Predictions! UFC Vegas 81 ‘Prelims’ Preview – Pt. 2

Having re-invigorated his career with a highlight-reel finish of Billy Quarantillo, Edson Barboza looks to make it two straight when he headlines UFC Vegas 81 opposite Sodiq Yusuff. The card also sees Jennifer Maia meet Viviane Araujo and Michel Pereira make his UFC Middleweight debut opposite late replacement Andre Petroski.

Three Prelims to go; let’s not dilly-dally …

145 lbs.: Darren Elkins (28-11) vs. TJ Brown (17-10)

An uninspiring 1-1 UFC start saw “The Damage” beat Duane Ludwig via ankle injury and tap to a Charles Oliveira armbar in less than 1:30 combined, but he quickly caught fire with a 13-3 run over the next eight years. He now sits at 3-6 in his last nine, most recently dropping a decision to Jonathan Pearce in December 2022. He stands an inch taller than “Downtown” but gives up an inch of reach.

A slick arm triangle of Dylan Lockard on the Contender Series earned Brown his fourth straight finish and a UFC contract. He enters the cage this Saturday 3-4 in the world’s largest fight promotion, including a submission loss to Bill Algeo last time out. 10 of his 13 pro finishes have come by submission.

Brown has enough going his way that installing him as the favorite, as the bookies did, isn’t unreasonable. He’s got less mileage on him than Elkins and a far superior striking game that could very feasibly put the shopworn veteran down for the count. The way I see it, though, this is a fight between someone who’s defined by finding ways to win and someone who’s defined by finding ways to lose.

We know Elkins can power through adversity like nobody’s business, while Brown is notoriously prone to falling apart even in winnable matchups. Even if Brown does have the standup to shred Elkins the way Cub Swanson did, he’s just as liable to repeatedly bumble his way into bottom position. Brown’s fragility, inconsistency, and woeful takedown defense give Elkins all the tools he needs to grind out another upset win.

Prediction: Elkins via unanimous decision

135 lbs.: Irina Alekseeva (5-1) vs. Melissa Dixon (5-0)

16 months after winning her Bellator debut, “Russian Ronda” stepped into the Octagon to face Stephanie Egger. Though she missed weight by four pounds, she emerged victorious thanks to a first-round rolling kneebar. She is the taller woman by an inch.

“No Mess Mullins” enjoyed a nine-fight amateur career before scoring a first-round finish in her 2021 pro debut. Then came a four-fight, four-win 2022, capped off by a comeback TKO of then-unbeaten Darya Zheleznyakova. Three of her pro wins and all five of her amateur wins have come via strikes.

In a battle of eager sluggers with strong grappling backgrounds, I favor Dixon. Her takedown defense was on point against another solid judoka in Rizlen Zouak, and though she’s alarmingly hittable, she’s durable enough and Alekseeva sloppy enough on the feet that she shouldn’t get in too much trouble before getting her wrestling going.

If Alekseeva had actual power, she’d have a shot of clipping Dixon, but the fact that the much sharper Zheleznyakova couldn’t put Dixon away suggests that Alekseeva can’t, either. Dixon’s top control carries her to a debut victory.

Prediction: Dixon via unanimous decision

135 lbs.: Chris Gutierrez (19-4-2) vs. Alatengheili (16-8-2)

Undaunted by a loss to Raoni Barcelos in his late-notice UFC debut, Gutierrez worked his way into Bantamweight contention with an eight-fight unbeaten streak. His efforts made him a favorite over Pedro Munhoz in April 2023, only for “The Young Punisher” to outstrike “El Guapo” en route to a clean sweep on the scorecards. He steps in for Rani Yahya on short notice, having previously been slated to face Montel Jackson last Saturday.

“The Mongolian Knight” started his UFC run with back-to-back wins over Danaa Batgerel and Ryan Benoit, but hit an 0-1-1 rut thanks to Casey Kenney and Gustavo Lopez. Undeterred, he quickly scored a sub-minute knockout of Kevin Croom and a decision win over Chad Anheliger. He fights for the first time in 13 months.

It’s hard to overstate how much more favorable a matchup this is for Gutierrez. Jackson is a colossal, heavy-handed slugger with the reach and wrestling skills to punish Gutierrez’s low kicks. Alatengheili has a bomb of a right hand and decent wrestling of his own, but he’s painfully passive in the cage; the 49 significant strikes he landed on Anheliger were the most of his UFC career.

Though Alatengheili has the power to spark Gutierrez, who’s had issues with aggressive punchers before, I can’t trust him to keep his foot on the gas. He’ll give Gutierrez far more room to operate than Jackson would have, which is a death sentence against an extremely adept kicker. The inordinate toughness Alatengheili showed against Kenney keeps him on his feet for 15 minutes as Gutierrez takes him apart with low kicks.

Prediction: Gutierrez via unanimous decision

The main event and Jonathan Martinez vs Adrian Yanez are enough to carry this card; the rest is just icing on the cake. See you Saturday, Maniacs.

Current Prediction Record for 2023: 141-87-1 (3 NC)