UFC 295 Clash: Dern Vs. Andrade!

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) women’s Strawweight contenders Mackenzie Dern and Jessica Andrade will duel this weekend (Sat., Nov. 11, 2023) at UFC 295 inside Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York.

At 30 years of age, Dern seems to be coming into her own as a contender. Her jiu-jitsu has always been elite, but her strides in physicality, punching power, and conditioning have sharpened that weapon considerably. Andrade, conversely, has hit a wall. The former champion has paid the price for jumping between weight classes, as she enters this contest riding a three-fight losing streak after nearly locking down a title shot back in January of this very year!

A Top Five spot is on the line for these Strawweight finishers, so let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for each woman:

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Mackenzie Dern

Record: 13-3

Key Wins: Tecia Torres (UFC 273), Angela Hill (UFC Vegas 73), Nina Nunes (UFC Vegas 23), Virna Jandiroba (UFC 256), Randa Markos (UFC Vegas 11)

Key Losses: Xiaonan Yan (UFC Vegas 61), Marina Rodriguez (UFC Vegas 39), Amanda Ribas (UFC Fight Night 161)

Keys to Victory: Dern is a lot of fun. Her submission game is so ridiculous that she can genuinely make a guard pull look threatening, and unlike most female-grapplers-turned-MMA-fighter, Dern’s right hand actually carries quite a bit of pop!

I don’t think Dern needs to reinvent the wheel here. Two of Andrade’s last three fights saw her out-wrestled and submitted, revealing that Andrade — like most other physical bruisers — hates being forced to work from her back. She’s just not great from that position, accustomed to dominating fights rather than being forced defensive.

Dern isn’t anywhere near the combination puncher of her opponent, but she’s strong and can crack. If she whips an overhand at Andrade, the Brazilian will feel it and surely fire back. That’s the perfect time to change levels and shoot. Hell, pull guard if needed! Once on the floor, Dern likely only needs to find her way to top position a single time to secure a finish.

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Jessica Andrade

Record: 24-12

Key Wins: Rose Namajunas (UFC 237), Katlyn Chookagian (UFC Fight Island 6), Claudia Gadelha (UFC Fight Night 117), Amanda Lemos (UFC Vegas 52), Karolina Kowalkiewicz (UFC 228), Tecia Torres (UFC on FOX 28), Lauren Murphy (UFC 283)

Key Losses: Valentina Shevchenko (UFC 261), Weili Zhang (UFC Fight Night 157), Rose Namajunas (UFC 251), Joanna Jedrzejczyk (UFC 211), Xiaonan Yan (UFC 288), Tatiana Suarez (UFC Nashville)

Keys to Victory: Andrade is an absolute powerhouse, capable of sleeping her opponents with a single left hook or spiking them through the canvas with a massive slam. She’s also arguably running herself ragged by fighting so often, as this will be her fifth fight at the elite level in 2023.

There’s a reason most top athletes don’t fight that often.

At any rate, this is still a winnable fight for “Bate Estaca.” She is, after all, the much better striker than her opponent. Her takedown defense isn’t bad either, and Dern is no Tatiana Suarez — she cannot chain wrestle particularly well.

Body work, per usual, should be of an absolute priority for Dern. Beyond the usual benefit of setting up her head shots and breaking down her opponent, taking her right hand to the chest offers a significant layer of takedown defense for Andrade. She’s already low to the ground and strong, so if she can just ensure that Dern doesn’t get under her, that will go a long way in keeping this a stand up fight.

At which point, Dern’s high chin suddenly starts being a huge liability.

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Bottom Line

The stakes are seriously high.

Dern needs some consistency. She’ll look like a world beater, and then lose a close fight in a showing that displays her inexperience. If she wants to secure her first shot at a world title, winning three in a row feels necessary. Stopping Andrade would make it two straight victories, perhaps setting up a title eliminator against the likes of Tatiana Suarez.

Otherwise, she’s just treading water.

As for Andrade, she’s trying to halt the plummet, but the fights aren’t getting any easier. Had Andrade not stepped up to fight Erin Blanchfield at 125 lbs. on short-notice, she could’ve fought for the belt this year! Instead, her activity cost her dearly, as did her predictability. Opponents are starting to catch on to her weaknesses, and it’s time for the former champion to make an adjustment.

Victory halts the slide and keeps her in the Top Five. Defeat ejects her from those ranks, and it might well end all talks of Andrade ever regaining the belt.

At UFC 295, Mackenzie Dern and Jessica Andrade will meet inside the Octagon. Which woman earns the victory?