Jones vs Gane: Why are people so sure Jones will win?

Topic. I honestly don’t get it.

The argument I keep hearing is that because Ngannou outwrestled and controlled Gane, that Jones would be able to do the same.

I get that Jones is the more skilled grappler, but Ngannou walks around at close to 300 lbs and is ridiculously strong. IMO it was largely his size and strength that allowed him to control Gane. I don’t recall Ngannou doing any submission attempts or any offensive grappling. He just muscled him down. Why do people think that Jones can do that to the naturally bigger Gane? He had a really hard time taking Reyes down. He outgrappled a completely gassed DC, and I (along with Jones it seems) don’t think that fighting DC at LHW is the same as fighting him at HW.

I don’t think Jones is that much better than Gane in striking. He has reach, but it’s not like he hasn’t been tagged before by people with a lower reach than Gane.

Gane is one of the more (if not the most) technical, fastest heavyweights. He’s naturally larger, probably the biggest and strongest opponent Jones has faced so far…. So why is everybody so sure that Jones is going to win?

My first impression was…. what a terrible first fight for Jones! But people seem to think that Jones will just run him over.

Who do you think wins this fight, and if you think Jones wins easily, why?