UFC 295 Clash: Lopes Vs. Sabatini!

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Featherweight grapplers Diego Lopes and Pat Sabatini will throw down this weekend (Sat., Nov. 11, 2023) at UFC 295 inside Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York.

Lopes is one of the most fun roster additions of 2023. He debuted on extremely short-notice against the wildly talented Movsar Evloev, giving the top-ranked Featherweight hell despite the circumstances. In his sophomore performance, a 98-second submission win proved him more than a flash in the pan.

Sabatini doesn’t quite have the flash of his opponent, but a 5-1 UFC record is nothing to scoff at! The Pennsylvanian has a technical wrestling game thats hard to stop, and his jiu-jitsu has more than held up when put to the test.

Let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for each man:

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Diego Lopes

Record: 22-6

Key Wins: Gavin Tucker (UFC Nashville), Rony Jason (Lux Fight League 4), Marco Beltran (Lux Fight League 7)

Key Losses: Movsar Evloev (UFC 288), Joanderson Brito (Contenders Series 2021)

Keys To Victory: Lopes is an offense-first fighter. His comfort on the canvas allows him to get really aggressive in the stand up, which is why he’s finished all but two of his victories before the final bell. The jiu-jitsu black belt is also the head grappling coach at Lobo Gym.

Despite his slick guard work, I’d like to see Lopes put at least a bit of effort in stopping the shot here. Sabatini’s top position grappling is very slick, and regardless of Lopes’ skill on the bottom, it’s a difficult to battle to win.

On the feet, however? Lopes seems far, far more dangerous. If he can push the pace on Sabatini without exposing his hips too much, he’ll force Sabatini to start taking shots from his back foot. That’s not easy to do, and for a grappler as skilled as Lopes, a bad shot can provide huge opportunities to catch the neck or simply reverse.

Sabatini’s sole UFC loss came via an aggressive blitz on the feet, and that seems like a result Lopes can recreate.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Pat Sabatini

Record: 18-4

Key Wins: Jamall Emmers (UFC Vegas 35), Lucas Almeida (UFC Vegas 75), TJ Laramie (UFC Vegas 51)

Key Losses: Damon Jackson (UFC Vegas 60)

Keys To Victory: Sabatini is a perfectly capable striker, but it’s clear that the floor is his wheelhouse. He’s a very solid chain wrestler, and once he drags his foe to the floor, his top game is rock solid. He’s quite good at advancing his position, forcing his foe into unpleasant spots where they must take strikes or risk giving up the neck.

Seeing as I don’t think the stand up exchanges are likely to go well for Sabatini, he’s going to have to brave the waters of Lopes’ guard. He definitely has the wrestling to get his opponent down, but that’s where things get interesting.

Being on top is almost always better in MMA. Sabatini will have to keep his elbows tight to his sides and mind his posture, but if he’s on top and landing the occasional elbow, he’s winning on the scorecards. Better yet, Lopes’ offense requires him to open his guard. That means there’s opportunity to pass, and we could see Sabatini neutralize a lot of Lopes’ creative offense simply by stepping over into half guard.

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Bottom Line

Both men are knocking on the door of a Top 15 ranking.

That’s a bold statement for Lopes given his relative lack of UFC experience, but would anyone really argue? Tucker and Sabatini would be quality wins, and he already proved himself in a big way against Evloev. Ranking or not, a win here would really solidify Lopes as a future player at Featherweight.

As for Sabatini, he’s been mostly excellent in the Octagon, Jackson upset loss aside. This is a step up in competition for him, however, and it’ll be interesting to see how his wrestling stacks up against a more top-tier opponent. If he can still implement his usual game plan, he just might be a threat to ranked opposition as well.

At UFC 294, Diego Lopes and Pat Sabatini will open the main card. Which man does so with a victory?

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