UFC Austin: ‘Dariush Vs. Tsarukyan’ Predictions

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Austin mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., Dec. 2, 2023) on ESPN and ESPN+ from inside Moody Center in Austin, Texas, featuring a lightweight main event between Top 10 title hopefuls Beneil Dariush and Arman Tsarukyan, a five-round headliner with serious title implications for early 2024 and beyond.

Before we dive into the main and co-main events, which includes the 155-pound showdown between Bobby Green and late replacement Jalin Turner (thanks to an untimely injury to Dan Hooker), check out Patrick Stumberg’s UFC Austin preliminary card breakdowns (con carne, like any respectable Texan) by clicking here and here. In addition, resident rock climber Andrew Richardson did most of the heavy lifting for the rest of the UFC Austin main card right here. For the latest “Dariush vs. Tsarukyan” odds and betting lines courtesy of our fiscal friends over at Draft Kings go here.

Let’s break it down.

155 lbs.: Beneil Dariush vs. Arman Tsarukyan

Beneil Dariush

Record: 22-5-1 | Age: 34 | Betting line: +250
Wins: 5 KO/TKO, 8 SUB, 9 DEC | Losses: 4 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 5’10“ | Reach: 72” | Stance: Southpaw
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.79 | Striking accuracy: 49%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.63 | Striking Defense: 58%
Takedown Average: 1.91 (34% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 80%
Current Ranking: No. 4 | Last fight: Technical knockout loss to Charles Oliveira

Arman “Ahalkalakets” Tsarukyan

Record: 20-3 | Age: 27 | Betting line: -310
Wins: 8 KO/TKO, 5 SUB, 7 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 5’7“ | Reach: 72” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.82 | Striking accuracy: 48%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 1.91 | Striking Defense: 54%
Takedown Average: 3.43 (36% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 75%
Current Ranking: No. 8 | Last fight: Technical knockout win over Joaquim Silva

Beneil Dariush put together an impressive eight-fight win streak at 155 pounds, one of the most stacked divisions in the sport, and was complaining about the promotion’s unwillingness to award him a lightweight title shot. Dariush would get the second-best thing in the form of ex-champion Charles Oliveira … then got summarily destroyed in the first round of their UFC 289 showdown.

That forces us to ask hard questions about the streak that got him into the title conversation — without taking anything away from Oliveira, who is certainly capable of laying waste to anyone in the Top 5 (Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje come to mind). But outside of No. 6-ranked Mateusz Gamrot, Dariush hasn’t beaten anyone in the Top 10. Now he’s tasked with turning away one of the brightest prospects at 155 pounds.

“I think he’s a stud,” Dariush said at the UFC Austin media day. “If you look at him in every aspect, he can fight: He can grapple, he can strike, he can mix it up. He’s 27 – he’s a young kid, and that makes him dangerous. When you’re young, you grow in leaps and bounds. I don’t look at him as the last fight or the fight before that. I look at him as a better version. What can he do to be better? I look at that version and prepare for that version.”

“I think the edge is going to be in experience,” Dariush said. “I think I’m more experienced and I can find little things here and there to create a greater gap between our skill set. I’m hoping I can create that gap and then find that finish, whether it’s a submission or a knockout. But the requirement is to be able to pull away slowly, because our skill levels are so close and his style is so good that I will have to break him little by little.”

Arman Tsarukyan is no stranger to win streaks. After losing a unanimous decision to Islam Makhachev at UFC St. Petersburg, “Ahalkalakets” put together a 7-1 run which includes victories over Olivier Aubin-Mercier and Matt Frevola, just to name a few. That said, we can make the same critique of his UFC record that we did with Dariush because Tsarukyan has failed to beat anyone ranked in the lightweight Top 10, falling to the aforementioned Gamrot at UFC Vegas 57. Now he’s up against an experienced veteran with a punishing wrestling attack and sneaky submissions.

“Finally, I got a big fight, and I’m so excited,” Tsarukyan said. “If I finish him, I can talk about a title fight. He’s a well-rounded fighter. I think he’s going to wait for what I’m going to do and check out what my game plan is going to be, then try to defend my wrestling and strike with me, and I think he wants to try to take me down, too.”

Both fighters will rely on their wrestling for the UFC Austin main event and the only time either of them were outwrestled over the last five years was against Gamrot. It’s also worth mentioning that both fighters have racked up four performance bonuses during that span so I’m not terribly concerned about a boring fight; however, expect this contest to favor the better wrestler. It’s hard to pick against the younger Tsarukyan, but I wouldn’t rule out an upset by the crafty veteran. If you’re betting on UFC Austin, stay away from this fight.

Prediction: Tsarukyan def. Dariush by decision

155 lbs.: Bobby Green vs. Jalin Turner

“King” Bobby Green

Record: 31-14-1, 1 NC | Age: 37 | Betting line: +170
Wins: 11 KO/TKO, 9 SUB, 11 DEC | Losses: 4 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 8 DEC
Height: 5’10“ | Reach: 71” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 6.15 | Striking accuracy: 52%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.66 | Striking Defense: 62%
Takedown Average: 1.21 (37% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 74%
Current Ranking: No. 13 | Last fight: Knockout win over Grant Dawson

Jalin “The Tarantula” Turner

Record: 13-7 | Age: 28 | Betting line: -205
Wins: 9 KO/TKO, 4 SUB, 0 DEC | Losses: 3 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 4 DEC
Height: 6’3“ | Reach: 77” | Stance: Southpaw
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.82 | Striking accuracy: 48%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.61 | Striking Defense: 41%
Takedown Average: 0.91 (55% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 75%
Current Ranking: No. 12 | Last fight: Split decision loss to Dan Hooker

Bobby Green, who turned 37 back in September, has been something of a late bloomer, at least in terms of star power, after more than a decade of fighting under the UFC banner. “King” recently captured back-to-back victories over Tony Ferguson and Grant Dawson to move into the No. 13 spot in the 155-pound rankings. You can attribute the Ferguson win to the fall of “El Cucuy,” who has looked progressively worse each time out, but it’s hard to be blasé about Green’s 33-second destruction of Dawson, a lightweight wrecking ball (and -425 betting favorite) who was running the table until Green demolished it with a brutal left hand.

Now Green gets to fight another ranked opponent in the form of Jalin Turner, who steps in for the injured Dan Hooker on super short notice.

“It really sucks because [the Hooker fight] had ‘Fight of the Night’ on it,” Green said at the UFC Austin media day. “But I think me and Jalin are going to do our thing, too. My most important thing is just setting out classics, stuff that can be watched, something that’s timeless, and keep getting those ‘Fight of the Night’ awards. That’s where I was really at with it, but I think Jalin is going to do the same thing. Especially in that first round or two, he comes really hard. I’m expecting that from him. Be careful, make sure I don’t make any mistakes, and I’m going to go in there and try and take his head off.”

Turner is nine years younger than Green and has power. He’s also got a tremendous advantage in both height (5”) and reach (6”). “The Tarantula” is coming off back-to-back decision losses to Mateusz Gamrot and Dan Hooker, a pair of ranked fighters and two of the toughest outs in the division. The bookies have Turner listed as the 2-to-1 favorite and normally I would agree with them, but the Californian is taking this bout on super short notice and at his considerable size, I have to imagine he’s enduring a very difficult weight cut. In fact, I will be surprised if he makes weight on his first attempt.

He’s also fighting an opponent who is not only from his hometown, but also someone he admired for many years.

“It’s just business, it’s just work; I’ve got to separate the two,” Turner told UFC.com. “That’s something you’ve gotta do when you look up to somebody. It’s part of my journey, part of my path, and I just gotta go do what I gotta do. It sends a big message back home. We both came from the same area, we’re both successful in our fields. It’s bittersweet having to face someone else successful like you when we could have lifted each other up a little more, but, like I said, at the end of the day, it’s business, and I have to go handle business.”

Turner is the better fighter but will be completely out of sorts on Sat. night, thanks to his brutal weight cut and inability to have a fight camp. He’s also fighting a version of Green who is red hot with his confidence at an all-time high. Unless “King” makes a rookie mistake in the opening frame, or gets a little too cocky in their initial exchanges, he’ll probably keep the pressure on until Turner fades and becomes defensively compromised.

Prediction: Green def. Turner by knockout

Remember, get the rest of the UFC Austin main card predictions RIGHT HERE.

MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Austin fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ preliminary card bouts at 4 p.m. ET, followed by the ESPN/ESPN+ main card start time at 7 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Austin news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archives here and here. For the updated and finalized “Dariush vs. Tsarukyan” fight card and ESPN/ESPN+ line up click here.