Costa’s failure to make weight. They’ll fight at 205 pounds after Costa came into fight week heavy and intially asked for a catchweight. Vettori is a -185 favorite at Tipico; the comeback on Costa is +140. Our 13 editors, writers, radio hosts and videographers have Vettori with a 9-4 picks lead.

In the co-feature, Grant Dawson (17-1 MMA, 5-0 UFC) is the biggest favorite on the card at -420 in his lightweight fight against Ricky Glenn (22-6-1 MMA, 4-3 UFC). He’s a near-unanimous pick from our staff members at 12-1.

Also on the main card, Jessica-Rose Clark (10-6 MMA, 3-2 UFC) takes on Joselyne Edwards (10-3 MMA, 1-1 UFC) in a women’s bantamweight bout. Clark is a -160 favorite, and she’s got a sizable 9-4 picks lead.

Alex Caceres (18-12 MMA, 13-10 UFC) meets Seungwoo Choi (10-3 MMA, 3-2 UFC) in a featherweight bout. Choi nearly is a 3-1 favorite, and he’s up big in the picks at 9-4.

It’s a close fight at the betting window between welterweights Dwight Grant (11-3 MMA, 3-2 UFC) and Francisco Trinaldo (26-8 MMA, 16-7 UFC). Trinaldo is just a -135 favorite, but he’s got a big 10-3 edge in the picks.

And to open the main card, Nicolae Negumereanu (10-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC) is a -230 favorite at light heavyweight against Ike Villanueva (18-12 MMA, 1-3 UFC). He’s a near-unanimous pick at 12-1 from our staff members.

In the MMA Junkie reader consensus picks, Costa (57 percent), Dawson (87 percent), Clark (75 percent), Choic (50.1 percent), Trinaldo (63 percent) and Negumereanu (77 percent) are the choices.

Check out all the picks above.