UFC Vegas 82: ‘Allen Vs Craig’ Predictions

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Vegas 82 mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., Nov. 18, 2023) on ESPN+ from inside the promotion’s APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, featuring a middleweight main event between Top 15 title hopefuls Brendan Allen and Paul Craig, a five-round headliner with major title implications for late 2023 and beyond.

Before we dive into the main and co-main event, which includes the 170-pound scrap between welterweight bruisers Michael Morales and Jake Matthews, check out Patrick Stumberg’s breakdowns for the UFC Vegas 82 preliminary card by clicking here and here. For the latest “Allen vs. Craig” odds and betting props courtesy of our fiscal friends over at DraftKings go here. For the rest of the UFC Vegas 82 main card predictions click here.

185 lbs.: Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig

Brendan “All In” Allen

Record: 22-5 | Age: 27 | Betting line: -425
Wins: 5 KO/TKO, 13 SUB, 4 DEC | Losses: 2 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 6’2“ | Reach: 75” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.96 | Striking accuracy: 53%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.89 | Striking Defense: 46%
Takedown Average: 1.22 (42% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 55%
Current Ranking: No. 10 | Last fight: Submission win over Bruno Silva

Paul “Bearjew” Craig

Record: 17-6-1 | Age: 35 | Betting line: +330
Wins: 4 KO/TKO, 13 SUB, 0 DEC | Losses: 4 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 6’3“ | Reach: 76” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 2.57 | Striking accuracy: 46%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.85 | Striking Defense: 46%
Takedown Average: 1.91 (23% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 42%
Current Ranking: No. 13 | Last fight: Technical knockout win over Andre Muniz

Paul Craig has a pretty crazy resume when you consider what he’s done inside the Octagon. In addition to his eight post-fight performance bonuses, the 35 year-old “Bearjew” holds technical knockout victories over two former light heavyweight champions in Jamahal Hill and Mauricio Rua, as well as a submission finish over No. 3-ranked title contender Magomed Ankalaev. Unfortunately, Craig has been unable to stay consistent at 205 pounds, evidenced by consecutive losses to Volkan Oezdemir and Johnny Walker, prompting a cut down to the 185-pound weight class.

So far, so good.

Craig was able to whoop Brazilian bruiser Andre Muniz back in July and earn himself a spot in the Top 15 of the middleweight rankings. He’s a talented grappler with a staggering 13 submissions in 17 wins and has never won a professional fight by decision. But fighters who live by the sword typically die by the sword as well, and the stout Scot has been put away in five of his six losses.

“This is one of those battles where people say, ‘It’s going to be a grappling battle’ [but] I don’t believe that,” Craig said at the UFC Vegas 82 media day. “I believe this battle is very much going to be a stand-up battle. Who is going to control the distance? Who is going to control the Octagon? Then from that, who is going to capitalize with these heavy shots? Imposing damage, imposing will, and from that, it’ll be then ended on the ground. It’ll be won on the feet, ended on the ground.”

Brendan Allen was pegged as a future title contender after blowing the doors off Aaron Jeffery at Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in summer 2019, and he’s certainly looked the part across his last five fights — to the tune of five straight wins with four submission finishes. It’s probably not fair to poo-poo a 10-2 record at this level of competition, but technical knockout losses to Sean Strickland and Chris Curtis are hard to overlook when talking about the big picture.

Against Craig, they should do little to rattle anyone’s confidence.

“I’m definitely looking to knock him out,” Allen said at the UFC Vegas 82 media day. “100 percent, I’m looking to knock him out. Obviously, that’s the easier road to travel in my eyes. I’m expecting him to come out and be better than he was before, but I’m not scared to go to the ground with any man on this planet, especially at 185. I know how good I am.”

The bookies have Allen as the heavy favorite and rightly so. He’s younger, faster, and better on the feet. Just as importantly, he’s good enough on the ground to keep Craig at bay if the fight goes south. In addition, “Bearjew” continues to be reckless in the standup, going for broke to set up his takedowns. That’s likely to leave him defensively compromised and if Allen is the contender we think he is, based on what we’ve seen thus far, he’s going to take full advantage of that Scottish blitzkrieg and return fire, with fight-ending results.

Prediction: Allen def. Craig by technical knockout

170 lbs.: Michael Morales vs. Jake Matthews

Michael Morales

Record: 15-0 | Age: 23 | Betting line: -300
Wins: 11 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 3 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 6’0“ | Reach: 79” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.50 | Striking accuracy: 38%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.54 | Striking Defense: 48%
Takedown Average: 1.66 (45% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 91%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Max Griffin

Jake “The Celtic Kid” Matthews

Record: 19-6 | Age: 29 | Betting line: +240
Wins: 5 KO/TKO, 8 SUB, 6 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 3 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 5’11“ | Reach: 73” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.27 | Striking accuracy: 45%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.33 | Striking Defense: 60%
Takedown Average: 1.71 (41% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 61%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Submission win over Darrius Flowers

Michael Morales could very well be the future of the welterweight division. At just 23 years old, the Ecuadorian assassin has already captured three straight wins — two by knockout — after earning a UFC contract on Dana White’s “Contender Series” in late 2021. Let’s also recognize that Morales has not been recycling cans right out of the gate. Trevin Giles and Max Griffin have both been fighting inside the Octagon for over six years and Adam Fugitt is a former X1 champion on the regional circuit.

That trend continues this weekend at APEX.

“I think this is a great opportunity,” Morales said at the UFC Vegas 82 media day. “I’ve always respected my rivals due to their trajectory, I never discredit their work inside this great league of UFC. I just prepare myself and stay ready for whenever they call me. I’m always training after every fight. I’m very happy that I’m getting a more experienced rival. This also helps me see where I’m going. I think training and being ready always is something that I love doing. I’m just doing the work I always do.”

Jake Matthews was expected to be a future star when he made his Octagon debut against Dashon Johnson way back in early 2014. Like so many other promising fighters who can’t seem to marry talent with potential, “The Celtic Kid” struggled to stay consistent, building up an impressive win streak — then spoiling it with an ill-timed loss. Matthews appeared to return to form with a submission win over Darrius Flowers at UFC 291 just a few months back and to be fair, he’s still just 29 years old and has several years of his fighting prime still ahead of him.

“I always expect three rounds, but anything can happen,” Matthews said at the UFC Vegas 82 media day. “It would be good to get in and out quick, but I always expect a war in every fight that I get into. I got multiple ‘Fight of the Night’ bonuses, so I know I can go into deep waters and get those 15 minutes in. I know I can knock guys out early in the fight, and I know I can sub guys as well. However the fight goes, we’re ready. It’s definitely going to be a striking-heavy fight. We’re both primarily boxers. It’s whoever can implement their game plan.”

This looks to be a pretty even fight, stylistically speaking, even though the bookies have Morales as a sizable betting favorite. Matthews has both the experience and the durability to play upset against his younger opponent, who is also known to be a slow starter in terms of offense. That said, Morales has advantages in both height and reach and has already proven himself against tough, well-traveled opponents. If both combatants bring their A-game, we could be looking at “Fight of the Night” and a close decision victory that will likely swing in favor of Morales.

Prediction: Morales def. Matthews by decision

Don’t forget to check out the rest of the UFC Vegas 82 main card predictions RIGHT HERE.

MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 82 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ preliminary card bouts at 2 p.m. ET, followed by the ESPN+ main card start time at 5 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 82 news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here. For the updated and finalized “Allen vs. Craig” fight card and ESPN+ line up click here.