Diaz Upset Could Bankrupt Bookies

History has been made … and we’re still two days in front of fight night.

Longtime welterweight veteran Nate Diaz, who is competing for what could be the final time under the UFC banner, is a sizable betting underdog against undefeated 170-pound sensation Khamzat Chimaev. They’ll go to war in the UFC 279 pay-per-view (PPV) main event this Sat. night (Sept. 10, 2022) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

And one major sportsbook is facing a “seven-figure loss” with a Diaz upset.

“By the time Nate Diaz and Khamzat Chimaev meet in Saturday’s UFC 279 main event, it will be the biggest MMA decision in the history of BetOnline.ag,” Brand Manager Dave Mason wrote in an Email to MMAmania.com. “Not only are 97% of the early bettors banking on a Diaz upset, but the Stockton, Calif., product is getting the most bets on the entire card by far. There are five times more bets on Diaz than the fighter with the second highest bet count — Tony Ferguson. A potential Diaz upset will be a seven-figure loss for BetOnline.”

The money line has Diaz at +900 (9/1) against -1800 (1/18) for Chimaev.

Diaz, who turned 37 back in April, dropped to 20-13 with a unanimous decision loss to newly-crowned welterweight champion Leon Edwards at UFC 263 back in June 2021. It was the second straight defeat for The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 5 champ, who’s now taken the “L” in three of his last four.

The 28 year-old Chimaev improved his undefeated record to 11-0 by outlasting former title challenger Gilbert Burns in their “Fight of the Night” war at UFC 273 last April. The victory over “Durinho” was enough to land “Borz” at No. 3 in the official welterweight rankings and next in line for a division title shot.

Assuming he defeats Diaz.

I guess now would be a good time to mention that Diaz closed at +375 against Conor McGregor ahead of their UFC 196 clash, which is similar to his betting line (+315) against lightweight striker Michael Johnson. Diaz prevailed in both of those contests, with the former elevating him to UFC superstar (according to this analyst).

Here’s some more BetOnline.ag odds and props for Khamzat vs. Diaz at UFC 279:

Nate Diaz vs Khamzat Chimaev
Nate Diaz: +900 (9/1)
Khamzat Chimaev: -1800 (1/18)

Will the fight go the Distance?
Yes: +425 (17/4)
No: -650 (2/13)

Method of Victory

Khamzat Chimaev by KO/TKO or DQ: -150 (2/3)
Khamzat Chimaev by Submission: +275 (11/4)
Khamzat Chimaev by Points: +550 (11/2)

Nate Diaz by Submission: +900 (9/1)
Nate Diaz by KO/TKO or DQ: +1200 (12/1)
Nate Diaz by Points: +2200 (22/1)

Draw: +6600 (66/1)

Most Significant Strikes Landed

Khamzat Chimaev: -1200 (1/12)
Nate Diaz: +700 (7/1)

Most Takedowns Landed

Khamzat Chimaev: -3000 (1/30)
Nate Diaz: +1500 (15/1)

Point Spread

Khamzat Chimaev: -5½ Pts: -1000 (1/10)
Nate Diaz: +5½ Pts: +600 (6/1)

Method + Round

Khamzat Chimaev in Round 1 by KO/TKO or DQ: 16/5
Khamzat Chimaev in Round 2 by KO/TKO or DQ: 19/4
Khamzat Chimaev in Round 3 by KO/TKO or DQ: 17/2
Khamzat Chimaev in Round 4 by KO/TKO or DQ: 14/1
Khamzat Chimaev in Round 5 by KO/TKO or DQ: 25/1

Khamzat Chimaev in Round 1 by Submission: 13/2
Khamzat Chimaev in Round 2 by Submission: 8/1
Khamzat Chimaev in Round 3 by Submission: 25/2
Khamzat Chimaev in Round 4 by Submission: 18/1
Khamzat Chimaev in Round 5 by Submission: 25/1

Khamzat Chimaev by Points 11/2

Nate Diaz in Round 1 by KO/TKO or DQ: 33/1
Nate Diaz in Round 2 by KO/TKO or DQ: 35/1
Nate Diaz in Round 3 by KO/TKO or DQ: 40/1
Nate Diaz in Round 4 by KO/TKO or DQ: 45/1
Nate Diaz in Round 5 by KO/TKO or DQ: 50/1

Nate Diaz in Round 1 by Submission: 30/1
Nate Diaz in Round 2 by Submission: 33/1
Nate Diaz in Round 3 by Submission: 35/1
Nate Diaz in Round 4 by Submission: 40/1
Nate Diaz in Round 5 by Submission: 45/1

Nate Diaz by Points: 22/1

Draw: 66/1

Round Betting

Khamzat Chimaev in Round 1: 3/2
Khamzat Chimaev in Round 2: 3/1
Khamzat Chimaev in Round 3: 13/2
Khamzat Chimaev in Round 4: 11/1
Khamzat Chimaev in Round 5: 22/1

Khamzat Chimaev by Points: 11/2

Nate Diaz in Round 1: 18/1
Nate Diaz in Round 2: 19/1
Nate Diaz in Round 3: 20/1
Nate Diaz in Round 4: 22/1
Nate Diaz in Round 5: 22/1

Nate Diaz by Points: 22/1

Draw: 66/1

Diaz recently admitted he “gave up” on preparing for UFC 279 but that revelation didn’t appear to worry bettors, who continue to dump money on the uncrowned prince of Stockton. Perhaps because Diaz shared many of the same sentiments before his McGregor fight back in early 2016, prior to submitting “Notorious” with a rear-naked choke.

“It’s a fight as far as I’m concerned, him being a favorite and everybody thinks he’s going to win in one round,” Diaz said on the UFC 279 “Countdown” special. “You better take me clean out the way the odds are, right? Pressure’s on, dog.”

Either way, a lot of gambling money is going to change hands this weekend in Las Vegas. In which direction remains to be seen.

MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 279 fight card, starting with the early UFC Fight Pass/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches at 6 p.m. ET as well as the remaining undercard balance on ESPNN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET by clicking HERE. That’s followed by the PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV with live results and “Khamzat vs. Diaz” play-by-play action RIGHT HERE.

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