UFC Vegas 82 Odds, Under Dogs And Best Bets!

Get a detailed breakdown of the betting lines for UFC Vegas 82, which is set to hit UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, this weekend (Sat., Nov. 18, 2023), including best bets, underdogs, favorites and much more!

Top Middleweight submission artists Brendan Allen and Paul Craig headline UFC’s return to Las Vegas, Nevada, this Saturday (Nov. 18, 2023), which also sees Jake Matthews battle rising prospect Michael Morales and Jordan Leavitt look to spoil Chase Hooper’s Lightweight experiment.

UFC Vegas 82 marks the promotion’s final show until December, so now’s the time to squeeze out as much profit as we can. Here’s how …

What Went Wrong at UFC 295?

Viacheslav Borshchev

He got clipped. The difference in overall striking skill might have been even more dramatic than I expected, but Sadykhov’s power is real. All the credit in the world to Slava for gritting out a draw — I genuinely didn’t expect him to recover from that second round, but that body work sapped Sadykhov enough to let Borshchev retake the reins.

Alessandro Costa

Whether it was the short notice or just not pacing himself, he lost steam in the third after taking control in the second. Steve Erceg elected to play it safe down the stretch and Costa couldn’t stop him.

Kyung Ho Kang

Yep, there’s the “Mr. Perfect” we know and love. Didn’t try a single takedown even after Castaneda completely figured him out on the feet. That’s why he was the smallest investment.

Sergei Pavlovich

Tom Aspinall left his chin out and Pavlovich cracked him with a bomb, as expected. Unexpected, Aspinall ate that bomb and came back with a bigger one. Fair play to Aspinall.

What Went Right?

Jamall Emmers, Alex Pereira, Lupita Godinez and Benoit Saint-Denis

Two extremely rapid knockouts, one brutal finish in the second, and one strong performance nearly undone by an incompetent judge. These four actually carried us to a slight profit on the evening despite the single bets falling apart.

Photo by George Tewkesbury/PA Images via Getty Images

UFC Vegas 82 Odds For The Under Card:

Jonathan Pearce (-130) vs. Joanderson Brito (+110)

With Cesar Almeida out of commission, Joanderson Brito becomes my underdog pick of the night. Pearce is a fighter who relies on bullying opponents and he’s up against a man he simply cannot bully. Brito has the wrestling and grappling chops to hold his own in Pearce’s wheelhouse, and if the clean punches Pearce took from Darren Elkins are anything to go by, Brito will find a home for his haymakers as well. Believe in “Tubarao.”

Jose Johnson (-185) vs. Chad Anheliger (+154)

Skip it. These are two highly flawed fighters whom I cannot trust to fight to the best of their abilities.

Mick Parkin (-360) vs. Caio Machado (+285)

Use Parkin as a parlay anchor. Machado is a decent slugger when he’s fresh, but still well behind Parkin in terms of striking and wrestling skill. On top of that, “Bigfoot” loses steam fairly quickly, while Parkin threw and landed more strikes in the third round of his fight with Jamal Pogues than in either of the first two.

Lucas Alexander (-470) vs. Jeka Saragih (+360)

Skip it. Saragih has a knack for out-of-nowhere knockouts but is so technically outclassed that I can’t recommend betting on him, either.

Ailin Perez (-198) vs. Lucie Pudilova (+165)

Much as I love watching Pudilova bring the pain, this is an ugly matchup for her. She’s become increasingly reliant on out-wrestling opponents, which isn’t happening against a single-minded grappler like Perez. Though Pudilova will have an edge on the feet, Perez’s superior wrestling and ability to fire double-digit takedown attempts will carry her to victory. “Fiona” is the bet.

Nikolas Motta (-135) vs. Trey Ogden (+114)

I’m pretty sure I’m a combined 2-4 in predicting these guys’ UFC fights, so maybe I should steer clear, especially with how much damage Motta’s taken lately.

Rafael Estevam (-135) vs. Charles Johnson (+114)

Even with his recent layoff, I can’t pass up Estevam. Johnson’s losses to Muhammad Mokaev and Cody Durden showed a decided inability to deal with persistent chain-wrestlers, a bill that Estevam fits nicely. Keep the bet moderate, as Estevam has been out for a bit and is hugely outclassed on the feet, but don’t pass him up.

Christian Leroy Duncan (N/A) vs. Denis Tiuliulin (N/A)

Odds aren’t out at time of writing. Snag Duncan if you can get him at -250 or better; Tiuliulin is too limited to deal with Duncan’s oddball style the way Cesar Almeida would have.

UFC Vegas 82 Odds For The Main Card:

Brendan Allen (-425) vs. Paul Craig (+330)

I avoid Craig fights in these columns on principle. Way too volatile.

Michael Morales (-285) vs. Jake Matthews (+230)

There’s just not a whole lot going Matthews’ way in this matchup; Morales has half a foot of reach on him, more power, and superior wrestling. Matthews has the better top game, but I don’t see him taking Morales down or dropping him, so that won’t be a factor. Try Morales in a parlay.

Chase Hooper (-218) vs. Jordan Leavitt (+180)

Hooper seems like a solid pick here. Leavitt’s offensive wrestling is weak and he tends to struggle down the stretch, so the million-strikes-a-minute gameplan Hooper employed last time out looks like a potent weapon. Even if Leavitt does manage to neutralize him early, Hooper’s freak cardio will turn the tides before long. Just don’t go nuts; I’ve been burned on Hooper before.

Payton Talbott (-850) vs. Nick Aguirre (+575)

Skip it. Way too wide for a debuting fighter.

Amanda Ribas (-250) vs. Luana Pinheiro (+205)

Try a small flier on Pinheiro. She looked awful against Michelle Waterson-Gomez, but she’s got legitimate power and Ribas has never been the most durable Strawweight. Pinheiro’s judo background could also play a factor in keeping it on the feet.

Uros Medic (N/A) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (N/A)

Odds aren’t out at time of writing and I haven’t had the opportunity to give Orolbai a once-over, so leave it alone.

UFC Vegas 82 Best Bets:

• Single bet — Joanderson Brito: Bet $80 to make $88
• Single bet — Luana Pinheiro: Bet $40 to make $81
• Single bet — Rafael Estevam: Bet $60 to make $44.44
• Parlay — Mick Parkin and Ailin Perez: Bet $80 to make $73.84
• Parlay — Michael Morales and Chase Hooper: Bet $60 to make $58.23

Initial Investment For 2023: $600
April Bailout: $400
August Bailout: $500
Current Total: $1051.42

UFC Vegas 82 is not exactly a star-studded show, but odds are we’ll get some quality entertainment at the very least. See you Saturday, Maniacs.

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 82 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 2 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance (also on ESPN+) at 5 p.m. ET.

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