Fighter on Fighter: Breaking Down Pavlovich!

Rising Heavyweight contender, Sergei Pavlovich, will face veteran wrestler, Curtis Blaydes, this Saturday (April 22, 2023) at UFC Vegas 71 inside UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.

I won’t beat around the bush here: Pavlovich is not an easy fighter to analyze. His entire UFC career plays more like a highlight reel than anything really worth analyzing, because the Russian pugilist is finding great success with the classic Heavyweight gameplan of hitting really damn hard. Consider this: His current five-fight win streak lasted less than 10 minutes total. Furthermore, he’s yet to really be challenged in terms of defensive grappling since his debut loss to Alistair Overeem five years ago.

Still, let’s review what we can and take a closer look at his skill set:

Striking

Pavlovich is a 255-pound Heavyweight with serious hand speed. Prior to getting knocked senseless by Pavlovich, Maurice Greene described Pavlovich’s game as “just a right hand” per the commentary, and he wasn’t exactly wrong: Pavlovich’s right might be the nastiest weapon in the Heavyweight division.

What’s really interesting about Pavlovich’s game is that he doesn’t rush things like one would assume from a man routinely scoring sub-60 second finishes. In fact, all of his recent fights have seen Pavlovich begin by advancing patiently behind the jab and some feints. It’s a stiff jab to be sure, and against Tai Tuivasa, Pavlovich did use a power jab to reset his stance after a right hand — that’s a nice boxing technique, and it dropped the Australian (GIF).

While jabbing and feinting, most Pavlovich foes try to kick his leg. The Russian actually adjusts to that nicely, either withdrawing his lead knee or stepping up the center with his right hand, which worked a treat against Maurice Greene.

Really though, Pavlovich is just looking to line up his right hand. Often, he throws his right hand as a lead, which upsets the usual rhythm of throwing it behind the jab he’s already established. Instead, Pavlovich just ducks his head off to the side and whips his right in the form of a hook/overhand (GIF).

Remember that patience we discussed? It lasts precisely until Pavlovich lands his first big right hand. As soon as that shot connects, he tends to go full bore towards the finish. He’ll alternate left and right swings, but much of the time, Pavlovich just wants to get close enough that alternating the clubbing right hook and right uppercut is a viable strategy. If his opponent is stuck on the fence absorbing such a barrage, he’s probably not surviving the situation.

Interestingly, Pavlovich plays the double threat uppercut/overhand game at distance too, which is far more unusual. Most notably, he stopped Shamil Abdurakhimov by level changing a bit then exploding forward with his rear hand uppercut (GIF). That’s a technique we’ve seen far smaller men like TJ Dillashaw utilize, but most Heavyweights are too slow and get creamed for trying it (see Junior dos Santos vs. Curtis Blaydes).

Here’s a fun stat that I’m like 85 percent sure is completely true: Pavlovich didn’t throw a single kick in his current five-fight win streak. Maybe I missed one, but I rewatched all those fights to prep this article and realized halfway through that quite literally ZERO kicks were being thrown.

Funny enough, Pavlovich did kick quite a bit in his Fight Nights Global title win. In that 25-minute battle, Pavlovich faced a Southpaw, and he landed some nice chopping low kicks across the inner thigh, as well as a few good high kicks hidden behind the jab or cross.

Wrestling

Pavlovich has a Greco-Roman wrestling background, but once more, you have to look beyond his UFC career to notice it. Offensively, his takedowns tend to be really straightforward. I’ve only seen the Russian athlete attempt double legs on the fence and score body lock tosses — classic strong man moves.

Similarly, Pavlovich’s wrestling defense is the combination of a solid sprawl and real strength in the clinch. Alistair Overeem managed to work around this with a sneaky trip, but most Heavyweights will be flummoxed by Pavlovich’s physicality and fundamentals.

This highlight sums it up pretty well on both sides of the equation:

Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

Pavlovich has never submitted anyone nor been submitted, and he’s yet to attempt a submission inside the Octagon. Maybe one of his random Russian fights from back in the day saw him attempt a kimura or something, but if that clip exists, I haven’t seen it. The only thing worth-noting that I noticed is he looked very uncomfortable on his back against Overeem, but that’s a true statement for a vast majority of the Heavyweight division.

Conclusion

Typically, fighters who rely purely on power and speed hit a ceiling … even at Heavyweight. Look back at Shane Carwin or a young Francis Ngannou — at some point, a more nuanced game becomes necessary. It remains to be seen if Pavlovich can break that trend, but Blaydes is a much more rounded challenge than any he’s faced since his debut loss.

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Andrew Richardson, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt, is a professional fighter who trains at Team Alpha Male in Sacramento, California. In addition to learning alongside world-class talent, Andrew has scouted opponents and developed winning strategies for several of the sport’s most elite fighters.

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