Predictions! UFC 285 Early ‘Prelims’ Preview – Pt. 1

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is bringing more “Prelims” fights to ESPN/ESPN+ this weekend (Sat., March 4, 2023) when UFC 285: “Jones vs. Gane” storms T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. MMAmania.com’s Patrick Stumberg kicks off the UFC 285 “Prelims” party with the first installment of a two-part undercard preview series below.

After more than three years on the sidelines, former Light Heavyweight champion, Jon Jones, finally makes a bid for Heavyweight gold this Saturday (March 4, 2023) when he battles Ciryl Gane inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. UFC 285 will also showcase Flyweight queenpin, Valentina Shevchenko, defending her crown against Mexican slugger, Alexa Grasso, while Geoff Neal attempts to halt the rise of Welterweight phenom, Shavkat Rakhmonov.

UFC 285 features nine “Prelims” undercard bouts this time, split 5/4 between Fight Pass/ESPN+. We’ve prepared the former batch for you below …

170 lbs.: Ian Garry vs. Song Kenan

Ian Garry (10-0) capped off his Cage Warriors run by beating Jack Grant for the Welterweight title, then followed up with a one-punch knockout of Jordan Williams in his UFC debut. “The Future” now sits at 3-0 in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion after winning decisions over Darian Weeks and Gabe Green.

Five of his six professional finishes have come by knockout.

An upset debut knockout of Bobby Nash kicked off a 4-1 UFC start for Song Kenan (16-6), who ended three of those wins inside the distance. A year on the sidelines followed, after which he suffered a first-round knockout loss to Max Griffin at the APEX.

He fights for the first time in almost exactly two years.

Three fights into his UFC career, I think it’s fair to expect more from Garry than what we’ve seen so far. Nothing about his game has graduated from “good” to “very good;” his movement is good and his hands are quick, but there’s no spark, no eye-catching bit of iron demanding a proper crucible.

Still, what he’s got so far should be enough to get past Song. Garry is fast and sharp enough to counter his way past Song’s slugging on the feet, and if things do wind up getting too hairy for the Irishman’s liking, he holds a considerable edge on the ground that Song’s shaky takedown defense should permit him to utilize.

In the end, Garry picks his shots and sneaks in takedowns for a comfortable decision win.

Prediction: Garry via unanimous decision

135 lbs.: Mana Martinez vs. Cameron Saaiman

Mana Martinez (10-3) battled through the loss of his coach to scrape past Guido Cannetti in his UFC debut. Though he fell short against Ronnie Lawrence next time out, “Manaboi” returned to the win column in Oct. 2022, edging out fellow slugger Brandon Davis.

Five of his eight knockout wins came in the first round.

Cameron Saaiman (7-0) parlayed his EFC title victory into a Contender Series opportunity that saw him knock out Josh Wang-Kim to earn a contract. When original debut foe Ronnie Lawrence withdrew, Saaiman squared off with Steven Koslow, whom he stopped in the waning seconds of the third round.

“MSP” faces a two-inch height disadvantage and a three-inch reach disadvantage.

If Martinez had lived up to even a fraction of his potential in the Octagon, I’d be calling for an upset here. Saaiman is a tornado of offense with little to no regard for his personal well-being; on paper, that shouldn’t work against a man with legitimately horrifying power. It’s not hard at all to picture Martinez catching Saaiman rushing in and instantly turning the lights out.

It was even easier to picture him doing that to Cannetti and Davis, though, and both of them pushed him to the brink despite being among the weakest members of the UFC roster. Even if Saaiman does give him plenty of opportunities to land that death punch, I can’t trust Martinez to capitalize. On the other hand, I can definitely trust Saaiman to bring the hurt.

Prediction: Saaiman via third round technical knockout

115 lbs.: Jessica Penne vs. Tabatha Ricci

After spending nearly four years on the sidelines, Jessica Penne (14-7) re-asserted herself as a Strawweight to watch by beating Lupita Godinez and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Her streak would stop at two, though, as fellow Invicta alum Emily Ducote out-struck her to a unanimous decision win in July 2022.

Her armbar of Kowalkiewicz marked her eight submission win and tenth finish overall.

A brutal UFC debut saw Tabatha Ricci (7-1) step up in weight on short notice to fight Manon Fiorot, who put away “Baby Shark” with strikes midway through the second round. She’s since found her footing at her proper weight class with victories over Maria Oliveira and Polyana Viana.

She gives up four inches of height and six inches of reach to Penne.

The last time these two were supposed to fight, I tabbed Penne as a legitimate upset threat. After going back over the tape, though, I think I have to flip-flop. While Ricci is nowhere near the boxer Ducote is, she’s quick enough to close the gap in similar fashion and figures to be the stronger takedown artist by a solid margin.

While Penne has a shot if she can consistently establish back control, Ricci’s judo prowess and willingness to take down dangerous submission artists like Viana suggests that she can handle the veteran’s transitions and grind out a decision win.

Prediction: Ricci via unanimous decision

135 lbs.: Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Farid Basharat

Da’Mon Blackshear (12-4) choked out DeAndre Anderson to win the CFFC Bantamweight title, which he defended six months later with a third-round finish of Josh Smith. When Youssef Zalal found himself in need of a last-minute opponent, Blackshear answered the call, starting strong but ultimately settling for a draw after losing a 10-8 third round.

All eight of his pro submissions have come via choke.

Farid Basharat’s (9-0) impressive run on the European circuit set up a Contender Series opportunity against Willian Souza, who wound up missing weight and scuttling the fight altogether. “Ferocious” eventually got his shot two months later and made the most of it, dominating Allan Begosso to join brother Javid in the Octagon.

He is the shorter man by two inches.

The only way Blackshear wins this is if Basharat turns out to have atrocious takedown defense, and it’d be a struggle even then. Basharat’s speed, footwork, and fluidity all leave Blackshear’s in the dust. “Da Monster” will have all kinds of trouble just getting to Basharat, much less doing damage while “Ferocious” chews up his legs and body with constant kicks.

Blackshear isn’t a sufficiently fast or skilled striker to capitalize on Basharat’s occasional defensive lapses, nor a sufficiently powerful takedown artist to make up for the fact that he’ll always be a step behind. In short, Basharat out-classes him from bell to bell.

Prediction: Basharat via unanimous decision

155 lbs.: Loik Radzhabov vs. Esteban Ribovics

Loik Radzhabov’s (16-4-1) first PFL tournament saw him fall in the finals to Natan Schulte, while his second ended in similarly heartbreaking fashion at the hands of Raush Manfio. He’s fought just once since that 2021 defeat, choking out Zach Zane in his Eagle FC debut.

“Jaguar Paw” steps in for Kamuela Kirk on around a week’s notice.

Esteban Ribovics (11-0) ended a 14-month layoff by knocking out Franco Aranda in 27 seconds to claim the Samurai Fight House Lightweight title. This led to an August 2022 opportunity on Contender Series, where he stopped Thomas Paull via 90-second, contract-winning knockout.

All of his wins have come inside the distance, six of them by knockout.

If Kirk was a stiff test, Radzhabov is a crucible. The Tajik veteran is far and away the best grappler Ribovics has faced in his career, a smothering force that seems perfectly designed to neutralize Ribovics’ high-octane striking offense. “El Gringo’s” takedown defense has been found wanting before, and I’m not convinced his kimura-focused bottom game can hold up at the highest level.

That said, Ribovics is definitely a live dog. Beyond the fact that Radzhabov’s had his share of cardio issues before, Ribovics’ 2:04 of cage time in the last three years means there’s no telling what sort of improvements he’s made to his wrestling. Still, Radzhabov is ridiculously durable and the more proven product, so I’ll lean his way.

Prediction: Radzhabov via split decision

Four more UFC 285 undercard bouts remain to preview and predict, including what promises to be Middleweight mayhem between Dricus Du Plessis and Derek Brunson. Same time tomorrow, Maniacs.

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 285 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:15 p.m. ET, then the remaining undercard on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, before the PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.

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