Predictions! UFC Vegas 82 ‘Prelims’ Preview – Pt. 1

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to its APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, this weekend (Sat., Nov. 18, 2023) as Brendan Allen puts his five-fight win streak on the line against Paul Craig, who announced his arrival at 185 pounds with a beatdown of Andre Muniz (watch it). UFC Vegas 82’s co-feature pits fast-rising prospect, Michael Morales, against dangerous veteran Jake Matthews, while Chase Hooper looks for his second Lightweight victory at Jordan Leavitt’s expense.

Eight Seven “Prelims” undercard bouts will set UFC Vegas 82’s main stage, four of which we’ve broken down for you below. Let’s dig in …

145 lbs.: Jeka Saragih vs. Lucas Alexander

Indonesia’s Jeka Saragih (13-3) smashed his way to the “Road to UFC” finals with brutal knockouts of Pawan Maan Singh and Won Bin Ki. There he faced Anshul Jubli, who exploited “Si Tendangan Maut’s” wrestling issues to pound him out late in the second.

All but one of his wins have come inside the distance, eight of them via knockout.

Lucas Alexander’s (8-3) short-notice UFC debut saw him overpowered and submitted in little more than two minutes by Joanderson Brito. He was quite a bit more successful his next time out, out-classing Steven Peterson to win a unanimous decision and send “Ocho” into retirement.

He steps in for Jesse Butler on around 2.5 weeks’ notice after a Nov. 4, 2023, bout with David Onama fell through.

Saragih was one of my favorites on “Road to UFC” — and even though I can’t imagine him ever polishing his takedown defense to the point where he becomes a contender — I’m glad to see him get another shot. He has a shot here by virtue of Alexander not being a grappler, but I don’t see this one going well, either. Alexander just seems too mobile and composed on the feet for Saragih to hunt down, even with Saragih’s explosiveness.

Saragih absolutely hits hard enough to turn the tide with one shot and Alexander did get blitzed by Brito, so it’s not a totally hopeless matchup. Alexander just has too much of a technical edge. In short, Saragih’s inability to cut the cage allows Alexander to run circles around him for a clean win.

Prediction: Alexander via unanimous decision

135 lbs.: Lucie Pudilova vs. Ailin Perez

After washing out of UFC on the heels of a four-fight skid, Lucie Pudilova (14-8) put together a 5-1 run in her native Czech Republic to earn another shot. She pounded out Wu Yanan in her return, only to drop a bogus decision to Joselyne Edwards her next time out.

She is the taller woman by three inches and sports a 1.5-inch reach advantage.

Ailin Perez’s (8-2) UFC debut saw her out-grappled by judo ace Stephanie Egger, who handed “Fiona” the first non-disqualification loss of her professional career. After a February date with Hailey Cowan fell through, Perez returned to action in July 2023 with a dominant decision over Ashlee Evans-Smith.

She’s knocked out four professional foes and submitted one other.

Though Perez is quite one-dimensional, it’s the right dimension for this matchup. History suggests that she’ll have the wrestling advantage and Pudilova’s edge on the feet won’t matter much if she can’t keep it there.

The only way I see Pudilova winning this is if she can drag Perez into a firefight and beat her down through attrition. Considering Perez has the gas tank to shoot more than one dozen takedowns per fight and can ostensibly blunt any Pudilova momentum by dragging her to the mat, that doesn’t seem terribly likely. In the end, non-stop wrestling and steady ground-and-pound should hand Perez her second straight UFC victory.

Prediction: Perez via unanimous decision

155 lbs.: Trey Ogden vs. Nikolas Motta

Trey Ogden (16-6) came up huge on Dana White’s Lookin’ for a Fight, choking out J.J. Okanovich to win Fury FC’s Lightweight title. He now sits at 1-2 in the Octagon, an upset of Daniel Zellhuber sandwiched between losses to Jordan Leavitt and Ignacio Bahamondes.

All 11 of his professional stoppages have come via submission.

Nikolas Motta (13-5) followed his successful Cage Fury title bout with a one-sided decision over Joseph Lowry on Contender Series, only for three planned UFC debuts to fall apart. Upon his return to action, he likewise dropped two of his next three to Jim Miller and Manuel Torres.

He gives up two inches of height and reach to Ogden.

It’s safe to say at this point that Motta does not have the durability or defensive skills to be a factor at 155 pounds. Getting smoked by Torres isn’t damning on its own, as that was as nasty an elbow as you’ll ever see, but it marked the fourth knockout loss of “Iron’s” career.

Luckily for him, Ogden is not a threat on the feet. Bahamondes out-landed him 2:1 and Leavitt left him looking like he’d never even heard of a leg kick. Motta should have the takedown defense to keep it on the feet and definitely has the boxing to dominate there. So long as he doesn’t somehow get chinned by a guy with no knockout wins, he should piece up Ogden for a decisive victory.

Prediction: Motta via unanimous decision

125 lbs.: Charles Johnson vs. Rafael Estevam

Charles Johnson (13-5) — the former Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) Flyweight champion — bounced back from an unsuccessful UFC debut against Muhammad Mokaev by winning his next two fights. The run wasn’t to last, as “InnerG” then dropped back-to-back decisions to Ode Osbourne and Cody Durden in the span of two months.

His nine professional finishes include five via knockout.

After a lengthy run under the Shooto Brasil banner, Rafael Estevam (11-0) pounded out undefeated Filipe Esteves in his LFA debut. This led to a Contender Series appearance 14 months later in which he survived early submission trouble to pummel Joao Elias and claim a UFC contract.

Saturday’s fight ends a 14-month layoff after a botched weight cut scuttled his planned May 2023 UFC debut.

Johnson cannot deal with chain wrestling. His sprawl is strong and his cardio is endless, but he can’t seem to break away once an opponent manages to latch on. Unfortunately for him, that’s exactly where Estevam excels. “Macapa” is an extremely dogged takedown artist and ferocious ground-and-pounder who seemingly has the tools to recreate Mokaev’s and Durden’s successful efforts.

To Johnson’s credit, he’ll enjoy a significant advantage on the feet, where Estevam has little to offer besides body kicks. Not that it’ll do him much good if Estevam never gives him the space to get any offense going. In the end, Estevam grapples his way to a suffocating decision win.

Prediction: Estevam via unanimous decision

Four more UFC Vegas 82 “Prelims” bouts remain to preview and predict, including a debuting kickboxer with a win over Alex Pereira and what could be a show-stealer between Jonathan Pearce and Joanderson Brito. Same time tomorrow, Maniacs.

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 82 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 2 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance (also on ESPN+) at 5 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 82: “Allen vs. Craig” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.