UFC Vegas 80: ‘Dawson Vs Green’ Predictions

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Vegas 80 mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., Oct. 7, 2023) on ESPN+ from inside the promotion’s APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, featuring a lightweight main event between Top 10 title hopeful Grant Dawson and veteran bruiser Bobby Green, a five-round headliner with major title implications for late 2023 and beyond.

Before we dive into the main and co-main event, which includes the 185-pound scrap between middleweight maulers Joe Pyfer and Abdul Razak Alhassan, check out Patrick Stumberg’s breakdowns for the UFC Vegas 80 preliminary card by clicking here and here. For the latest “Dawson vs. Green” odds and betting props courtesy of our fiscal friends over at Draft Kings go here. For the rest of the UFC Vegas 80 main card predictions click here.

155 lbs.: Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green

Grant “KGD” Dawson

Record: 20-1-1 | Age: 29 | Betting line: -445
Wins: 4 KO/TKO, 13 SUB, 3 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 5’10“ | Reach: 72” | Stance: Switch
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 2.99 | Striking accuracy: 51%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.22 | Striking Defense: 46%
Takedown Average: 3.70 (36% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 40%
Current Ranking: No. 10 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Damir Ismagulov

“King” Bobby Green

Record: 30-14-1, 1 NC | Age: 37 | Betting line: +310
Wins: 10 KO/TKO, 9 SUB, 11 DEC | Losses: 4 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 8 DEC
Height: 5’10“ | Reach: 71” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 6.14 | Striking accuracy: 52%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.67 | Striking Defense: 62%
Takedown Average: 1.21 (37% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 74%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Submission win over Tony Ferguson

Grant Dawson has been fighting under the UFC banner for six years and to say he’s been flying under the radar is an understatement, since opponent Bobby Green — according to his comments at the UFC Vegas 80 media day — had no idea who “KGD” was when matchmakers called him to offer the fight. Dawson cut his teeth on Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in summer 2017, earning his UFC contract with a second-round submission victory over Adrian Diaz. In the years that followed, the American Top Team (ATT) product racked up eight wins sandwiched around a majority draw against Ricky Glenn at UFC Vegas 41. Dawson has outwrestled his opponents 30-3 and plans to do likewise against Green. Some fans (and opponents) have dismissed “KGD” as another boring wrestler, but it’s worth pointing out that Dawson has five finishes and two post-fight performance bonuses — and zero losses in UFC — so he must be doing something right.

“We all know what Bobby is going to try and do. He’s going to come out and try and knock me out,” Dawson told Just Scrap Radio. “We all know what I’m going to try and do, I’m going to try and take him down and submit him or groud-and-pound him. It really comes down to who implements their game better.”

The unranked Green turned 37 last month and is well into double digits in the loss column. That said, “King” proved himself worthy of a crown with a submission victory over former interim champion Tony Ferguson at UFC 291. It’s hard to get excited about that performance since the general consensus is that “El Cucuy” is washed and has been for quite some time, a theory that will either be proven right or completely debunked when Ferguson battles Paddy Pimblett at UFC 296. Before that bonus-winning finish, Green ended a two-fight losing streak — getting stopped in both losses — by registering a No Contest against Jared Gordon after slamming heads. Regardless of his recent run, one thing you can always count on from Green is an action-packed fight, so expect the crafty veteran to bring the heat in between takedown attempts.

“Even though sometimes he got some finishes, so it’s like, ‘Cool, yeah.’ But it’s a snorefest. So it’s going to be a real test for me is to moreso make a boring guy exciting. That’s the real fight,” Green said at the UFC Vegas 80 media day. “Those guys, they just want to win. They’re not interested in doing anything bigger than that. All he can do is do his job and be him. He’s done that so far, and it’s not been working.”

A fighter with Green’s experience, and more importantly his power, can never be counted out. He’s also got an underrated wrestling game that could give “KGD” the fits. For me, this fight is all about Dawson’s conditioning. If he can spam takedowns for all five rounds and keep Green at bay, he’ll cruise to a sweep on the judges’ scorecards. If he starts to fade somewhere in the third round, gassed from his relentless pace, Green is going to take over the fight and knock him out. Dawson by points is probably the safer pick.

Prediction: Dawson def. Green by unanimous decision

185 lbs.: Joe Pyfer vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan

Joe “Bodybagz” Pyfer

Record: 11-2 | Age: 27 | Betting line: -455
Wins: 8 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 1 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 6’2“ | Reach: 75” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.63 | Striking accuracy: 46%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.64 | Striking Defense: 54%
Takedown Average: 1.65 (100% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 50%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Technical knockout win over Gerald Meerschaert

Abdul Razak “Judo Thunder” Alhassan

Record: 12-5 | Age: 38 | Betting line: +350
Wins: 12 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 4 DEC
Height: 5’10“ | Reach: 73” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.54 | Striking accuracy: 48%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.02 | Striking Defense: 55%
Takedown Average: 0.97 (38% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 52%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Knockout win over Claudio Ribeiro

Joe Pyfer made his way into UFC after two fights on Dana White’s “Contender Series.” The first occurred in Aug. 2020, when the Pennsylvanian suffered a serious elbow injury and lost by way of technical knockout. The second took place roughly two years later, when Pyfer obliterated Osman Diaz to win the only contract of the night, prompting White to tell every UFC hopeful around the world, “Be Joe Pyfer.” The 27 year-old “Bodybagz” would validate those words with consecutive first-round knockout victories over Alen Amedovski and Gerald Meerschaert, the former of which earned Pyfer a “Performance of the Night” bonus. We haven’t see much from the Team Balance bruiser outside of his hands and we probably won’t until they stop winning fights. With that in mind, plan to see “Bodybagz” going for broke early and often against the equally aggressive Abdul Razak Alhassan, who knows a thing or two about shutting off the lights.

“I’m not intimidated,” Pyfer said at the UFC Vegas 80 media day. “If this guy thinks he’s going to walk me down and throw bombs — and they’re all hooks for that matter — you’re going to get caught, motherf*cker. You’re going to get caught. I will catch you and I got bigger power than this man. Let’s not forget that he used to be at 170 and that’s where his knockouts were. So he’s dangerous. He’s a powerful man and I respect him. I trained my ass off because I respect him. I don’t want to get knocked the f*ck out. I’m telling you right now, this man’s only chance is to knock me out. He has that ability.”

Alhassan has been competing inside the Octagon for nearly seven years but remains unranked at 185 pounds, which should give you an idea of his success on the big stage. The former welterweight has one-punch knockout power (just ask Niko Price) but competing at middleweight will give him a considerable disadvantage in both height (4”) and reach (2”). It’s also hard to pick a 38 year-old slugger who is 5-5 across his last 10, particularly when he’s giving up decision losses to fighters lurking near the bottom half of the division, like Mounir Lazzez and Jacob Malkoun, among others. His best chance of winning this fight is to land first. Outside of that, I think Pyfer wins all the striking exchanges, including the one that puts “Judo Thunder” to sleep.

Prediction: Pyfer def. Alhassan by knockout

Don’t forget to check out the rest of the UFC Vegas 80 main card predictions RIGHT HERE.

MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 80 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ preliminary card bouts at 4 p.m. ET, followed by the ESPN+ main card start time at 7 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 80 news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here. For the updated and finalized “Dawson vs. Green” fight card and ESPN+ line up click here.