UFC 295 Odds, Under Dogs And Best Bets!

Get a detailed breakdown of the betting lines for UFC 295, which is set to hit Madison Square Garden in New York City this weekend (Sat., Nov. 11, 2023), including best bets, underdogs, favorites and much more!

Former Middleweight kingpin, Alex Pereira, looks to become the latest Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) two-division champion this Saturday (Nov. 11, 2023) when he battles former Light Heavyweight roost-ruler, Jiri Prochazka, for the promotion’s vacant 205-pound strap inside Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. UFC 295 also sees next-gen destroyers Tom Aspinall vs. Sergei Pavlovich battle it out for interim Heavyweight gold and Jessica Andrade look to break out of her slump against Mackenzie Dern.

Now’s the time to save up for the biggest turkey you can find. Here’s how to get started …

What Went Wrong at UFC Sao Paulo?

Well, for one, four of my nine picks didn’t even make it to the cage … bit of a downer there.

Gabriel Bonfim

That’s the Dalby method: get demolished in the first round, then try and grit his way to a comeback win. I assumed Bonfim could get rid of him early, exploiting Dalby’s tendencies to get dropped and/or taken down. Alas, while he did largely dominate that first round, he couldn’t seal the deal before Dalby got into gear.

Rinat Fakhretdinov

He was two minutes away from gritting out a trio of 29-28s, but just slowed down too much and took too much damage after a red-hot start. Thankfully, he still managed to force a draw.

What Went Right?

Vitor Petrino

His wrestling and power proved too much for Modestas Bukauskas (as expected).

Eduarda Moura

Well, that was somehow even more one-sided than I thought it would be.

Caio Borralho

Finally, I pick against someone with cardio issues and the cardio issues actually flare up in time.

UFC 295 Odds For The Under Card:

Steve Erceg (-166) vs. Alessandro Costa (+140)

Though I’m high on Erceg, there’s value in Costa as the underdog. “Nono” packs monstrous power in his hands, strong takedown defense, and powerful low kicks of the sort Erceg struggled with against David Dvorak. Costa’s a bit chinny, so don’t make him the lynchpin of the evening’s betting, but don’t pass him up.

Lupita Godinez (-170) vs. Tabatha Ricci (+142)

Definitely give me Godinez at those odds. Where she previously struggled to use the right weapons at the right time, “Loopy” seems to have finally put it all together these last few fights, which is bad news considering most individual aspects of her game exceed Ricci’s. Better wrestling and more dangerous boxing make Godinez the pick of choice.

Mateusz Rebecki (N/A) vs. Roosevelt Roberts (N/A)

The odds aren’t out at time of writing, but try to snag Rebecki if he’s better than -250. He hits harder than Roberts, wrestles better than Roberts, and has a stronger grappling pedigree. The only real concern is how different Roberts is from original foe Nurullo Aliev, but the short notice should hurt Roberts as well and balance things out.

Nazim Sadykhov (-135) vs. Viacheslav Borshchev (+114)

I like Borshchev at positive odds. Sadykhov struggled badly on the feet against Evan Elder, who’s a tier below Borshchev when it comes to kickboxing prowess. Sadykhov ostensibly doesn’t have the smothering wrestling that is Borshchev’s kryptonite, so “Slava Claus” should have free rein to unleash his full arsenal and punish Sadykhov’s defensive lapses.

Jared Gordon (-198) vs. Mark O. Madison (+164)

Skip it. Gordon’s had a run of bad luck lately and has been controlled by stronger grapplers before, so even if he should take over in the second and third rounds, I can easily see Madsen squeaking it out with one or two well-timed takedowns down the stretch.

John Castaneda (-142) vs. Kyung Ho Kang (+120)

I think “Mr. Perfect’s” still got some magic in him. He’s got height and reach on Castaneda, plus a superior top game. Just keep the investment minimal, as Kang loves to underperform.

Joshua Van (-218) vs. Kevin Borjas (+180)

Don’t bet on this one … just enjoy it. This looks like an evenly-matched fire fight, too volatile to merit financial investment.

Jamall Emmers (-258) vs. Dennis Buzukja (+210)

Maybe a bit wider than is merited, but Emmers seems like a strong bet. We just saw Buzukja flail his way to a one-sided loss against another rangy striker in Sean Woodson, who also hit four of five takedowns despite never landing one in the UFC prior. Emmers, for his part, should have gotten the decision against a sharp pocket boxer in Jack Jenkins, so he has the tools to shut Buzukja down in similar fashion.

UFC 295 Odds For The Main Card:

Alex Pereira (-130) vs. Jiri Prochazka (+110)

Though I’ll be rooting for Prochazka, whose work I’ve admired since his Rizin days, it’s hard to pass up Pereira. Striking defense is Prochazka’s biggest bugbear, and as tough as he is, his knockout loss to Muhammad Lawal shows that there’s an upper limit to what he can shrug off. Try a bit on “Poatan.”

Tom Aspinall (-118) vs. Sergei Pavlovich (-102)

I’ve doubted him before, but now’s the time for me to put my faith in Pavlovich. The way he effortlessly shut down Curtis Blaydes’ wrestling has me thinking he can keep it on the feet, and while Aspinall is the sharper boxer, he also has a nasty habit of leaving his chin in the air that Pavlovich can exploit in dramatic fashion.

Mackenzie Dern (-198) vs. Jessica Andrade (+164)

Dern fights are a long-standing bane of mine in these articles, so leave it be.

Benoit Saint-Denis (-230) vs. Matt Frevola (+190)

I’m riding the Saint-Denis train until the wheels fall off. He and Frevola are going to knock the bejeezus out of each other, and considering the sort of damage we’ve seen Saint-Denis withstand, odds are it’ll be “Steamrolla” whose wheels fall off first.

Pat Sabatini (-120) vs. Diego Lopes (EVEN)

It’s a coin flip and neither man has positive odds, so leave it be.

UFC 295 Best Bets:

• Single bet — Viacheslav Borshchev: Bet $50 to make $57
• Single bet — Alessandro Costa: Bet $45 to make $63
• Single bet — Kyung Ho Kang: Bet $40 to make $48
• Single bet — Sergei Pavlovich: Bet $70 to make $68.62
• Parlay — Jamall Emmers and Alex Pereira: Bet $60 to make $87.29
• Parlay — Lupita Godinez and Benoit Saint-Denis: $60 to make $76.72

Initial Investment For 2023: $600
April Bailout: $400
August Bailout: $500
Current Total: $1042.41

Even my cynical heart is looking forward to UFC 295. See you Saturday, Maniacs.

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 295 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 295: “Prochazka vs. Pereira” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.