UFC 291 Odds, Under Dogs And Best Bets!

Get a detailed breakdown of the betting lines for UFC 291, which is set to hit Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah, this weekend (Sat., July 29, 2023), including best bets, underdogs, favorites and much more!

Two of the most entertaining fighters to ever live do battle once again this Saturday (July 29, 2023) when Dustin Poirier takes on Justin Gaethje atop the latest Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) pay-per-view (PPV) show. Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah, also hosts a clash of former champions in Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira, as well as Bobby Green vs. Tony Ferguson.

Eager to end July on a high note? Let’s make it happen …

What Went Wrong at UFC London?

Whew, things were going too well there for a second. Was kinda worried, to be honest.

Yanal Ashmouz

Chris Duncan looked markedly improved and Ashmouz was too gun-shy, even before his wrist got snapped like a twig.

Shauna Bannon

Two things: for one, Bruna Brasil’s lateral movement and counters were significantly more on-point than in her loss to Denies Gomes. For two, Bannon didn’t get comfortable until the third round, when she finally used the stiff jab and inside low kicks she needed to to consistently damage Brasil.

Daniel Barez

I said it would be a race to see if Barez could finish Jafel FIlho before falling apart. Alas, he couldn’t.

Jamal Pogues

He’s always struggled with low kicks, but I didn’t expect him to just flat-out quit after the first round. I also didn’t expect him to be ~20 pounds heavier than in his UFC debut, which should have been a red flag.

Molly McCann

I didn’t think Stoliarenko could take her down. That’s the long and short of it. Stoliarenko has never been a a competent wrestler, but dropping to 125 pounds seems to have been just the change she needed.

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

What Went Right?

Tom Aspinall, Makhmud Muradov, Fares Ziam and Joel Alvarez

Ziam definitely underwhelmed, but the others were as dominant as expected.

Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL/AFP via Getty Images

UFC 291 Odds For The Under Card:

Gabriel Bonfim (-320) vs. Trevin Giles (+265)

Beef up parlays with Bonfim. His hands are razor-sharp and his submissions are lethal, and though he still has some issues, Giles hasn’t impressed in a fight since 2020.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima (-200) vs. Derrick Lewis (+170)

I really do think Rogerio de Lima wins the majority of the time — he hits every bit as hard as Lewis, while offering a superior kicking game and enough wrestling skills to keep “The Black Beast” on his back. Problem is, he’s got cardio issues and a history of jaw-droppingly dumb decisions. I can’t really back Lewis, either, as he’s looked quite poor in his last two bouts. Skip it.

Roman Kopylov (-240) vs. Claudio Ribeiro (+195)

Hammer the Kopylov line. He’s a far better boxer than Ribeiro and gets stronger as the fight goes along. He’s also shown off an impressive ability to withstand damage, so it’s unlikely Ribeiro can blitz him out before the technique discrepancy becomes obvious.

Jake Matthews (-265) vs. Darrius Flowers (+225)

Put a little flyer on Flowers. He’s got great takedown defense and he hits like a truck, while Matthews is coming off a truly horrendous performance against the one-dimensional Matthew Semelsberger.

CJ Vergara (-160) vs. Vinicius Salvador (+130)

Definitely give me Salvador as the underdog. Vergara should be 1-3 in the Octagon and spent much of the fight he decisively won getting beaten to a pulp. Salvador’s built for the sort of slugfest that Vergara prefers, especially since Vergara doesn’t have the wrestling to neutralize “Fenomeno” The way VIctor Altamirano did.

Matthew Semelsberger (-205) vs. Uros Medic (+175)

Semelsberger lets me down fairly often, but he’s fighting a Lightweight slugger who’s stepping up on short notice. Even he can’t beef a matchup this favorable.

Miranda Maverick (-315) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (+245)

Cachoeira can’t wrestle. Even with all of her faults and recent struggles, I can’t pass up Maverick.

Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images

UFC 291 Odds For The Main Card:

Dustin Poirier (-150) vs. Justin Gaethje (+130)

Love both of these guys, wish them the best, but it’s gotta be Dustin. For all of Gaethje’s improvements, Poirier still takes a better punch and has a superior motor.

Jan Blachowicz (-125) vs. Alex Pereira (+105)

Loving the line on Blachowicz. As much of a monster as Pereira is, it’s worth remembering that the strongest takedown artist he’s fought was the hapless Andreas Michailidis. On top of that, Blachowicz is ludicrously tough; the only time he’s even been hurt in the Octagon was when he sprinted headlong into a Thiago Santos bomb in 2019.

Stephen Thompson (-125) vs. Michel Pereira (+105)

Skip it. Pereira’s gigantic for the weight and willing to wrestle, but can fade down the stretch, while Thompson’s takedown defense appears to be waning.

Bobby Green (-410) vs. Tony Ferguson (+310)

I mean, you kinda have to go with Green, don’t you? Ferguson’s a shell of his former self. It’s just a question of whether that’s enough to justify betting on one-to-four odds.

Kevin Holland (-145) vs. Michael Chiesa (+125)

Put down a bit on Chiesa as the underdog. “Maverick” can still grind like nobody’s business and Holland, while unquestionably more fearsome at 170 than at 185, still hasn’t proven he can deal with a persistent takedown artist.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

UFC 291 Best Bets:

• Single bet — Vinicius Salvador: Bet $40 to make $52
• Single bet — Darrius Flowers: Bet $30 to make $67.50
• Single bet — Dustin Poirier: Bet $60 to make $40
• Parlay — Miranda Maverick and Michael Chiesa: Bet $30 to make $58.80
• Parlay — Gabriel Bonfim and Jan Blachowicz: Bet $50 to make $68
• Parlay — Roman Kopylov and Matthew Semelsberger: Bet $50 to make $55

This is one of combat sports’ best weeks in ages, and UFC 291 is a big part of that. Don’t miss it. See you Saturday, Maniacs.

Initial Investment For 2023: $600
April Bailout: $400
Current Total: $363.34

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 291 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. ET, then the remaining undercard on ESPN/ESPN+/ABC at 8 p.m. ET, before the PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 291: “Poirier vs. Gaethje 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.