UFC 294 Predictions, Preview, And Analysis

UFC 294 is finally here … and it looks a little different than we first thought it would.

Reigning 155-pound kingpin Islam Makhachev will defend his lightweight title against featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski in the pay-per-view (PPV) main event, thanks to a late injury suffered by former division titleholder Charles Oliveira.

I guess King Kong couldn’t make weight.

In the Oct. 21 co-main event, going down inside Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE, undefeated middleweight sensation Khamzat Chimaev will also fight a short-notice opponent as ex-welterweight champion Kamaru Usman steps in for the elbow’d Paulo Costa.

The show must (and will) go on … via ESPN+ digital network.

Before we break down the five-fight PPV main card, which also features a light heavyweight bang-a-thon pitting Russian gladiator Magomed Ankalaev against Brazilian bruiser Johnny Walker, be sure to take a closer look at our comprehensive preview and predictions for this weekend’s preliminary undercard action on ESPN+ by clicking here and here. The latest UFC 294 odds and a complete betting guide for the entire “Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2” PPV lineup can be located here.

Let’s take a look at what the main card has in store for us this weekend in Abu Dhabi.

155 lbs.: UFC Lightweight Champion Islam Makhachev (24-1) vs. UFC Featherweight Champion Alexander “The Great” Volkanovski (26-2)

Reigning featherweight titleholder Alexander Volkanovski was already one of the greatest champions in UFC history, based on his performances alone, but taking a short-notice “champ-champ” fight with his legacy on the line — against a fighter who already defeated him — really cements his place in the halls of Valhalla. Particularly in an era when most high-profile (and high-paid) fighters carefully pick and choose their paths, sidestepping any potential landmines in the interest of protecting their brand. There shouldn’t be any concerns about his strength and conditioning because Volkanovski lives the champion’s life; meaning, he trains every day and maintains an athlete’s diet even when not in camp. He’s also promising to be more dangerous than ever, having entered this fight without the wear-and-tear of training camp. That makes me wonder if fighters have it backwards and should be in camp when they’re not booked and stop camp when the contract is signed, coming in fresh as a daisy.

Sound stupid? It would have saved this fighter from pulling out.

You can argue that Islam Makhachev has spent the last six weeks training for someone else, which is analogous to Volkanovski not training for anyone specific, though I don’t think it matters for either fighter. No gameplan can substitute for what they’ve already experienced: 25-minutes of bloody battle at the highest possible level and no question both combatants left that UFC 284 showdown — which (barely) ended in favor of Makhachev — thinking about all the errors they would correct if they ever got the chance to run it back. Now they will and part of me wonders how long it will take for Dan Hooker to stir up a new round of drama after the IV scandal at UFC 284. Hopefully “Hangman” treads lightly since they are competing in enemy territory and may not have the same latitude afforded in Perth.

I am of the opinion that we saw the best versions of both fighters when they first went head-to-head in their “Fight of the Night” war last February and Makhachev prevailed, giving me no reason to expect a different outcome the second time around. Once again, this boils down to the size advantage for the Dagestani wrestler, who was 4-for-9 in takedown attempts against 0-for-4 for Volkanovski. The high-octane Aussie was the busier striker but Makhachev was more accurate (and more economic) with his punches. If you’re a fan of “The Great” then you know he’s been promising to go for broke this weekend, which means taking risks and looking for the finish early and often. I think that’s his only play, considering he’s “in shape” but not necessarily in “fighting shape” — a marked difference when facing a heavier wrestler across five grueling rounds. His aggressive (some might say reckless) attack could lead to an incredible knockout victory for the hall-of-fame featherweight, though I believe the more likely scenario is that it leaves Volkanovski in a precarious position that allows Makhachev to finish the fight. Think Round 3 at UFC 266 — without the escape hatch.

Prediction: Makhachev def. Volkanovski by submission

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185 lbs.: Khamzat “Borz” Chimaev (12-0) vs. Kamaru “Nigerian Nightmare” Usman (20-3)

This is a difficult fight to predict because there are so many unknowns, despite the lopsided odds. At the time of this writing, Khamzat Chimaev was a -300 betting favorite, which sounds a little high when you consider “Borz” has not competed in over a year and will go up against one of the greatest welterweight champions in the history of MMA. There are several reasons to feel pessimistic about “The Nigerian Nightmare’s” chances, starting with his age. Usman is seven years older than Chimaev and has a lot of miles on those tires, which may have contributed to his losing performance against Leon Edwards at UFC 286 last March. We’ve also never seen Usman compete at middleweight, so he may be stronger and faster or — without the cardio-crazy camp to make 170 pounds — slower and more lethargic. We’re flying blind here but then again, so is Chimaev.

The former Swede has certainly done an admirable job of maintaining his mystique in the absence of demonstrable results. Am I supposed to break out the good champagne for a 200-pound submission victory over Kevin Holland, whose takedown defense is so bad he was sponsored by Jenga? Prior to that, Chimaev barely scraped by Gilbert Burns in what was unquestionably a wildly entertaining fight — but also a sloppy, reckless performance that had about as much technique as that viral Waffle House brawl back in January. Sorry folks, I’m not boarding the Chimaev Choo-Choo Train just yet. His wrestling has proven to be a formidable weapon … against non wrestlers and Usman — an NCAA Division II national champion at 174 pounds — holds the UFC record for takedown defense across all weight classes. Let’s also point out that Usman has a longer reach than Chimaev and could use his jab to keep “Borz” at bay.

I know all the cool kids are riding and dying with Chimaev but I think this is a tricky matchup for him. Usman is coming off the couch, but he only needs to win two of three rounds. I also don’t want to just discount his eight years of experience competing at the highest level. If Usman can repel takedowns from Colby Covington, an NCAA All American and two-time Pac-10 Conference champion at 174 pounds, he can certainly make this a difficult night for Chimaev. And if “Borz” can’t get (or doesn’t want) the takedowns, are we going to make an argument for his hands after what we saw against Burns? If you want to take Chimaev because he knocked out Gerald Meerschaert, who has the dynamic head movement of one of those Viking Meerschaum pipes, then you might be in for a shock on Saturday night.

Prediction: Usman def. Chimaev by unanimous decision

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205 lbs.: Magomed Ankalaev (17-1-1) vs. Johnny Walker (21-7)

Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker are completely different fighters, stylistically speaking, but their UFC trajectories have been eerily similar after making their respective debuts in 2018.

Ankalaev stumbled out of the gate, getting submitted by Paul Craig at UFC London before rattling off five straight wins, three of which scored the Russian striker $50,000 performance bonuses. Then his next five bouts resulted in three forgettable decisions and one butt-ugly draw opposite former 205-pound titleholder Jan Blachowicz, a fight so bad it caused UFC CEO Dana White to “zone out” somewhere in round three. What happened to the bonus-winning bruiser that had light heavyweights running for cover? Perhaps it was the step up in competition or maybe Ankalaev was struggling to stay dialed in. Either way, he went from a being a lock for the next 205-pound title shot to fighting a hot-and-cold opponent ranked five spots below him in the official light heavyweight rankings.

Like Ankalaev, the 31 year-old Walker jumped out to a red-hot start, bagging three straight wins and three straight performance bonuses. His highlight reel was impressive enough to keep then-champion Jon Jones looking over his shoulder. Then came a brutal knockout loss to Corey Anderson, followed by a couple of stinkers opposite Nikita Krylov and Thiago Santos. Getting stopped by Jamahal Hill did more than just eliminate him from the 205-pound title chase, it also changed his style of fighting — which some may argue was for the worse — but you can’t argue with the results. After his “Sweet Dreams” nap, the Brazilian is 3-0 with two finishes and back in the division Top 10, though I don’t think anyone will be nominating his Anthony Smith fight for the UFC hall of fame.

Walker now fights like Ankalaev: measured, patient, technical … but the Russian does it better, which is why the Brazilian needs to channel the Johnny Walker of 2019, complete with spinning back fists, jumping knees, flying elbows; anything and everything to keep Ankalaev off rhythm and scrambling to adjust. If not, Ankalaev will out-strike him from bell-to-bell, take him down at will, and beat him up on the ground. Unless Ankalaev has suffered a mid-career collapse, it’s hard to pick against him. Outside of the height and reach, he’s the superior fighter in just about every category.

Prediction: Ankalaev def. Walker by technical knockout

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185 lbs.: Ikram Aliskerov (14-1) vs. Warlley Alves (14-6)

With all the drama surrounding UFC 294 over the last week, which includes the Charles Oliveira head wound and the Paulo Costa elbow of doom, a lot of fans missed the announcement that Nassourdine Imavov was yanked from the Oct. 21 lineup after failing to secure a visa for his flight to Abu Dhabi. Stepping up on short notice is longtime welterweight veteran Warlley Alves, who will skip the weight cut and face Ikram Aliskerov at 185 pounds. That’s pretty much the only thing he’s got going for him right now, which sounds kinda harsh, but we can’t escape the facts.

Alves made a name for himself by winning the glass trophy on Season 3 of The Ultimate Fighter: “Brazil” back in early 2014, the same season responsible for producing Paulo Costa and Antonio Carlos Jr., among others. In the years that followed, Alves put together an unremarkable record of 7-6 — losing four of his last six — and missed two years of competition (2020 and 2022) due to injury, severe enough to require surgery. Upon his 2023 return, Alves picked up where he left off in 2021: the loss column. Now he’s tasked with securing a big win on just a week’s notice against a dangerous Russian up-and-comer.

The jury is still out when it comes to the future of Aliskerov, 30, but it’s hard to not be impressed by what we’ve seen thus far. The Dagestani bruiser submitted Mario Filipe de Sousa on Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in late 2022, then followed that up by starching Phil Hawes at UFC 288 last May. His only defeat in more than a decade of competition is a knockout loss to Khamzat Chimaev, who also competes at UFC 294, which becomes more forgivable with time (because “Borz” keeps winning). This will be a tough fight for Aliskerov because Alves is well rounded and experienced against some of the best in the world, including UFC 294 co-headliner Kamaru Usman.

My concern here is that Alves, aside from conditioning issues, is not going to make for a large middleweight, giving up both height and reach to the longer southpaw. In addition, the Brazilian remains unranked at 170 pounds, which should tell you where he fits into the current MMA landscape. Unless Aliskerov does something stupid, or lets Alves get too close on the inside (his power is not to be taken lightly), this should be a fairly one-sided rout.

Prediction: Aliskerov def. Alves by technical knockout

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135 lbs.: Said Nurmagomedov (17-3) vs. Muin “Tajik” Gafurov (18-5)

Said Nurmagomedov, who is not related to former UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov (despite forum shitposters insisting otherwise), is looking to rebound from just the second loss of his UFC career and third overall. The 31 year-old bantamweight was defeated by Jonathan Martinez at UFC Las Vegas back in March and considering what the red-hot “Dragon” did to Adrian Yanez at UFC Vegas 81 last weekend in “Sin City,” Nurmagomedov may have gotten off lucky. Prior to that, the Dagestani standout was the winner of four straight with three stoppages and one $50,000 performance bonus. He’s not the wrestling powerhouse you would expect from the Akhmat Fight Team and that’s not a bad thing, based on what we’ve seen from him inside the cage since making his Octagon debut back in summer 2018.

There’s not a lot of great things I can say about Muin Gafurov. “Tajik” was mediocre in ONE Championship (3-3 overall) after racking up a string of victories over international opponents you never heard of and don’t care about, like the 7-13 Tao Zhou, who is currently on an eight-fight losing streak. Gafurov was able to secure a spot on the 2021 season of Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in 2021 but fell to Chad Anheliger by way of split decision. “Tajik” would later be called back for UFC Vegas 74 and once again, came up short on the judges’ scorecards. I’m not sure what Gafurov has done to warrant a spot on a PPV main card, unless matchmakers wanted cannon fodder for Nurmagomedov (catering to local fans), but I would imagine a loss here is the last we’ll see of the Tunisian for the immediate future, at least inside the Octagon.

I can’t really make a case for the upset because Gafurov has zero Octagon wins and he’s facing a proven finisher with a 6-2 record in UFC. Honestly, I would be shocked if this fight saw a second round, which is probably why it was booked to open tomorrow night’s main card.

Prediction: Nurmagomedov def. Gafurov by technical knockout

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MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 294 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches at 10 a.m. ET, followed by the UFC 294 PPV main card start time at 2 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 294: “Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here. For the complete UFC 294 fight card and PPV lineup click here.