Predictions! UFC Austin ‘Prelims’ Preview – Pt. 1

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is bringing more “Prelims” fights to ESPN/ESPN+ this weekend (Sat., Dec. 2, 2023) when UFC Austin: “Dariush vs. Tsarukyan” returns to Moody Center in Texas. MMAmania.com’s Patrick Stumberg kicks off the UFC Austin “Prelims” party with the first installment of a two-part undercard preview series below.

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns from its holiday hiatus this Saturday (Dec. 2, 2023) when Beneil Dariush battles Arman Tsarukyan in a pivotal Lightweight clash. UFC Austin, which will take place inside Moody Center in Austin, Texas, will also see Rob Font welcome Deiveson Figueiredo to the Bantamweight division and Kelvin Gastelum make his long-awaited Welterweight return opposite Sean Brady.

Eight “Prelims” undercard bouts are on tap for UFC Austin, all of them on ESPN+ (main card simulcast on ESPN, too). Let’s check out the first batch …

145 lbs.: Steve Garcia vs. Melquizael Costa

Steve Garcia (14-5) bounced back from a 1-3 skid by winning four straight, only to fall to Luis Pena in his short notice UFC debut. Undaunted, he went on to win three of his next four inside the distance and earn his first post-fight bonus in the process.

Eleven of his professional wins, including all of them in the last five years, have come by knockout.

Melquizael Costa (20-6) likewise stepped up on short notice for his UFC debut, which saw him succumb to Thiago Moises’ rear-naked choke midway through the second. He was quite a bit more successful in his second bout, a one-sided mauling of Austin Lingo that earned Costa his eighth win in 10 fights.

“Melk” stands two inches shorter than “Mean Machine” and gives up two inches of reach.

Garcia has proven himself a fearsome glass cannon, but while the “cannon” part has been more prominent of late, we’re about due for a reminder on the “glass” bit. Beyond being a far sharper technical kickboxer than Garcia, Costa is exceedingly durable; his only (technical) knockout loss was a 2017 corner stoppage between rounds. With how few opportunities Garcia will have to land clean punches, an inability to put Costa down for the count with those shots seems like a death sentence.

This will look a lot like Costa’s fight with Lingo, with “Melk” dissecting his super-aggressive opponent with cleaner technique. The difference is that instead of getting cowed to the point of barely fighting back, Garcia will be reckless enough to run headlong into a fight-ending bomb.

Prediction: Costa via first round technical knockout

205 lbs.: Rodolfo Bellato vs. Ihor Potieria (20-4)

Three years after suffering his lone pro loss to Vitor Petrino, Rodolfo Bellato (11-2) got a second crack at his rival on Contender Series, only to once again succumb to Petrino’s power late in the second. He returned to Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) to win two straight and earn their interim Light Heavyweight title, then punched his ticket to the Octagon by battering Murtaza Talha in his second Contender Series bout.

His professional finishes are split 6:4 between knockouts and submissions.

Ihor Potieria (20-4) upset Lukasz Sudolski on Contender Series to claim both a UFC contract and his 15th consecutive win. “Duelist” currently sits at 1-2 in the Octagon, a finish of “Shogun” Rua sandwiched between knockout losses to Nicolae Negumereanu and Carlos Ulberg.

Fourteen of his 15 professional finishes have come in the first round.

It honestly feels like UFC is punishing Potieria for what he did to Shogun. First there was Ulberg — an atrocious style matchup by any definition — and now there’s Bellato, who out-classes Potieria in virtually every category besides one-shot power. Bellato has a more complete striking game and the grappling skills to punish Potieria’s awful takedown defense.

Even worse, Bellato’s cardio blows Potieria’s out of the water. There’s not much stopping him from grinding Potieria against the fence until the latter’s gas tank gives out and subsequently mauling him into submission. Though Bellato has been clipped before, Potieria is both a lesser puncher and a lesser striking technician than Petrino, so his odds of shocking Bellato with an out-of-nowhere haymaker are negligible. In the end, Bellato wears him down for a bit before turning up the heat for a violent finish.

Prediction: Bellato via second round technical knockout

170 lbs.: Wellington Turman vs. Jared Gooden

Wellington Turman (18-7) clawed his way out of a 1-3 skid with back-to-back victories over Sam Alvey and Misha Cirkunov. The success wasn’t to last, as “The Prodigy” then fell to Andre Petroski before losing a decision to Randy Brown in his UFC Welterweight debut.

Despite standing the same height as Jared Gordon (22-9), he faces a five-inch reach disadvantage.

A decision loss to Randy Brown, for which Gooden came in three pounds heavy, sent “Nite Train” packing from UFC with a 1-3 record. He returned in 2023 to battle Carlston Harris on short notice, only to come in six pounds heavy and lose another decision.

He’s ended 18 professional fights inside the distance, 11 of them via knockout.

This seems like culling, to be honest. Neither of these men are likely to beat any Welterweights of note, so the matchmakers might as well just smash ‘em together to find out who to cut. For my money, that’s Gooden. Beyond his inability to keep his weight in check, Gooden just can’t deal with takedowns; speaking as a fan of Carlston Harris, that’s not someone who should be racking up almost 10 minutes of control time on you, short notice be damned.

It’s not like Gooden will have an overwhelming advantage on the feet, either. Decent offense can’t make up for the fact that he gets hit nearly seven times per minute. So long as Turman can avoid getting clipped, he’ll hold his own on the feet and rack up takedowns to secure a wide decision win.

Prediction: Turman via unanimous decision

125 lbs.: Veronica Hardy vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth

Veronica Hardy (7-4-1) started her professional career undefeated (5-0-1) before hitting a 1-4 skid in the Octagon, capped by a decision loss to Bea Malecki. After spending the next three years on the sidelines, she returned to action in March 2023 with a dominant upset victory over Juliana Miller.

She gives up three inches of height and reach to Jamey-Lyn Horth (6-0).

Horth — who boasts two amateur victories over Lupita Godinez — claimed Battlefield Fight League’s Flyweight title and LFA’s Flyweight title in back-to-back fights. Then came a 16-month layoff, which ended with a successful April 2023 UFC debut against Hailey Cowan.

That win marked her first professional trip to the judges, as she’d previously knocked out three opponents and submitted two others.

This is a battle of speed versus size. Hardy has the better footwork and the sharper hands, but Horth is a fair bit larger and has the kicking skills to maximize those height and reach advantages. We saw Hardy look painfully limited against Malecki, whose literal only skill was being big, so it’s not hard to picture her struggling to get inside on or do meaningful damage to a genuinely skilled kickboxer.

That said, I really do believe Hardy turned the corner during her time away. Miller’s nonexistent striking gave an inflated impression of Hardy’s abilities, sure, but you’d be blind not to see the strides she made with her boxing and wrestling. Those hands should allow her to keep pace on the feet, while Horth’s tendency to lead with naked kicks will offer Hardy plenty of opportunities to drag it to the mat. When the dust settles, Horth will do plenty of damage, but I like Hardy to eke this one out.

Prediction: Hardy via split decision

Four more UFC Austin “Prelims” undercard bouts remain to preview and predict, including what could be a banger between Clay Guida vs. Joaquim SIlva. Same time tomorrow, Maniacs.

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Austin fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance on ESPN (also on ESPN+) at 7 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Austin: “Dariush vs. Tsarukyan” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.