This weekend (Sat., Nov. 18, 2023), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns home to UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 82. This is … not the most inspired card of all time. Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig is a fun fight, but a main event? I guess. Elsewhere on the card, there are certainly fun fighters to look forward to (we’ll be talking about most of them momentarily), but by my count, there are a grand total of FOUR ranked fighters on the entire card.

To quote the brilliant Max Holloway, “It is what it is.” Let’s dig into all the main card fights leading up to the main event:

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Welterweight: Jake Matthews vs. Michael Morales

Best Win for Matthews? Li Jingliang For Morales? Max Griffin
Current Streak: Matthews won his last bout, whereas Morales is 3-0 in the UFC and 14-0 overall
X-Factor: Matthews is wildly inconsistent
How these two match up: I would be shocked if this fight doesn’t produce at least one knock down.

Matthews is a remarkably difficult fighter to get a read on. Case in point: he steamrolled Andre Fialho, looking like a reborn boxing ace. Next time out, he gets dropped by the fairly one-note Matthew Semelsberger multiple times. I would advise betting fans to stay away from the obviously talented Aussie, because he is very unpredictable.

Morales, meanwhile, is one of the most talented fighters under the age of 25 on the roster. The Ecuadorian prospect is absurdly strong and hits stupid hard — how much more is needed in MMA to succeed?

In terms of technical ability, Matthews is the better wrestler, superior submission grappler, and sharper combination puncher. In the cage, I expect Morales to shuck off any and all of Matthews’ takedowns and then punch him in the face repeatedly.

Really, I just don’t think Matthews performs well unless he’s clearly the better athlete. Morales has him matched — likely exceeded — in raw speed and power, and I’m not sure Matthews has what it takes to eat some shots and force this back into a technical battle that he could actually win.

More likely, Morales adds another finish to his win streak.

Prediction: Morales via knockout

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Lightweight: Jordan Leavitt vs. Chase Hooper

Best Win for Leavitt? Matt Wiman For Hooper? Felipe Colares
Current Streak: Both men won their last bout
X-Factor: Hooper is still just 24 years old
How these two match up: Two up-and-coming grapplers will scrap it out.

Leavitt fights mostly like a pretty standard jiu-jitsu guy, grinding for takedowns along the fence and showing off smooth transitions on the mat. His last fight, however, saw him score a surprising knockout on the feet, so perhaps there’s more to “The Monkey King” than meets the eye.

Hooper, similarly, is a ground specialist as well. At times, he’s looked downright abysmal on the feet, but i have to say I was impressed with his recent Lightweight debut. Though his striking was still a touch awkward, Hooper made up for it by throwing punches-in-bunches and overwhelming his opponent via pure work rate.

There are two real paths I can see this fight taking. On one hand, Leavitt appears the more technically sound wrestler, and that may allow him to control Hooper on the floor for extended periods of time. Conversely, Hooper is just so much more offensive and high-volume than Leavitt, which can easily make the difference when their skill sets are fairly similar.

I lean towards the latter. Hooper getting controlled by Steven Peterson on the floor is slightly concerning, but two years is a long time ago for a young prospect. Hooper is no longer killing himself to make 145-pounds, and I expect that equates to more takedown defense and better ground resistance from “The Dream.”

Prediction: Hooper via decision

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Photo by Al Powers/Zuffa LLC

Bantamweight: Payton Talbott vs. Nick Aguirre

Best Win for Talbott? Reyes Cortez For Aguirre? Brandon Clawson
Current Streak: Talbott makes his UFC debut at 6-0, while Aguirre recently lost his own UFC debut
X-Factor: Talbott’s cardio is ridiculous
How these two match up: Bantamweight prospects usually provide the violence.

I had the pleasure of watching Talbott rise through the ranks live on the regional scene, and the displeasure of watching it happen against several of my friends. There’s a fair bit of Diaz to his fight style, which sees the lanky Bantamweight stalk his opponents with volume and truly relentless pressure until they fold. Even as a random 1-0 pro from a gym nobody knew much about, Talbott has always had remarkable composure in the cage.

Aguirre is a more classic submission fighter. He’s slick on the canvas, but his wrestling was somewhat exposed in his UFC debut, as he was repeatedly forced to his back and controlled by Dan Argueta.

I’ve seen a lot of regional fights live, and a good handful of fighters come up the ranks and join the UFC roster. Talbott stands out, not as some perfect fighter or remarkable Cody Garbrandt-esque athletic talent, but as an athlete with that special factor which separates him from the pack.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Aguirre has some early success with his takedowns or even punches, but it’s not going to last. Midway through the second, the onslaught of strikes will be getting to him, whereas Talbott will still be heating up en route to a debut victory.

Prediction: Talbott via knockout

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Strawweight: Amanda Ribas vs. Luana Pinheiro

Best Win for Ribas? Mackenzie Dern For Pinheiro? Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Current Streak: Ribas lost her last bout, whereas Pinheiro has won three straight in the Octagon
X-Factor: Ribas’ durability isn’t the best
How these two match up: Outside of the main event, these are the only ranked athletes on the card.

Ribas is a fun fighter. I would describe her striking as enthusiastic, certainly effective but also with some significant issues. Her ground game is much more rock solid, and now that she’s back at 115 lbs., she may have better success in utilizing it. Pinheiro is a Judo specialist and a majority of her wins come via submission. Undefeated in the Octagon, Pinheiro’s last bout against Waterson-Gomez was quite controversial, as “The Karate Hottie” denied most of her takedown attempts and landed more shots on the feet.

Generally, the knock on Ribas is that she’s super hittable and leaves her chin up in the air. A lot of women can get away with that flaw, but Ribas has been knocked out or rocked a good handful of times now. Fortunately, it doesn’t seem like Pinheiro is the opponent to capitalize on that issue.

Ribas is probably the better striker, and she showed off years ago against Dern that she can play a sprawl-and-brawl game pretty well. Without the knockout threat really on the table — though it’s always possible, of course — Ribas should be able to control the fight.

Prediction: Ribas via decision

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Welterweight: Uros Medic vs. Jonny Parsons

Best Win for Medic? Matthew Semelsberger For Parsons? Danny Roberts
Current Streak: Medic has won his last two, while Parsons recently made a successful UFC debut
X-Factor: There’s big power on both sides of this equation
How these two match up: Someone is going to sleep.

Medic is a really fun striker, known for jump knees and spinning backfists alike. “The Doctor” has stopped all nine of his wins inside the distance, mostly via knockout. Parsons is a slick combination boxer himself, a more dynamic puncher than appearances let on. He moves well and always stays in position to trade, which has helped him score seven of his own wins via KO.

Parsons has a fun boxing game, but he feels more limited than his opponent. He has fewer weapons, and he faces a significant height and reach disadvantage. Combined with Medic’s overall athleticism edge, that’s quite a few factors going against “The Sluggernaut.” Furthermore, Medic’s superior range kicking will make that size advantage feel even more problematic, so Parsons will have to walk through a whole lot of fire to get his game going.

Sounds like a rough night at the office.

Prediction: Medic via knockout

‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2023: 46-36-1 (2)