Predictions! UFC Austin ‘Prelims’ Preview – Pt. 2

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is bringing more “Prelims” fights to ESPN/ESPN+ this weekend (Sat., Dec. 2, 2023) when UFC Austin: “Dariush vs. Tsarukyan” returns to Moody Center in Texas. MMAmania.com’s Patrick Stumberg continues the UFC Austin “Prelims” party with the second (and final) installment of a two-part undercard preview series below.

After a crushing loss to Charles Oliveira snapped his lengthy win streak, Beneil Dariush looks to re-enter Lightweight contention this weekend (Sat., Dec. 2, 2023) when he meets next-gen flag-bearer, Arman Tsarukyan, inside Moody Center in Austin, Texas. UFC Austin will also host Bobby Green’s battle with late replacement, Jalin Turner, and the 135-pound debut of former Flyweight roost-ruler, Deivson Figueiredo, opposite Bantamweight stalwart, Rob Font.

Four UFC Austin “Prelims” undercard bouts remain to be examined (checkout the first batch here), so strap in and let’s roll …

155 lbs.: Clay Guida vs. Joaquim Silva

Now more than 17 years removed from his Octagon debut against Justin James, Clay Guida (38-20) sits at 18-17 in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion. His last two fights have seen him gut out an upset split decision over Scott Holtzman before falling short against Rafa Garcia in April 2023.

He stands one inch shorter than Joaquim Silva (12-5), but boasts a slight reach advantage.

After falling to Glaico Franca in The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): Brazil 4 semifinals, “Netto BJJ” kicked off his UFC career with three straight wins. He’s since dropped four of six, including a technical knockout loss to Arman Tsarukyan in June 2023.

Seven of his 10 professional finishes have come via knockout.

The modern, 41-year-old Guida only wins if his opponent lacks one of three things: heart, cardio and functional takedown defense. Michael Johnson didn’t have heart, Leonardo Santos didn’t have cardio and Scott Holtzman didn’t have takedown defense. Though Silva’s durability is waning, nobody who’s watched “Netto BJJ’s” UFC tenure can accuse him of lacking heart or cardio, so the fight boils down to whether he can keep it standing.

I think he’s got it in him. Arman Tsarukyan controlled him for a long while, but with all due respect to Clay Guida, he’s not Arman Tsarukyan. Indeed, Guida is nowhere near as dangerous on the feet and lacks that level of technical wrestling skill. Without the threat of a one-hitter quitter coming his way, Silva can focus on takedown defense without limiting his impressive striking output. In the end, Silva sprawls-and-brawls his way to an entertaining decision win.

Prediction: Silva via unanimous decision

135 lbs.: Miesha Tate vs. Julia Avila

Miesha Tate (20-9) — a former UFC Bantamweight women’s champion — hung up the gloves in 2016 after losses to Amanda Nunes and Raquel Pennington. “Cupcake” made a successful return to action five years later, stopping Marion Reneau, but has since lost two straight to Ketlen Vieira and Lauren Murphy.

She gives up one inch of height and three inches of reach to Julia Avila (9-2).

Avila started her UFC career strong with a decision over late replacement Pannie Kianzad in July 2019. “Raging Panda” has competed just three times since, going 2-1 amidst nine cancelations.

This marks her first appearance in 2.5 years.

This is really a question of how much each woman has left in the tank. Were both at their peak, I’d take Tate with full confidence, as Avila’s vicious striking offense is offset by questionable takedown defense and a weak bottom game. Considering how many times we’ve seen Tate power through serious damage to grind out wins, it’s unquestionably a favorable matchup from a style and technique perspective.

The problem is, I’m not convinced Tate has that extra gear anymore, and getting out-struck by Murphy bodes ill for her chances on the feet. While it’s anyone’s guess how Avila will look after a long layoff and knee surgery, she’s bigger than Tate and hits a fair bit harder. Maybe this is just my desire to see Avila live up to her potential speaking, but expect her to out-hustle Tate to a competitive decision.

Prediction: Avila via unanimous decision

185 lbs.: Zachary Reese vs. Cody Brundage

Zachary Reese (6-0) racked up five first round finishes to earn a spot on Contender Series in 2023. It took him just 74 seconds to score his sixth with an impressive armbar of Eli Aronov.

Five of his six professional bouts have ended in less than two minutes.

Cody Brundage (9-5) went from scoring back-to-back Octagon finishes to losing three in a row. He looked poised to suffer his fourth straight defeat against Jacob Malkoun, but walked away with a much-needed disqualification win after Malkoun elbowed him in the back of the head.

He stands four inches shorter than Reese and faces a five-inch reach disadvantage.

The ingredients are there for Brundage to be a solid Middleweight. Many a fighter has built a lengthy career out of decent wrestling and a heavy right hand. He just completely gives up the microsecond he ends up on his back. Not since Sara McMann have I seen someone so incapable of putting up the slightest resistance when placed in a disadvantageous position.

That’s why I can’t pick him here.

Reese isn’t anything special outside of his size, but neither was Sedriques Dumas and Brundage still found a way to lose. If Brundage’s head is on straight, he can bully Reese and drown him in deep waters, but I’m done expecting that sort of mental fortitude from him. On the contrary, expect Brundage to shove his neck directly into Reese’s guillotine or find some other, equally embarrassing way to beef it.

Prediction: Reese via second round submission

155 lbs.: Drakkar Klose vs. Joe Solecki

Drakkar Klose (13-2-1) battled his way to a 5-1 UFC start, notably beating Bobby Green along the way, before falling short in a wild six-minute brawl with Beneil Dariush. He’s since returned to form with a bonus-winning knockout of Brandon Jenkins and hard-fought decision over Rafa Garcia.

He fights for the first time in 16 months.

Joe Solecki (13-3) followed his Contender Series victory over James Wallace by winning his first three UFC bouts. Though a split decision loss to Jared Gordon slowed his momentum, he enters the cage this Saturday having won two straight.

He’s submitted eight professional foes and knocked out one other.

Klose’s grappling defense is the deciding factor here. He’ll bulldoze Solecki if it stays on the feet for any length of time, but he’s had mixed success against determined wrestlers in the past. Garcia notably kept him on his back for nearly a half-round in total, becoming the seventh UFC opponent to take down Klose at least once.

There’s a critical difference between Garcia and Solecki though: Garcia is an actual threat on the feet. Klose should be more successful keeping it standing against the more one-dimensional Solecki, especially since Solecki had his hands full with another very athletic aggressor in Alex da Silva before “Leko” ran out of steam. Solecki is a live dog with a real shot at grinding out Klose, but with how difficult Klose is to finish and the sort of punishment he can dish out, expect Klose to wriggle out of a few rough spots before beating him into submission.

Prediction: Klose via second round technical knockout

UFC Austin is not a bad fight night lineup at all. See you Saturday, Maniacs.

Current Prediction Record for 2023: 174-89-3 (5 NC)

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Austin fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance on ESPN (also on ESPN+) at 7 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Austin: “Dariush vs. Tsarukyan” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.