UFC 295 Predictions, Preview, And Analysis

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will return to “The City That Never Sleeps” with the upcoming UFC 295 pay-per-view (PPV) fight card, topped by a championship doubleheader that features former 205-pound kingpin Jiri Prochazka taking on ex-middleweight titleholder Alex Pereira for the vacant light heavyweight belt, as well as heavyweight hurters Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall going to war for the interim 265-pound strap.

Those two five-round bangers don’t sooth the searing pain of losing Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic, thanks to a late injury by “Bones,” but they certainly help justify the cost of this weekend’s big shebang. In addition, the Nov. 11 lineup from Madison Square Garden in New York City will also deliver an important women’s strawweight contest pitting former champion Jessica Andrade opposite grappling sensation Mackenzie Dern.

So who wins and who loses? That’s what we’re here to figure out.

Before we break down the five-fight PPV main card, which also features a lightweight collision between 155-pound “Steamrolla” Matt Frevola and Parisian “God of War” Benoit Saint-Denis, be sure to take a closer look at our comprehensive preview and predictions for this weekend’s preliminary undercard action on ESPNN and ESPN+ by clicking here and here. The latest UFC 295 odds and a complete betting guide for the entire “Prochazka vs. Pereira” PPV lineup can be located here.

Let’s take a look at what the main card has in store for us this weekend in the “Big Apple.”

205 lbs.: Jiri “BJP” Prochazka (29-3-1) vs. Alex “Poatan” Pereira (8-2) for vacant light heavyweight title

Alex Pereira is a very dangerous striker with one-punch knockout power. The stone-faced Brazilian demonstrated that power on the kickboxing circuit, then lived up to the hype when he debuted in UFC back in late 2021, racking up three brutal knockouts — along with three post-fight performance bonuses — in his first four trips to the Octagon.

Not too shabby.

Unfortunately for Pereira, living by the sword also means dying by the sword, and his kill-or-be-killed offense, perhaps coupled with his inhuman weight cut, left him looking up at the lights after rematching Israel Adesanya at UFC 287. The end result was a trip north to the light heavyweight division (where he’ll still cut weight, just not as much) and a title eliminator against former division champion Jan Blachowicz.

The results were … puzzling.

Blachowicz has the uncanny ability to bring out the worst in fighters, which sounds like an insult, but may also be a testament to his rough-and-tumble style. The superstitious Pole has been able to shut down opponents in the past and neutralize their gameplans, with Adesanya and Magomed Ankalaev getting stonewalled across five rounds of fighting. Pereira may have been just another striker to be flummoxed by Blachowicz or perhaps he’s not the vaunted assassin he was at middleweight.

UFC 295 should help provide some answers.

Jiri Prochazka has been with the company since summer 2020 but has only registered three fights along the way and hasn’t competed in well over a year, thanks to a devastating shoulder injury that cost him the 205-pound title. It’s a shame that “BJP” has lost so much time of his fighting prime and with any luck, his return at UFC 295 will mark the beginning of an extended run with the same fireworks MMA fans have come to expect from the Czech destroyer.

Prochazka has more UFC performance bonuses than he does UFC fights.

That should give you an idea of what’s in store this weekend in New York City. Can he defeat Pereira? It’s easy to fall in love with the Brazilian’s knockout power and his highlight reel is impressive. That said, Pereira has never looked entirely comfortable inside the cage and his ground game … well, it’s not a great sign when Adesanya is taking you down and keeping you on the floor. Expect more of the same from Prochazka.

This fight, like all fights, will start on the feet and probably stay there for extended periods of time. Prochazka is not a traditional striker and holds no fidelity to the fundamentals of boxing, so you’ll see a lot of weird angles and unorthodox strikes, like the one that turned Dominick Reyes into sawdust at UFC Vegas 25. I think his movement will frustrate Pereira and have him throwing airballs, which in turn will set up easy-peasy takedowns.

I even think Prochazka will finish the defense-challenged Pereira from mount.

Prediction: Prochazka def. Pereira by technical knockout

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265 lbs.: Sergei Pavlovich (18-1) vs. Tom Aspinall (13-3) for interim heavyweight title

Once-beaten 265-pound contender Sergei Pavlovich is coming off six straight wins with all six opponents getting knocked the f—k out in the opening frame. That’s the kind of statistic that keep rival heavyweights up at night, including opponent Tom Aspinall, and Pavlovich will undoubtedly be looking to make it seven straight this weekend in “The Empire State.” But before we start digging Aspinall’s grave, we need to take a closer look at what the Russian destroyer has done over the last five years because I’m not sure it holds up under scrutiny.

Marcelo Golm and Maurice Greene are both terrible and got cut from UFC for being … well, terrible. Shamil Abdurakhimov is 42 years old, has now lost four straight, and got creamed in all four losses. Derrick Lewis has been knocked out seven times in UFC and Tai Tuivasa is basically a bar fighter who trains shoeys more than he trains MMA. I don’t want to poo-poo Pavlovich’s victory over Curtis Blaydes, who is ranked in the Top 5 at 265 pounds, but I also don’t want to pretend that “Razor” has any business trying to strike with someone like Pavlovich. That’s not to suggest that any of these wins were easy because it only takes one punch to end a heavyweight contest, but keep in mind we are trying to build a case for defeating one of the most talented heavyweight prospects in the history of the weight class.

Like Pavlovich, the 30 year-old Aspinall has spent the last couple of years toying with the middle-to-lower half of the heavyweight division, beating the brakes off the likes of Marcin Tybura and Sergey Spivak, while securing quick submissions over established veterans like Alexander Volkov and Andrei Arlovski. We can make many of the same arguments against Aspinall as we did against Pavlovich, because the Brit’s resume is good, but not great. I can’t really fault either fighter for not facing someone higher up on the ladder, like Stipe Miocic, because the ex-champ prefers to stay home and call himself the greatest of all time, which is far easier than proving it against the likes of Pavlovich and Aspinall. In addition, the promotion had other plans for Ciryl Gane, who may have done a better job of separating contender from pretender.

Pavlovich has one way to win this fight and that’s by knockout, something we can’t easily rule out because he’s incredibly fast and incredibly powerful. Aspinall, on the other hand, has multiple ways to claim this contest and now is a good time to point out that he’s got a 100-percent success rate in takedowns — both scoring them and defending them. I know the Alistair Overeem fight is ancient history, but the blueprint is there for neutralizing the Russian’s powerful offense. Assuming Aspinall’s surgically-repaired knee holds up, along with his cardio, I don’t expect him to waste much (or any) time on the feet, where every passing second leaves him in mortal danger. Unlike most heavyweight fights, where the prevailing strategy is “swing first, swing hard, and hope for the best,” this bout will showcase Aspinall’s complete skill set and set him up for the next 265-pound title fight.

Prediction: Aspinall def. Pavlovich by submission

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115 lbs.: Jessica “Bate Estaca” Andrade (24-12) vs. Mackenzie Dern (13-3)

Jessica Andrade is a former UFC strawweight champion who can’t seem to make up her mind when it comes to success inside the Octagon. In some fights, she looks like the most dangerous fighter at 115 pounds, slamming former champion Rose Namajunas into oblivion and strangling ex-title challenger Amanda Lemos with relative ease. In other fights, she looks completely lost, leaving her chin on a silver platter for Xiaonan Yan or running head first into a submission against Tatiana Suarez. That’s probably why “Bate Estaca” has 17 finishes in 24 wins — and nine finishes in 12 losses.

She also has nine performance bonuses, more than any other female fighter in the history of women’s MMA (under the UFC banner). In addition, Andrade holds division records for finishes and KO/TKO wins, making her one of the most formidable strawweights on the roster. That said, the Brazilian is mired in a dreadful three-fight losing streak in which she was put away in all three losses. Perhaps her recent divorce and the upheaval in her personal life is to blame, but we can’t rule out the wear-and-tear on her mind and body after 36 professional fights. Remember, Andrade goes as hard (or harder) than any fighter from bell-to-bell which is great for the fans, not-so-great for career longevity.

Working in her favor for UFC 295 is the fact that Mackenzie Dern is … well, a putrid striker, scoring a grand total of zero knockouts in 16 fights. That’s why I’m not going to bother comparing height and reach because let’s be honest here, is Dern going to work the jab, cut off angles, and set up her power shots? No, she’s going to flail her arms with the intent to get inside so she can unleash her world-class jiu-jitsu game. If you’re unfamiliar with her skills on the grappling mats, all you need to know is that Dern is one of the few women to defeat IBJJF Hall of Famer Gabi Garcia, who stands 6’2” and weighs over 200 pounds. By comparison, Dern is 5’4” and last weighed in at 115 pounds. Andrade is no slouch on the ground but her defense will not be able to keep Dern at bay for any extended period of time.

That’s really what this fight boils down to. Andrade can very easily beat the stuffing out of Dern on the feet and possibly end it, by way of slam or punches in bunches. The risk for her is getting close enough to land those shots, something Dern will be counting on. We’ve seen fighters in the past, like Marina Rodriguez, defend the takedowns and work a patient counterattack to exploit Dern’s porous defense. Andrade could certainly replicate that performance, as Yan did, but I think the aggressive nature of “Bate Estaca” will betray her coaches’ gameplan. Sooner or later Andrade is going to get impatient, frustrated, or just plain bloodthirsty. Expect a reckless attack to cost her a limb, or perhaps her neck.

Prediction: Dern def. Andrade by submission

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155 lbs.: Matt “The Steamrolla” Frevola (11-3-1) vs. Benoit “God of War” Saint-Denis (12-1, 1 NC)

Benoit Saint-Denis seems to be the toast of the lightweight town, with oddsmakers giving him a generous -230 moneyline heading into tomorrow night’s action. His performances over the last couple of years certainly validate that confidence, to the tune of four straight wins with four nasty finishes. That includes his technical knockout victory over Thiago Moises at the UFC Paris event back in Sept., giving the self-proclaimed “God of War” a little over two months to get back into gear. Considering how easily he disposed of the Brazilian, I don’t expect that to be a particularly tall order for the 27 year-old Parisian, who is competing in his fighting prime.

I know it’s easy to fall in love with stats and Saint-Denis has some good ones. That said, I’m not sure I want to wear my expensive tie to the back-patting ceremony, because his quality of opposition is hardly anything to brag about. Niklas Stolze went 0-3 in UFC and got sent packing, while Gabriel Miranda and Ismael Bonfim each have just two fights inside the Octagon, both sporting a 1-1 record. That would make Moises his biggest win to date and it’s worth mentioning the Sao Paulo native is 6-5 under the UFC banner and not ranked in the Top 15, so maybe we need to pump the brakes on the Saint-Denis hype train.

Especially since he was defeated by Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos.

That doesn’t mean I’m bringing out the marching band for Matt Frevola, though I do think he wins this fight. Like Saint-Denis, the 33 year-old “Steamrolla” has been red hot over the last few years, racking up three straight wins with three straight knockout finishes — all in the first round. His annihilation of Drew Dober at UFC 288 was good enough for a post-fight performance bonus and did a fine job of putting some distance between his 2021 struggles. In fact, the Dober win was good enough to land Frevola at No. 14 in the official lightweight rankings, a spot he will no doubt surrender with a loss this weekend in the “Big Apple.”

I think we need to recognize that most of Frevola’s hype comes from beating Dober. Well, that and his go-for-broke fighting style. But when we get past Dober, many of the same issues I had with Saint-Denis come into play. Genaro Valdez and Ottman Azaitar are a combined 2-5 under the UFC banner and unlikely to be around this time next year. I’m also not running to the betting window because of his split decision victory over Luis Pena. The good news is this fight is going to determine which one of these 155-pound bruisers is the real deal and ready for a run in the Top 15. I like Frevola’s brand of violence just a little bit better, though I could very easily see “The Steamrolla” punching himself out with a too-soon blitzkrieg and running out of gas, but that would require Saint-Denis to weather the Nebraskan’s storm.

Not likely.

Prediction: Frevola def. Saint-Denis by technical knockout

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145 lbs.: Diego Lopes (22-6) vs. Pat Sabatini (18-4)

Diego Lopes has been one of the rare feel-good stories of 2023. Originally invited to prove himself on Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in summer 2021, the Brazilian came up short against Joanderson Brito and was sent back to the regional circuit, before destiny called at UFC 288 last May. Lopes, a jiu-jitsu coach for bantamweight contender Irene Aldana, replaced Bryce Mitchell on less than a week’s notice and put on a “Fight of the Night” performance against Top 10-ranked featherweight bruiser Movsar Evloev. That showing was good enough to land the 28 year-old grappling phenom a contract with UFC and a callback for the Nashville card in August, where a full camp led him to a submission victory over the venerable Gavin Tucker.

Pat Sabatini was one of the top names for Cage Fury Fighting Championships (CFFC) and finally made his Octagon debut in early 2021, scoring a unanimous decision victory over Canadian veteran Tristan Connelly. Three more wins would follow, as well as talk of title contention, but then Sabatini got melted by Damon Jackson at UFC Vegas 60. That loss forced the Pennsylvanian to overhaul his training camp and retool his approach to fight week and the results are hard to discredit. Sabatini returned with a second-round submission victory over Lucas Almeida at UFC Vegas 75.

Lopes is a grappler by trade and but has underrated power. I’m just not sure it will come into play against Sabatini, who is a jiu-jitsu black belt under Daniel Gracie. The Brazilian is likely to spend most of their three-round fight trying to force a mistake from guard, but I believe Sabatini is too experienced to let that happen and their respective grappling games will likely cancel each other out. This fight will probably end in favor of the busier, more aggressive fighter and for my money, that’s Sabatini.

Prediction: Sabatini def. Lopes by unanimous decision

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Gonna be a wild weekend in New York.

MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 295 fight card right RIGHT HERE, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining undercard balance on ESPNN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, before the PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 295: “Prochazka vs. Pereira” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here. For the updated and finalized UFC 295 fight card and ESPN+ lineup click here.