Predictions! UFC 295 Early ‘Prelims’ Preview – Pt. 1

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is bringing more “Prelims” fights to ESPN+ this weekend (Sat., Nov. 11, 2023) when UFC 295: “Prochazka vs. Pereira” storms Madison Square Garden in New York City. MMAmania.com’s Patrick Stumberg kicks off the UFC 295 “Prelims” party with the first installment of a two-part undercard preview series below.

With Heavyweight champion Jon Jones out of commission and Stipe Miocic disinterested in any other fight, Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka get top billing at UFC 295 this Saturday (Nov. 11, 2023) inside Madison Square Garden in New York City with top-ranked Heavyweight contenders, Sergei Pavlovich (No. 2) and Tom Aspinall (No. 4) stepping in to battle it out for the interim title.

UFC 295’s pay-per-view (PPV) card also sees Jessica Andrade look to end a career-worst skid at Mackenzie Dern’s expense and Pat Sabatini face Diego Lopes in a battle of ultra-dynamic Featherweight grapplers.

The schedule features eight “Prelims” undercard bouts at time of writing, all on ESPN+ with the latter batch also available on ESPN News. Let’s check out the first few …

155 lbs.: Jared Gordon vs. Mark Madsen

Jared Gordon (19-6) went from suffering three knockout losses in four fights to winning three straight, most notably a split decision over Joe Solecki. He now finds himself 1-2 (1 NC) in his last four thanks to a robbery loss to Paddy Pimblett and a clash of heads in his April 2023 bout with Bobby Green.

He gives up four inches of reach to Madsen despite standing one inch taller.

Mark Madsen (12-1) battled his way to a perfect (4-0) UFC start highlighted by decisions over Clay Guida and Vinc Pichel. Then came Grant Dawson, who choked out the Danish veteran midway through the third round.

This marks the first bout for “The Olympian” in almost exactly one year.

The plan for Gordon is simple: survive the first round, punish Madsen when his gas tank and legs start failing him, and don’t get surprised by an out-of-nowhere takedown in the third like Pichel did. The first two should be simple enough, as we saw when Gordon steadily bulldozed another strong grappler in Leonardo Santos, so the drama comes in whether Gordon can shut down a gassing Madsen’s takedowns and/or get off of his back.

Gordon got overwhelmed by the aforementioned Dawson, raising some questions as to whether he can handle a physically superior grappler, but Madsen’s poor gas tank is too big a weakness to overlook. In the end, attrition carries Gordon to victory in the last two rounds.

Prediction: Gordon via unanimous decision

135 lbs.: John Castaneda vs. Kyung Ho Kang

Three years after winning on but failing to graduate from Contender Series, John Castaneda (20-6) fell short in his UFC debut against Nathaniel Wood. “Sexy Mexi” is 3-1 since, picking up solid victories over Miles Johns and Muin Gafurov.

He’s knocked out and submitted seven foes apiece.

Despite long stretches of inactivity — including a three-year stint of mandatory military service and a 2.5-year layoff that made him miss all of 2020 — Kyung Ho Kang (19-9) sits at 8-3 (1 NC) in the Octagon. His current 5-1 run most recently saw him choke out Cristian Quinonez in June 2023.

He boasts a three-inch height advantage and a two-inch reach advantage.

I’ll admit to some favoritism towards Kang ever since I first saw his beautiful grappling more than a decade ago. I’ll also admit to underestimating Castaneda, who’s improved considerably since his 1-3 skid. Just keep that in mind as I explain how Kang will win.

Kang has a clear edge on the ground, sporting very good wrestling and excellent top control. Though Castaneda showed off strong takedown defense against Gafurov, Kim is a far more technical striker than “Tajik” which should go a long way towards opening up his wrestling. On top of that, he’s got noteworthy height and reach advantages, plus enough striking skills to beat a dangerous slugger in Danaa Batgerel. Kang will make it difficult for himself as always, but he’s skilled enough to edge out another narrow decision.

Prediction: Kang via split decision

125 lbs.: Joshua Van vs. Kevin Borjas

Joshua Van (8-1) capped off his two-year run in Fury FC by choking out Cleveland McLean to claim its Flyweight title. His efforts earned him a Contender Series berth that turned into a short-notice UFC debut against Zhalgas Zhumagulov, whom Van out-slugged in his first professional trip to the judges.

“The Fearless” sports five knockouts among his seven pro finishes.

The seventh bout under the Inka FC banner saw Kevin Borjas (9-1) stop Tiao Calixto for the Flyweight title. “El Gallo Negro” was slated to face Van on Contender Series, but instead boxed up late replacement Victor Dias to claim a contract in his first decision victory as a professional.

He sports a three-inch reach advantage over Van.

I’ll be shocked if this doesn’t produce at least one “of the Night” bonus. Not only are both mean fearsome, aggressive strikers, but they also have complementary strengths and weaknesses, with Van boasting superior versatility and technique while Borjas packs the heavier hands. All signs point them colliding in the center and trading heat until they’re pulled apart or someone goes to sleep.

I’ve got Van by a much slimmer margin than the bookies do. Beyond having the stronger body of work and more weapons in his arsenal, he’s more composed than Borjas, which should carry him through the inevitable firefights. Borjas has a real chance of sleeping him, especially if he catches Van leaning back with his signature straight right, but expect Van’s technical edge to carry the day in a barnburner.

Prediction: Van via unanimous decision

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

145 lbs.: Dennis Buzukja vs. Jamall Emmers

Dennis Buzukja (11-3) bounced back from his unsuccessful Contender Series bid by winning seven straight, including a decision over Kaleio Romero on his return to the promotion. “The Great” finally made his first UFC walk after stepping up at the eleventh-hour to battle Sean Woodson, who out-classed Buzukja to claim a unanimous decision.

He’s knocked out four opponents and submitted one other.

After falling short against Thiago Moises in a bid for RFA gold, Jamall Emmers (19-7) put together an 8-1 run, beating Cory Sandhagen and Jay Cuccinello along the way while falling to Julian Erosa on the Contender Series. He now finds himself 2-3 in the Octagon thanks to controversial losses to Giga Chikadze and Jack Jenkins alongside a comeback submission defeat to Pat Sabatini.

He stands one inch taller than Buzukja and sports a 3.5-inch reach advantage.

You really have to feel for Emmers. Every single member of the mixed martial arts (MMA) media had him winning the Jenkins fight and he had Sabatini dead to rights before inexplicably attacking a leg lock. That said, he should win this easily barring any further shenanigans.

Though Buzukja is as game as anyone in the sport, this seems like a double case of deja vu that’s very much not in his favor. We just saw Emmers seemingly outclass a very strong pocket boxer in Jenkins and Buzukja look completely impotent against a mobile, long-range striker in Woodson. Emmers has the length and kickboxing to control the fight at a distance, plus the takedowns to recreate Woodson’s wrestling success. In short, “Pretty Boy” alternates between playing matador and smothering Buzukja en route to a one-sided decision win.

Prediction: Emmers via unanimous decision

Four more UFC 295 “Prelims” undercard bouts remain to preview and predict, including potentially explosive showdowns at Flyweight and Lightweight. Same time tomorrow, Maniacs.

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 295 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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