UFC 287 Clash: Burns Vs. Masvidal!

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight veterans Gilbert Burns and Jorge Masvidal will collide this weekend (Sat., April 8, 2023) at UFC 287 inside Miami-Dade Arena in Miami, Florida.

Since coming up short in his title bid opposite Kamaru Usman in February 2021, “Durinho” has struggled to really rebuild momentum towards a second shot. He’s still undoubtedly one of the best Welterweights in the world, but a close loss to Khamzat Chimaev and some time on the sidelines has left him in need of a big opportunity like this co-main event slot.

Conversely, Masvidal simply hasn’t won a fight in years. It deserves to be mentioned that his three losses come to two of the absolute best fighters of the current — previous? — Welterweight generation, but “Gamebred” quite simply has to get back in the win column if he’s going to make use of his star power in any meaningful way.

Let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for each man:

Gilbert Burns

Record: 21-5

Key Wins: Stephen Thompson (UFC 264), Tyron Woodley (UFC on ESPN 9), Demian Maia (UFC Fight Night 170), Gunnar Nelson (UFC Fight Night 160), Neil Magny (UFC 283), Alexey Kunchenko (UFC Fight Night 156), Alex Oliveira (UFC Fight Night 62)

Key Losses: Kamaru Usman (UFC 258), Khamzat Chimaev (UFC 273), Dan Hooker (UFC 226), Michel Prazeres (UFC Fight Night 95)

Keys to Victory: Burns jumped to Welterweight and immediately changed into a different fighter. He started hitting with much more power, and his wrestling became a far more significant threat. Lastly, his ability to push a hard pace leveled up as well.

Burns’ wrestling and jiu-jitsu skill can definitely play a major part in his success here, but I don’t think he has the pure wrestling talents of Covington or Usman to just grind through Masvidal. Unless “Gamebred” is shot, he’s historically a pretty excellent defensive wrestler, so it’s unlikely to be that straightforward.

Instead, Burns has to impose his physicality on Masvidal first. The Brazilian should be sticking hard jabs in Masvidal’s face and chest, as well as trying to punt the lead leg when it’s available. If Burns can land a few hard shots, Masvidal will be forced to respect his offense, and that goes a long way in moving him towards the fence.

From that positioning, Burns should find far more success in scoring the takedown and controlling Masvidal on the canvas.

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Jorge Masvidal

Record: 35-16

Key Wins: Ben Askren (UFC 239), Darren Till (UFC Fight Night 147), Nate Diaz (UFC 244), Donald Cerrone (UFC on FOX 23), James Krause (UFC 178)

Key Losses: Kamaru Usman (UFC 261, UFC 251), Colby Covington (UFC 272), Demian Maia (UFC 211), Stephen Thompson (UFC 217)

Keys to Victory: Masvidal has been a highly technical and skilled fighter for longer than most of us have been watching the sport. It wasn’t until he really found his power and upped the athleticism in his style in 2019 that Masvidal broke through and became a star, but “Gamebred” was excellent many years prior. He gets accused of journeyman status nowadays, but journeymen don’t challenge for UFC and Strikeforce belts.

Again, if Masvidal still has something left in the tank, this feels like a very winnable match up. He’s the far more technical striker, and his ability to really burst into offense and find huge moments seems to pair up well against Burns’ habit of getting stunned fairly often.

Cage position is key here. Masvidal’s odds of defending takedowns skyrockets in the open versus against the fence, so this really feels like a fight where he has to be the man pressuring. He’ll have to watch out for the overhand counter, but if Masvidal can establish his jab and stick Burns a few times, that will go a long way in forcing Burns to his back foot.

Given some time to work on the feet, Masvidal can find the holes in Burns’ defense and make him pay. He just has to ensure that the fight takes place in that realm to do so.

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Bottom Line

This is a must-win fight for each man.

At 36 years of age, Burns’ window to contend is not going to last for many more years. Now that Usman is no longer the champion, he’s once again a very viable contender, so it’s time to push the pedal through the floor one last time. A win here definitely pushes the Brazilian forward in a major way, but he’ll still likely require at least one more win against someone like Belal Muhammad or Shavkat Rakhmonov.

As for Masvidal, he’s mentioned that retirement is on the table if he comes up short here — not a bad decision for a 50-fight veteran who’s made his money. If he wins, however, Masvidal just might get that last title shot. The bad blood with Leon Edwards is worth its weight in gold so long as “Rocky” remains champion, and UFC would surely love to capitalize on such a booking before the moment disappears.

At UFC 287, Gilbert Burns and Jorge Masvidal will go to war in the co-main event. Which man has his hand raised?