Predictions! UFC 283 Early ‘Prelims’ Preview – Pt. 1

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is bringing more “Prelims” fights to ABC/ESPN+ this weekend (Sat., Jan. 21, 2023) when UFC 283: “Teixeira vs. Hill” storms Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. MMAmania.com’s Patrick Stumberg kicks off the UFC 283 “Prelims” party with the first installment of a two-part undercard preview series below.

Rio de Janeiro hosts UFC’s first ESPN+ pay-per-view (PPV) card of 2023 this Sat. night (Jan. 21, 2023) when former light heavyweight champion Glover Teixeira battles streaking knockout artist Jamahal Hill for the vacant 205-pound title at Jeunesse Arena. In other title action, flyweight rivals Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno duke it out for a fourth time with the 125-pound belt on the line, while welterweight mainstay Gilbert Burns battles rugged veteran Neil Magny and former champion Jessica Andrade squares off with ex-title contender Lauren Murphy.

With the fight card cancellations coming hard and fast, the UFC brass have loaded the lineup with 10 “Prelims” matchups, split evenly between ESPN+ and ABC.

Let’s have a look at the former.

135 lbs.: Luan Lacerda (12-1) vs. Cody Stamann (20-5-1)

After falling to Ary Farias in his third pro fight, Lacerda tore through Shooto Brasil, ultimately claiming the promotion’s Bantamweight title with a submission of Wellington Lopes. He then took his talents to LFA, where he picked up a pair of second-round tapouts. 10 of his wins have come by submission.

Stamann quietly worked his way into Bantamweight contention with a 5-1-1 UFC start, only to lose his next three. Nearly two years to the day after his previous victory, he successfully broke out of the slump by knocking out Eddie Wineland in 59 seconds. If LFA’s Tale of the Tape is to be believed, he’ll have more than eight inches of reach on Stamann.

Stamann is a very good fighter with the misfortune of being in a division that demands genuine greatness. Luckily for him, Lacerda’s a step or two below the likes of Merab Dvalishvili and Said Nurmagomedov. The Nova Uniao product boasts a terrific ground game that’s undercut by middling wrestling and poor striking; that huge reach advantage won’t protect him from Stamann’s underrated standup and he’ll have to pull guard if he wants to bring his jiu-jitsu to bear.

All signs point to an ugly affair as Lacerda gets increasingly desperate to bring it to the mat and Stamann maintains a light touch on the gas to avoid giving Lacerda opportunities. Stamann sprawls-and-brawls to a wide decision.

Prediction: Stamann by unanimous decision

155 lbs.: Ismael Bonfim (18-3) vs. Terrance McKinney (13-4)

Bonfim enters the cage in the midst of a 12-fight winning streak, which dates back to a 2014 submission loss to Renato Moicano. His last three bouts have seen him defeat Rangel de Sa and Andrey Augusto in LFA before outclassing Nariman Abbasov on the Contender Series. He gives up two inches of height and 2.5 inches of reach to McKinney.

McKinney followed his Contender Series defeat to Sean Woodson with a 57-second submission loss to Darrick Minner. He’s since roared back with six first-round finishes in his last seven bouts, which include a 3-1 Octagon run, All of his wins are by stoppage, all but one in the first round.

This really just boils down to whether Bonfim can either stop McKinney with a counter or at the very least scare him off. “Marreta” has a tendency to back himself to the fence, as we saw against Abbasov, and that’s not a good tendency to have against a murderous puncher with excellent wrestling.

That Abbasov fight also showed off how much damage Bonfim can do off the back foot, though. Regard for his own personal well-being has never been among McKinney’s strong suits, so the opportunities will be there to take advantage of his eagerness and punish appropriately. Still, with how many tools McKinney brings to the table, I see him overwhelming Bonfim before the Brazilian’s technical edge can show itself.

Prediction: McKinney by first-round TKO

170 lbs.: Warlley Alves (15-5) vs. Nicolas Dalby (20-4-1)

Alves, the TUF: Brazil 3 winner, kicked off his UFC tenure with a 6-2 run. He’s since alternated losses and wins, most recently suffering a knockout defeat to Jeremiah Wells. This marks his first fight in nearly 19 months.

Dalby fought his way back to UFC with an impressive run under the Cage Warriors banner, then claimed his first Octagon win since 2015 by upsetting Alex Oliveira. He’s now 2-1 (1 NC) in his last four, as a failed drug test overturned his 2020 defeat to Jesse Ronson. He boasts a 2.5-inch reach advantage.

This fight is going to be stupid, and I say that as affectionately as possible. On one side, we’ve got a guy in Alves who seemingly has all the tools to succeed but implodes with worrying regularity. On the other we’ve got Dalby, a man as likely to win a gutsy comeback decision as he is to get blasted in the first round. Whoever ends up losing will not do so prettily.

My gut says Alves, largely on the strength of his wrestling. Dalby isn’t super adept at defending takedowns, as we saw against the one-dimensional Claudio Silva; even if Alves can’t club-and-sub him in the first few minutes, he’s got the means to cruise to victory. It’s equally likely that Dalby weathers the storm and takes over late like he did against Oliveira, but something tells me Alves’ signature guillotine will end things before Dalby can get out of first gear.

Prediction: Alves by first-round submission

145 lbs.: Josiane Nunes (9-1) vs. Zarah Fairn (6-4)

Nunes announced her arrival in UFC by viciously knocking out Bea Malecki in her Octagon debut. She had to go to the judges in her sophomore effort against Ramona Pascual, but kept her winning streak intact with a unanimous decision. She’s ended seven pro fights via knockout.

Fairn’s UFC debut pitted her against Megan Anderson, who put her away with a triangle choke late in the first. She wasn’t much more successful against Felicia Spencer, succumbing to ground-and-pound less than four minutes in. She fights for the first time in nearly three years, having withdrawn from three separate bouts in the interim.

If she does somehow make it to the cage, Fairn should give Nunes some issues. She’s got half a foot of height and reach on the Brazilian, and she displayed some functional boxing in the brief time she spent on her feet in the Octagon. It’s not like Nunes is a technical marvel; there’s not a lot to her game outside of the overhand left.

That said, Fairn has a 747’s worth of baggage behind her to go along with the cage rust. Once Nunes builds up a head of steam, it seems inevitable that Fairn will succumb. Fairn could wind up boxing “Josi” up, but that demands a level of discipline I’m not convinced “Infinite” possesses. Even with the size difference, Nunes knocks her block off.

Prediction: Nunes by first-round TKO

135 lbs.: Saimon Oliveira (18-4) vs. Daniel Marcos (13-0)

Though he failed to find the finish on the Contender Series, Oliveira impressed the brass enough to earn a UFC contract. Then came Tony Gravely, who avoided Oliveira’s constant guillotine attempts to snap his five-fight winning streak. He fights for the first time in exactly 364 days.

Marcos established himself as king of the hill in his native Peru before spending 33 months on the sidelines. He returned to action in September 2022, outclassing Brandon Lewis on the Contender Series to punch his ticket to the Octagon. Seven of his pro wins have come by (T)KO.

Always fun to see a mirror match. This time, it’s two upright, powerful Muay Thai artists who figured to beat the snot out of each other for however long the fight lasts.

For my money, Oliveira’s the likelier of the two to emerge victorious. He’s faced significantly stronger competition than Marcos, so we know he can deal with adversity and keep coming, and Marcos showed some potential cardio issues in his Contender Series victory over Brandon Lewis. Once things get into deep waters, I have more faith in Oliveira’s ability to stay afloat than Marcos’, especially since Marcos lacks the powerful wrestling needed to keep Oliveira from unleashing his full arsenal. Oliveira out-slugs him for a fun 15 minutes.

Prediction: Oliveira by unanimous decision

Five fights to go, including two debutants with 100-percent finishing rates. Same time tomorrow, Maniacs.

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 283 fight card on fight night, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, then the remaining undercard on ABC/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, before the PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.

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